TD Karl Inland West of Veracruz, MX

[srainhoutx]

000
WTNT63 KNHC 161158
TCUAT3
TROPICAL STORM KARL TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132010
700 AM CDT THU SEP 16 2010

...AIR FORCE AIRCRAFT FINDS KARL STRONGER...SPECIAL ADVISORY
FORTHCOMING...

RECENT DATA FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT
INDICATE THAT TROPICAL STORM KARL HAS MAXIMUM WINDS OF NEAR
65 MPH...100 KM/HR...AND A MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 986 MB...
29.12 IN.

A SPECIAL ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED SHORTLY IN LIEU OF THE 700 AM
CDT...1200 UTC INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY.

SUMMARY OF 700 AM CDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
--------------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.6N 92.1W
ABOUT 105 MI...170 KM W OF CAMPECHE MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 285 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...986 MB...29.26 INCHES

$$
FORECASTER STEWART/BEVEN

[srainhoutx]

Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC)
Transmitted: 16th day of the month at 12:01Z
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 308)
Storm Number & Year: 13L in 2010
Storm Name: Karl (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 3
Observation Number: 05
A. Time of Center Fix: 16th day of the month at 11:37:40Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 19°37'N 92°07'W (19.6167N 92.1167W) (View map)
B. Center Fix Location: 105 miles (169 km) to the W (261°) from Campeche, Campeche, México.
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 1,297m (4,255ft) at 850mb
D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind: 56kts (~ 64.4mph)
E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind: 10 nautical miles (12 statute miles) to the NNE (30°) of center fix
F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 107° at 71kts (From the ESE at ~ 81.7mph)
G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 19 nautical miles (22 statute miles) to the NNE (31°) of center fix
H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 987mb (29.15 inHg)
I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 14°C (57°F) at a pressure alt. of 1,522m (4,993ft)
J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 21°C (70°F) at a pressure alt. of 1,524m (5,000ft)
K. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 10°C (50°F)
K. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
L. Eye Character: Open in the west-northwest
M. Eye Shape: Elliptical (oval shaped)
M. Orientation of Major Axis in Elliptical Eye: 330° to 150° (NNW to SSE)
M. Length of Major Axis in Elliptical Eye: 25 nautical miles (29 statute miles)
M. Length of Minor Axis in Elliptical Eye: 15 nautical miles (17 statute miles)
N. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Radar, Wind, Pressure and Temperature
N. Fix Level: 850mb
O. Navigation Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles
O. Meteorological Accuracy: 2 nautical miles
Remarks Section:
Maximum Flight Level Wind: 71kts (~ 81.7mph) in the northeast quadrant at 11:31:40Z

[srainhoutx]

000
WTNT43 KNHC 161224
TCDAT3
TROPICAL STORM KARL SPECIAL DISCUSSION NUMBER 8
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132010
730 AM CDT THU SEP 16 2010

AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT FOUND THAT KARL WAS
SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK BY ABOUT 30 N MI. THE PLANE
MEASURED A CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 987 MB...WITH FLIGHT-LEVEL AND SFMR
WINDS SUPPORTING AN INITIAL INTENSITY OF 55 KT. THIS SPECIAL
ADVISORY IS BEING ISSUED TO SHIFT THE FIRST 36-48 HR OF THE
FORECAST TRACK SOUTHWARD AND TO SIGNIFICANTLY INCREASE THE
INTENSITY FORECAST.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 16/1230Z 19.7N 92.2W 55 KT
12HR VT 16/1800Z 20.1N 93.7W 65 KT
24HR VT 17/0600Z 20.5N 94.5W 75 KT
36HR VT 17/1800Z 20.8N 96.8W 85 KT
48HR VT 18/0600Z 21.0N 98.5W 75 KT...INLAND
72HR VT 19/0600Z 21.0N 101.0W 25 KT...INLAND
96HR VT 20/0600Z 21.0N 103.5W 20 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120HR VT 21/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

[srainhoutx]

LGEM shot up 20 kts between the 0z and 6z guidance and started noticing a eye possibly trying to form over the last hour or so that was confirmed by the latest disco.

After talking all night with Josh and the recent developments it's looking like he may give it a go. We both felt that one more package should seal the deal and he will make a final decision then. Might really ramp up with it potentially working on a eye so quickly.

I see Josh is going to make the intercept. Unfortunately it will be alone as Jorge (his Mexico chase partner) can not make it. Keep us informed Scott. Hopefully Josh (a member of the old board as Hurricane Josh) will sign up and drop us a line or two if he can.

[srainhoutx]

Karl continues to strengthen rapidly this morning. RECON is finding some impressive flight level winds. Satellite presentations suggest Rapid Intensification is occurring. RECON should verify this in the hours ahead. Nice hot tower in Western eyewall...

[srainhoutx]

Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC)
Transmitted: 16th day of the month at 14:30Z
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 308)
Storm Number & Year: 13L in 2010
Storm Name: Karl (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 3
Observation Number: 13
A. Time of Center Fix: 16th day of the month at 13:59:50Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 19°37'N 92°40'W (19.6167N 92.6667W) (View map)
B. Center Fix Location: 115 miles (185 km) to the N (9°) from Villahermosa, Tabasco, México.
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 1,290m (4,232ft) at 850mb
D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind: 60kts (~ 69.0mph)
E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind: 8 nautical miles (9 statute miles) to the SW (225°) of center fix
F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 313° at 75kts (From the NW at ~ 86.3mph)
G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 7 nautical miles (8 statute miles) to the SW (223°) of center fix
H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 983mb (29.03 inHg)
I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 15°C (59°F) at a pressure alt. of 1,533m (5,030ft)
J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 20°C (68°F) at a pressure alt. of 1,521m (4,990ft)
K. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 13°C (55°F)
K. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
L. Eye Character: Open in the southeast
M. Eye Shape & Diameter: Circular with a diameter of 15 nautical miles (17 statute miles)
N. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Radar, Wind, Pressure and Temperature
N. Fix Level: 850mb
O. Navigation Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles
O. Meteorological Accuracy: 4 nautical miles
Remarks Section:
Maximum Flight Level Wind: 75kts (~ 86.3mph) in the southwest quadrant at 13:57:40Z

[srainhoutx]

WTNT33 KNHC 161454
TCPAT3
BULLETIN
HURRICANE KARL ADVISORY NUMBER 9
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132010
1000 AM CDT THU SEP 16 2010

...KARL BECOMES A HURRICANE...HURRICANE WARNING FOR THE
MEXICAN GULF COAST...


SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.7N 92.8W
ABOUT 310 MI...500 KM ESE OF TUXPAN MEXICO
ABOUT 150 MI...240 KM W OF CAMPECHE MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...983 MB...29.03 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WARNING FOR THE GULF
COAST OF MEXICO FROM PALMA SOLA TO CABO ROJO.

THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE
GULF COAST OF MEXICO NORTH OF CABO ROJO TO LA CRUZ...AND FOR THE
GULF COAST OF MEXICO SOUTH OF PALMA SOLA TO VERACRUZ.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF MEXICO FROM PALMA SOLA TO CABO ROJO

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF MEXICO NORTH OF CABO ROJO TO LA CRUZ

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF MEXICO NORTH OF CABO ROJO TO LA CRUZ
* THE COAST OF MEXICO SOUTH OF PALMA SOLA TO VERACRUZ

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A WARNING IS TYPICALLY ISSUED
36 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF
TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE
PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE
AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS BEFORE
THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS
...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE KARL WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 19.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 92.8 WEST. KARL IS MOVING
TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 12 MPH...19 KM/HR...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ON THE FORECAST
TRACK...THE CENTER OF KARL WILL CROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF
MEXICO TODAY THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY...AND MOVE NEAR OR OVER THE
COAST OF MAINLAND MEXICO LATE THURSDAY OR THURSDAY NIGHT.

REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE
THAT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 75 MPH...120
KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. KARL IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE
SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS
LIKELY...AND KARL COULD APPROACH MAJOR HURRICANE STRENGTH BEFORE
THE CENTER REACHES THE MEXICAN COAST.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 10 MILES...20 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70
MILES...110 KM.

MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE JUST REPORTED BY THE HURRICANE HUNTER IS
983 MB...29.03 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
STORM SURGE...A DANGEROUS STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY
AS MUCH AS 6 TO 9 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE
COAST NEAR AND TO THE NORTH OF WHERE THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL.
NEAR THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND
DESTRUCTIVE WAVES.

WIND...WITHIN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED BY THURSDAY...WITH HURRICANE CONDITIONS EXPECTED BY
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY.

RAINFALL...KARL IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 5
TO 10 INCHES ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN MEXICAN GULF COAST
REGION...WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES POSSIBLE IN THE
INTERIOR MOUNTAINS. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH
FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...100 PM CDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...400 PM CDT.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

[srainhoutx]

Impressive Karl on the way to Major Hurricane status...

[srainhoutx]

Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC)
Transmitted: 16th day of the month at 15:41Z
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 308)
Storm Number & Year: 13L in 2010
Storm Name: Karl (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 3
Observation Number: 17
A. Time of Center Fix: 16th day of the month at 15:26:00Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 19°37'N 92°54'W (19.6167N 92.9W) (View map)
B. Center Fix Location: 113 miles (183 km) to the N (1°) from Villahermosa, Tabasco, México.
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 1,284m (4,213ft) at 850mb
D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind: 59kts (~ 67.9mph)
E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind: 12 nautical miles (14 statute miles) to the NW (318°) of center fix
F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 53° at 72kts (From the NE at ~ 82.9mph)
G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 10 nautical miles (12 statute miles) to the NW (319°) of center fix
H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 983mb (29.03 inHg)
I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 17°C (63°F) at a pressure alt. of 1,530m (5,020ft)
J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 21°C (70°F) at a pressure alt. of 1,519m (4,984ft)
K. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 14°C (57°F)
K. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
L. Eye Character: Closed
M. Eye Shape: Elliptical (oval shaped)
M. Orientation of Major Axis in Elliptical Eye: 270° to 90° (W to E)
M. Length of Major Axis in Elliptical Eye: 25 nautical miles (29 statute miles)
M. Length of Minor Axis in Elliptical Eye: 15 nautical miles (17 statute miles)
N. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Radar, Wind, Pressure and Temperature
N. Fix Level: 850mb
O. Navigation Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles
O. Meteorological Accuracy: 2 nautical miles
Remarks Section:
Maximum Flight Level Wind: 75kts (~ 86.3mph) in the northeast quadrant at 14:03:40Z

[srainhoutx]

Eyewall is almost closed now...

[srainhoutx]

Moving W...

Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC)
Transmitted: 16th day of the month at 17:29Z
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 308)
Storm Number & Year: 13L in 2010
Storm Name: Karl (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 3
Observation Number: 21
A. Time of Center Fix: 16th day of the month at 17:11:00Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 19°36'N 93°08'W (19.6N 93.1333W)
B. Center Fix Location: 113 miles (182 km) to the N (353°) from Villahermosa, Tabasco, México.
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 1,268m (4,160ft) at 850mb
D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind: 56kts (~ 64.4mph)
E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind: 9 nautical miles (10 statute miles) to the NE (42°) of center fix
F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 129° at 76kts (From the SE at ~ 87.5mph)
G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 11 nautical miles (13 statute miles) to the NE (43°) of center fix
H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 983mb (29.03 inHg)
I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 19°C (66°F) at a pressure alt. of 1,527m (5,010ft)
J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 22°C (72°F) at a pressure alt. of 1,528m (5,013ft)
K. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 15°C (59°F)
K. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
L. Eye Character: Open in the north-northeast
M. Eye Shape: Elliptical (oval shaped)
M. Orientation of Major Axis in Elliptical Eye: 330° to 150° (NNW to SSE)
M. Length of Major Axis in Elliptical Eye: 25 nautical miles (29 statute miles)
M. Length of Minor Axis in Elliptical Eye: 12 nautical miles (14 statute miles)
N. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Radar, Wind, Pressure and Temperature
N. Fix Level: 850mb
O. Navigation Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles
O. Meteorological Accuracy: 0 nautical miles
Remarks Section:
Maximum Wind Outbound: 78kts (~ 89.8mph) in the northwest quadrant at 17:16:30Z
Maximum Flight Level Wind: 78kts (~ 89.8mph) in the northwest quadrant at 17:16:30Z

[srainhoutx]

000
WTNT33 KNHC 161736
TCPAT3
BULLETIN
HURRICANE KARL INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 9A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132010
100 PM CDT THU SEP 16 2010

...KARL MOVING WESTWARD ACROSS THE BAY OF CAMPECHE...


SUMMARY OF 100 PM CDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.7N 93.3W
ABOUT 280 MI...450 KM ESE OF TUXPAN MEXICO
ABOUT 180 MI...290 KM W OF CAMPECHE MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...983 MB...29.03 INCHES

[biggerbyte]

Looks like he will move as suggested for a few days now, at least until he moves inland. The southern Gulf sure is a hot bed this year.

[srainhoutx]

Getting that coiled up look...

[srainhoutx]

000
WTNT43 KNHC 162045
TCDAT3
HURRICANE KARL DISCUSSION NUMBER 10
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132010
400 PM CDT THU SEP 16 2010

REPORTS FROM A NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT KARL IS
STRENGTHENING. A DROPSONDE IN THE EYE REPORTED A CENTRAL PRESSURE
OF 977 MB...AND THERE WERE TWO SURFACE WIND ESTIMATES OF 69 KT FROM
THE SFMR. IN ADDITION...A DROPSONDE IN THE NORTHWESTERN EYEWALL
SUPPORTS 70 KT SURFACE WINDS...AND THE PLANE REPORTED FLIGHT-LEVEL
WINDS OF 83 KT AT 12000 FT. THESE DATA SUPPORT RAISING THE INITIAL
INTENSITY TO 70 KT.

KARL HAS TURNED TO THE LEFT DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS AND THE
INITIAL MOTION IS NOW 270/10. A LOW/MID-LEVEL RIDGE NORTH OF KARL
SHOULD CONTINUE TO STEER THE HURRICANE ON A GENERALLY WESTWARD TRACK
FOR ABOUT THE NEXT 24 HR TO LANDFALL IN MEXICO...FOLLOWED BY A
WESTWARD TO WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD MOTION AS THE RIDGE STRENGTHENS.
OVERALL...THE ENVELOPE OF TRACK GUIDANCE HAS SHIFTED SOUTHWARD
SINCE THE LAST ADVISORY...WITH ONLY THE ECMWF...CANADIAN...AND UKMET
MODELS SHOWING ANY NORTHWARD COMPONENT TO THE MOTION BEFORE
LANDFALL. THE NEW FORECAST TRACK IS SHIFTED SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS
ONE...SHOWING AN ALMOST DUE WEST MOTION UNTIL LANDFALL AND A
SOUTH OF WEST MOTION THEREAFTER. THE NEW FORECAST TRACK IS TO
THE SOUTH OF THE ECMWF...CANADIAN...AND UKMET MODELS...BUT TO THE
NORTH OF THE OTHER DYNAMICAL MODELS AND THE CONSENSUS GUIDANCE.

ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS REMAIN VERY CONDUCIVE FOR STRENGTHENING
ALONG THE FORECAST TRACK WITH WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND
LIGHT VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. THUS...KARL IS EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN
STEADILY AND POSSIBLY RAPIDLY. THE LGEM...SHIPS...GFDL...AND
FLORIDA STATE SUPERENSEMBLE ALL FORECAST KARL TO BECOME A CATEGORY
TWO HURRICANE BEFORE LANDFALL...AND THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS FOR A
85 KT LANDFALL INTENSITY AS A BLEND OF THESE FORECASTS. IT IS NOT
OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT KARL COULD BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE BEFORE
LANDFALL. AFTER LANDFALL...KARL SHOULD WEAKEN QUICKLY AS IT MOVES
INTO THE MOUNTAINS OF MEXICO...AND IT IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE BY
96 HR IF NOT SOONER.

THE NEW FORECAST TRACK HAS REQUIRED WARNINGS TO BE EXTENDED FARTHER
SOUTH ALONG THE COAST OF MEXICO. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THE NEW
FORECAST TRACK CALLS FOR LANDFALL IN ABOUT 24 HOURS AS COMPARED TO
36 HOURS FOR THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...WHICH HAS REDUCED THE AMOUNT
OF TIME AVAILABLE TO MAKE PREPARATIONS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 16/2100Z 19.6N 93.7W 70 KT
12HR VT 17/0600Z 19.7N 94.9W 75 KT
24HR VT 17/1800Z 19.7N 96.2W 85 KT
36HR VT 18/0600Z 19.6N 97.6W 55 KT...INLAND
48HR VT 18/1800Z 19.5N 99.1W 30 KT...INLAND
72HR VT 19/1800Z 19.0N 102.0W 25 KT...INLAND
96HR VT 20/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

[srainhoutx]

000
WTNT33 KNHC 162354
TCPAT3
BULLETIN
HURRICANE KARL INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 10A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132010
700 PM CDT THU SEP 16 2010

...HURRICANE KARL AMING AT THE COAST OF MEXICO...

SUMMARY OF 700 PM CDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.7N 94.1W
ABOUT 140 MI...225 KM ENE OF VERACRUZ MEXICO
ABOUT 235 MI...375 KM ESE OF TUXPAN MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...971 MB...28.67 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF MEXICO FROM VERACRUZ TO CABO ROJO

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF MEXICO NORTH OF CABO ROJO TO LA CRUZ

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF MEXICO NORTH OF CABO ROJO TO LA CRUZ
* THE COAST OF MEXICO SOUTH OF VERACRUZ TO PUNTA EL LAGARTO


FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 700 PM CDT...0000 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE KARL WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 19.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 94.1 WEST. KARL IS MOVING
TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 12 MPH...19 KM/HR...AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE WITH SOME DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED DURING THE NEXT 36
TO 48 HOURS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF KARL WILL
CONTINUE CROSSING THE BAY OF CAMPECHE TONIGHT AND MAKE LANDFALL ON
THE COAST OF MEXICO WITHIN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA ON FRIDAY.

REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 80 MPH...130 KM/HR...WITH
HIGHER GUSTS. KARL IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE
SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS
LIKELY...AND KARL COULD APPROACH MAJOR HURRICANE STRENGTH BEFORE
THE CENTER REACHES THE MEXICAN COAST.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 10 MILES...20 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70
MILES...110 KM.

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE JUST ESTIMATED BY THE HURRICANE HUNTER
WAS 971 MB...28.67 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
STORM SURGE...A DANGEROUS STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY
AS MUCH AS 6 TO 9 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE
COAST NEAR AND TO THE NORTH OF WHERE THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL.
NEAR THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND
DESTRUCTIVE WAVES.

WIND...WITHIN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN EARLY FRIDAY MORNING...WITH HURRICANE
CONDITIONS EXPECTED DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY.

RAINFALL...KARL IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 5
TO 10 INCHES ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN MEXICAN GULF COAST
REGION...WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES POSSIBLE IN THE
INTERIOR MOUNTAINS. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH
FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1000 PM CDT.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

[Scott747]

Josh is at LAX and about to board his plane. ETA for Mexico City is around midnight.

Convinced him to look at getting a driver for the trek to Veracruz so we're frantically trying to obtain one. Needless to say the timing issue is a constraint but there was no way around it with how things have evolved.

[srainhoutx]

Josh is at LAX and about to board his plane. ETA for Mexico City is around midnight.

Convinced him to look at getting a driver for the trek to Veracruz so we're frantically trying to obtain one. Needless to say the timing issue is a constraint but there was no way around it with how things have evolved.

Thanks for the update Scott. This intercept is a dream storm for Josh I hear. He has been well advised by the team that supports his efforts, no doubt. We wish him a safe and successful intercept...

[srainhoutx]

Convection is wrapping around the center tonight. Look for some RI in the hours ahead. RECON is sampling at this time...

[srainhoutx]

Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC)
Transmitted: 17th day of the month at 00:48Z
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 302)
Storm Number & Year: 13L in 2010
Storm Name: Karl (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 4
Observation Number: 10
A. Time of Center Fix: 17th day of the month at 0:35:10Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 19°41'N 94°08'W (19.6833N 94.1333W)
B. Center Fix Location: 142 miles (228 km) between the NW and NNW (326°) from Villahermosa, Tabasco, México.
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 1,176m (3,858ft) at 850mb
D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind: 86kts (~ 99.0mph)
E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind: 6 nautical miles (7 statute miles) to the SSW (208°) of center fix
F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 292° at 85kts (From the WNW at ~ 97.8mph)
G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 8 nautical miles (9 statute miles) to the SSW (201°) of center fix
H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 971mb (28.67 inHg)
I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 15°C (59°F) at a pressure alt. of 1,521m (4,990ft)
J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 21°C (70°F) at a pressure alt. of 1,523m (4,997ft)
K. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 14°C (57°F)
K. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
L. Eye Character: Closed Wall
M. Eye Shape & Diameter: Circular with a diameter of 12 nautical miles (14 statute miles)
N. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Radar, Wind, Pressure and Temperature
N. Fix Level: 850mb
O. Navigation Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles
O. Meteorological Accuracy: 1 nautical mile
Remarks Section:
Maximum Wind Outbound: 90kts (~ 103.6mph) in the northwest quadrant at 0:40:30Z
Maximum Flight Level Wind: 90kts (~ 103.6mph) in the northwest quadrant at 0:40:30Z