TD Karl Inland West of Veracruz, MX

[srainhoutx]

Center continues to drop WSW...

Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC)
Transmitted: 17th day of the month at 14:23Z
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 301)
Storm Number & Year: 13L in 2010
Storm Name: Karl (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 5
Observation Number: 14
A. Time of Center Fix: 17th day of the month at 14:12:40Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 19°27'N 95°52'W (19.45N 95.8667W)
B. Center Fix Location: 213 miles (343 km) to the E (89°) from México City, Distrito Federal, México.
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 2,798m (9,180ft) at 700mb
D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind: 86kts (~ 99.0mph)
E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind: 9 nautical miles (10 statute miles) to the NW (323°) of center fix
F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 46° at 97kts (From the NE at ~ 111.6mph)
G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 8 nautical miles (9 statute miles) to the NW (324°) of center fix
H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 959mb (28.32 inHg)
I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 16°C (61°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,060m (10,039ft)
J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 16°C (61°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,026m (9,928ft)
K. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 12°C (54°F)
K. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
L. Eye Character: Closed
M. Eye Shape & Diameter: Circular with a diameter of 10 nautical miles (12 statute miles)
N. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Radar, Wind and Pressure
N. Fix Level: 700mb
O. Navigation Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles
O. Meteorological Accuracy: 0 nautical miles
Remarks Section:
Maximum Wind Outbound: 118kts (~ 135.8mph) in the southeast quadrant at 14:14:40Z
Maximum Flight Level Wind: 118kts (~ 135.8mph) in the southeast quadrant at 14:14:40Z
Maximum Flight Level Temp: 18°C (64°F) which was observed 7 nautical miles to the NW (325°) from the flight level center

[srainhoutx]

000
WTNT33 KNHC 171446
TCPAT3
BULLETIN
HURRICANE KARL ADVISORY NUMBER 13
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132010
1000 AM CDT FRI SEP 17 2010

...CENTER OF MAJOR HURRICANE KARL EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL ALONG
THE GULF COAST OF MEXICO WITHIN THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS...


SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.4N 95.9W
ABOUT 25 MI...40 KM NE OF VERACRUZ MEXICO
ABOUT 145 MI...235 KM SE OF TUXPAN MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...120 MPH...195 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 260 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...967 MB...28.56 INCHES

[srainhoutx]

Very near shore now...

Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC)
Transmitted: 17th day of the month at 15:42Z
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 301)
Storm Number & Year: 13L in 2010
Storm Name: Karl (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 5
Observation Number: 19
A. Time of Center Fix: 17th day of the month at 15:27:30Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 19°23'N 96°00'W (19.3833N 96.W)
B. Center Fix Location: 204 miles (329 km) to the E (91°) from México City, Distrito Federal, México.
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 2,858m (9,377ft) at 700mb
D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind: 107kts (~ 123.1mph)
E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind: 2 nautical miles (2 statute miles) to the E (100°) of center fix
F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 201° at 109kts (From the SSW at ~ 125.4mph)
G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 7 nautical miles (8 statute miles) to the E (96°) of center fix
H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 972mb (28.70 inHg)
I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 5°C (41°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,074m (10,085ft)
J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 15°C (59°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,072m (10,079ft)
K. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 12°C (54°F)
K. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
L. Eye Character: Closed
M. Eye Shape & Diameter: Circular with a diameter of 8 nautical miles
N. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Radar, Wind, Pressure and Temperature
N. Fix Level: 700mb
O. Navigation Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles
O. Meteorological Accuracy: 2 nautical miles
Remarks Section:
Maximum Flight Level Wind: 118kts (~ 135.8mph) in the southeast quadrant at 14:14:40Z

[srainhoutx]

Appears landfall will be just N of Veracruz...

[srainhoutx]

000
WTNT63 KNHC 171702
TCUAT3
HURRICANE KARL TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132010
1200 PM CDT FRI SEP 17 2010

...KARL MAKES LANDFALL ON THE SOUTHWEST GULF COAST OF MEXICO...

MEXICAN RADAR OBSERVATIONS AND SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE
CENTER OF HURRICANE KARL MADE LANDFALL ON THE SOUTHWEST COAST OF
MEXICO ABOUT 10 MILES...15 KM...NORTH OF VERACRUZ MEXICO NEAR 1130
AM CDT...1630 UTC. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS AT LANDFALL WERE
ESTIMATED TO BE 115 MPH...185 KM/HR.

SUMMARY OF 1130 AM CDT...1630 UTC...INFORMATION
--------------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.3N 96.2W
ABOUT 10 MI...15 KM N OF VERACRUZ MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115 MPH...185 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WSW OR 255 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...976 MB...29.82 INCHES

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

[Paul]

CMC pretty much pegged this guy....still got to wonder how long those remains hang out down there.....I see Karl is sending us some squall line right now....nice little breeze and rain now in Pearland.....

hello Karl....see you in a few years if you dont get retired....

[srainhoutx]

000
WTNT33 KNHC 171748
TCPAT3
BULLETIN
HURRICANE KARL INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 13A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132010
100 PM CDT FRI SEP 17 2010

...CENTER OF KARL NOW INLAND JUST TO THE WEST OF VERACRUZ MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 100 PM CDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.2N 96.4W
ABOUT 15 MI...25 KM W OF VERACRUZ MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...110 MPH...175 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WSW OR 255 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...979 MB...28.91 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF MEXICO FROM VERACRUZ TO CABO ROJO

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF MEXICO NORTH OF CABO ROJO TO LA CRUZ

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF MEXICO NORTH OF CABO ROJO TO LA CRUZ
* THE COAST OF MEXICO SOUTH OF VERACRUZ TO PUNTA EL LAGARTO

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 100 PM CDT...1800 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE KARL WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 19.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 96.4 WEST. KARL IS MOVING
TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH...13 KM/HR...AND A MOTION
TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST OR WEST IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT
48 HOURS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF KARL SHOULD MOVE
FARTHER INLAND OVER SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 110 MPH...
175 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. KARL IS NOW A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE
ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE. CONTINUED WEAKENING IS
EXPECTED AS THE CENTER OF KARL MOVES FARTHER INLAND.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES...35 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO
90 MILES...150 KM. AN AUTOMATED STATION IN THE HARBOR AT VERACRUZ
MEXICO RECENTLY REPORTED 10-MINUTE MEAN WINDS OF 65 MPH...105
KM/HR... AND A WIND GUST OF 94 MPH...152 KM/HR.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 979 MB...28.91 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
STORM SURGE...A DANGEROUS STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY
AS MUCH AS 12 TO 15 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE COAST NEAR AND TO THE NORTH OF WHERE THE CENTER MAKES
LANDFALL. NEAR THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE
AND DESTRUCTIVE WAVES.

WIND...HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS ARE OCCURRING NEAR THE CENTER OF KARL
IN THE WARNING AREA. THESE WINDS WILL SPREAD INLAND ALONG THE
TRACK OF THE CENTER THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING.

RAINFALL...KARL IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 5
TO 10 INCHES ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN MEXICAN GULF COAST
REGION...WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES POSSIBLE IN THE
INTERIOR MOUNTAINS. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH
FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...400 PM CDT.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

[srainhoutx]

000
WTNT43 KNHC 172031
TCDAT3
HURRICANE KARL DISCUSSION NUMBER 14
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132010
400 PM CDT FRI SEP 17 2010

KARL MADE LANDFALL JUST NORTH-NORTHWEST OF VERACRUZ MEXICO AT
ABOUT 1630Z. BEFORE LANDFALL...THE CENTRAL PRESSURE RAPIDLY ROSE
FROM 957 MB TO 976 MB OVER A 4.5 HOUR PERIOD FOR REASONS THAT ARE
NOT READILY APPARENT. DESPITE THIS...THE AIRCRAFT-REPORTED WINDS
SUPPORTED MAJOR HURRICANE INTENSITY UNTIL LANDFALL. SINCE LANDFALL
THE HURRICANE HAS STEADILY WEAKENED...AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF
80 KT MAY BE A BIT GENEROUS. KARL SHOULD CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AS IT
MOVES OVER THE MOUNTAINS OF MEXICO...AND THE CYCLONE IS LIKELY TO
DISSIPATE COMPLETELY BY 48 HR.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 250/8. A MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER NORTHERN MEXICO
SHOULD CONTINUE TO STEER KARL TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST OR WEST
UNTIL DISSIPATION.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 17/2100Z 19.1N 96.6W 80 KT...INLAND
12HR VT 18/0600Z 18.8N 97.7W 50 KT...INLAND
24HR VT 18/1800Z 18.7N 99.1W 30 KT...INLAND
36HR VT 19/0600Z 18.7N 100.6W 25 KT...INLAND
48HR VT 19/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

[wxman57]

Now a TS and weakening very fast in the high terrain of Mexico. Probably won't be much left of it by morning:

TROPICAL STORM KARL INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 14A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132010
700 PM CDT FRI SEP 17 2010

...KARL WEAKENING RAPIDLY OVER THE HIGH MOUNTAINS OF MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 700 PM CDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.8N 97.1W
ABOUT 75 MI..115 KM E OF PUEBLA MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...115 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WSW OR 250 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...995 MB...29.38 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 700 PM CDT...0000 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KARL WAS
LOCATED WELL INLAND MEXICO NEAR LATITUDE 18.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE
97.1 WEST. KARL IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH...15
KM/HR...AND A CONTINUED MOTION TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST IS
EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE
CENTER OF KARL SHOULD MOVE FARTHER INLAND OVER SOUTH CENTRAL MEXICO
TONIGHT AND SATURDAY.

SATELLITE IMAGES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS FROM MEXICO INDICATE THAT
KARL IS WEAKENING RAPIDLY OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 70 MPH...115 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS...AND THESE WINDS ARE CONFINED TO A VERY SMALL AREA NEAR THE
CENTER. ADDITIONAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST...AND KARL IS EXPECTED TO
WEAKEN TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION LATER TONIGHT OR SATURDAY...AND
DISSIPATE OVER THE MOUNTAINS OF MEXICO ON SUNDAY.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 50 MILES...80 KM.

[Andrew]

Now a TS and weakening very fast in the high terrain of Mexico. Probably won't be much left of it by morning:

Yea I totally agree. Almost all convection is gone and I don't even think it is a TS now....

[srainhoutx]

000
WTNT33 KNHC 180232
TCPAT3
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION KARL ADVISORY NUMBER 15
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132010
1000 PM CDT FRI SEP 17 2010

...KARL EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE SOON OVER THE HIGH MOUNTAINS OF
SOUTHERN MEXICO...

SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.6N 97.4W
ABOUT 55 MI...85 KM ESE OF PUEBLA MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WSW OR 250 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION KARL
WAS LOCATED INLAND MEXICO NEAR LATITUDE 18.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 97.4
WEST. THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST NEAR 7
MPH...11 KM/HR. THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT
6 TO 12 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 35 MPH...55
KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. KARL IS FORECAST TO DISSIPATE DURING THE
NEXT 6 TO 12 HOURS.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1000 MB...29.53 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------

RAINFALL...KARL IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL RAINFALL
ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 5 INCHES ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN
MEXICO...WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES POSSIBLE IN THE
MOUNTAINS. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS
AND MUD SLIDES.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...400 AM CDT.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

[Andrew]

000
WTNT33 KNHC 180830
TCPAT3
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION KARL ADVISORY NUMBER 16
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132010
400 AM CDT SAT SEP 18 2010

...KARL DISSIPATES OVER THE HIGH MOUNTAINS OF SOUTHERN MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 400 AM CDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.5N 97.6W
ABOUT 105 MI...165 KM WSW OF VERACRUZ MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...25 MPH...35 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WSW OR 250 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 400 AM CDT...0900 UTC...THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION KARL
ARE LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 97.6 WEST. THE
SYSTEM IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST NEAR 3 MPH...6 KM/HR...
AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TODAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE TO DECREASED TO NEAR 25 MPH...35
KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH AS THE
SYSTEM WEAKENS FURTHER TODAY.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB...29.71 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL...KARL IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL RAINFALL
ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN MEXICO.
THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD
SLIDES.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
THIS IS THE LAST PUBLIC ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM.

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE