May 2024

[Cpv17]

The 12z GFS even through the end of its run continues to advertise another long duration of wet weather, im also hearing that the death ridge may set up shop more over the SW US and not directly over us for the summer, that may provide us with opportunities for most rain and a steady moisture feed coming from the gulf/ caribbean, but that also will leave texas open for tropical systems potentially

Yes, I anticipate to GoM being open for business this summer. A double-edged sword for sure.

Unfortunately, I will put great money on the notion that the Upper TX coast will get walloped this season. I live here (Galveston County), so I’m not thrilled about thinking it or saying it, but I have a really sinking, foreboding feeling about this.

That’d be fine with me cuz I’d be on the clean side.

[Pas_Bon]

Yes, I anticipate to GoM being open for business this summer. A double-edged sword for sure.

Unfortunately, I will put great money on the notion that the Upper TX coast will get walloped this season. I live here (Galveston County), so I’m not thrilled about thinking it or saying it, but I have a really sinking, foreboding feeling about this.

That’d be fine with me cuz I’d be on the clean side.

Booo!

Callin’ us dirty, baw? Lol

[Cpv17]

Unfortunately, I will put great money on the notion that the Upper TX coast will get walloped this season. I live here (Galveston County), so I’m not thrilled about thinking it or saying it, but I have a really sinking, foreboding feeling about this.

That’d be fine with me cuz I’d be on the clean side.

Booo!

Callin’ us dirty, baw? Lol

[Cpv17]

Monday evening we may see some action but most of us should stay dry till then. The northern third of the area is gonna get pummeled over the next couple days though. This is just really annoying at this point.

[jasons2k]

Interview in NC went well today. So well that the VP gave me a verbal notice of intent to hire and said he wanted to spend his time with me to close in on an initial offer range before I traveled home. Written one will be forthcoming Monday

That's great! Wishing you the best.

Yes, Cromagnum - congrats and I hope it works out for you!

[srainhoutx]

Interview in NC went well today. So well that the VP gave me a verbal notice of intent to hire and said he wanted to spend his time with me to close in on an initial offer range before I traveled home. Written one will be forthcoming Monday

Congratulations! Where in NC?

[don]

Some of the models are showing signs of supercell development in SE Texas on Monday.Main threat appears to be large hail and damaging winds.If confidence increases i wouldn't be surprised to see a upgrade to an enhanced risk eventually.

[Cromagnum]

Interview in NC went well today. So well that the VP gave me a verbal notice of intent to hire and said he wanted to spend his time with me to close in on an initial offer range before I traveled home. Written one will be forthcoming Monday

Congratulations! Where in NC?

Just northeast of Charlotte.

[Stratton20]

Something to watch very closely, at least one mesoscale model in this case the WRF, suggests a really heavy rain band could set up over the city late sunday night- monday with another line of storms on tuesday, impressive totals on this model, something to watch for fwiw
Edit: The 00z GFS keeps a very active wet pattern going through the next 10 days at least, with a couple more systems and chances for heavy rain beyond tuesday

[don]

Something to watch very closely, at least one mesoscale model in this case the WRF, suggests a really heavy rain band could set up over the city late sunday night- monday with another line of storms on tuesday, impressive totals on this model, something to watch for fwiw
Edit: The 00z GFS keeps a very active wet pattern going through the next 10 days at least, with a couple more systems and chances for heavy rain beyond tuesday

I noticed that model run also.But its the only model showing such an event tomorrow.So I am going to assume at this time it's a fluke run.

[jasons2k]

Watching that cell near Jersey Village. Might go severe. Also watching that right-turner near Calvert. That’s a bad one.

[jasons2k]

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1026 AM CDT Sun May 12 2024

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT SOUTHEASTERN MONTGOMERY AND NORTHEASTERN HARRIS COUNTIES THROUGH 1100 AM CDT...

At 1026 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over Greater Inwood, or near Jersey Village, moving northeast at 25 mph.

HAZARD...Pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Minor hail damage to vegetation is possible.

Locations impacted include... Humble, Jersey Village, Aldine, Northside / Northline, Kingwood, Greater Greenspoint, Spring, The Woodlands, Oak Ridge North, Shenandoah, Bush Intercontinental Airport, Eastex / Jensen Area, The Woodlands Pavillion, Chateau Woods, Willowbrook, El Dorado / Oates Prairie, Hidden Valley, Acres Home, Settegast, and Atascocita.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 300 PM CDT for southeastern Texas.

&&

TIME...MOT...LOC 1526Z 214DEG 22KT 2991 9550

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...<30 MPH

$$

Fowler

[Cpv17]

Watching that cell near Jersey Village. Might go severe. Also watching that right-turner near Calvert. That’s a bad one.

Thursday will need to be watched for severe weather as well.

[DoctorMu]

We haven't seem much rain (0.13 in) until a streamer shower just hit us from the back door. I had planned to get a little backyard mowing in.

The main rain and severe weather have remained to our north - Hearne and Buffalo

[jasons2k]

TORNADO WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE FOR WT 233
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1230 PM CDT SUN MAY 12 2024

TORNADO WATCH 233 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 700 PM CDT FOR THE
FOLLOWING LOCATIONS

TXC071-199-201-241-245-291-339-351-361-373-407-457-473-130000-
/O.NEW.KWNS.TO.A.0233.240512T1730Z-240513T0000Z/

TX
. TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

CHAMBERS HARDIN HARRIS
JASPER JEFFERSON LIBERTY
MONTGOMERY NEWTON ORANGE
POLK SAN JACINTO TYLER
WALLER
$$

[captainbarbossa19]

Hi everyone. The severe storm is Jefferson County is awful. We had baseball sized hail at our farm. Never has happened before. Unfortunately, I don't have any pictures as I am still in Mississippi.

[brazoriatx]

Damn, we can't get nothing south of I10

[Cromagnum]

Not a drop at home. Visiting folks in Crosby for mom's day and it's been raining off and on pretty hard at times.

[Cpv17]

We haven't seem much rain (0.13 in) until a streamer shower just hit us from the back door. I had planned to get a little backyard mowing in.

The main rain and severe weather have remained to our north - Hearne and Buffalo

I’d watch later this evening for some bad stuff your way.

[don]

Tornado watch issued.The HRRR shows more storms developing in the metro in a few hours along a warm front.

ww0233_overview_wou.gif (49.94 KiB) Viewed 177 times

Screenshot 2024-05-12 at 13-24-47 Models HRRR - Pivotal Weather.png (86.85 KiB) Viewed 169 times

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Tornado Watch Number 233
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1230 PM CDT Sun May 12 2024

The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a

* Tornado Watch for portions of
Southwest Louisiana
Southeast Texas
Coastal Waters

* Effective this Sunday afternoon and evening from 1230 PM until
700 PM CDT.

* Primary threats include...
A couple tornadoes possible
Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2
inches in diameter possible

SUMMARY...The threat for supercells with a couple of tornadoes will
slowly increase through the afternoon as a warm front moves slowly
northward across southeast Texas and southwest Louisiana. The
tornado threat will be greater with storms along the warm front.
Storms along and to the cool side of the front will pose a threat
for large hail of 1-2 inches in diameter, as well as isolated
damaging gusts of 60-70 mph.

The tornado watch area is approximately along and 35 statute miles
north and south of a line from 120 miles west of Port Arthur TX to
35 miles east northeast of Lake Charles LA. For a complete depiction
of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS
WOU3).