January 2024

[don]

Big difference in qpf amounts between the Euro and GFS.

12Z EURO

qpf_acc-imp.us_sc (10).png

GFS

qpf_acc-imp.us_sc (8).png

[Stratton20]

Euro is a partykiller, but luckily it is the outlier

[Cpv17]

Big difference in qpf amounts between the Euro and GFS.

12Z EURO


qpf_acc-imp.us_sc (10).png

GFS

qpf_acc-imp.us_sc (8).png

Lol they’re even further apart from each other now than they were before. Gonna make for a difficult forecast. We need the mesos.

[Dls2010r]

I’ll take the party killer.

[Stratton20]

Goven the agreement between the CMC and GFS, the euro is about as reliable as a broken clock right now,

[Cpv17]

The GEFS favors the Golden Triangle and into Louisiana. It’s even more east than its op.

[don]

12Z GEFS

qpf_acc-mean-imp.us_sc.png

[don]

12Z EPS/12Z CMC ensemble

image_2024-01-18_145454855.png

qpf_acc-mean-imp.us_sc (3).png

[Cpv17]

Watch the 18z GFS shift east.

[DoctorMu]

Bottle up all that rain and save it for the upcoming miserable summer.

Don’t get the impression that we’ll be dealing with a miserable summer this year but I do think the 2025 summer could be miserable.
This summer we have to watch the tropics.

One major hurricane can make an otherwise moderate summer “miserable.”

If is heads into Louisiana and we're on the west side!

[DoctorMu]

A Baja/Big Bend kind of weather day. Low DP, SSW winds. The front is approaching and it will be chilly again.

I'm leaning to most of the rain heading east of us. We may receive 2-3 inches. Better than 7!!

[DoctorMu]

Don’t get the impression that we’ll be dealing with a miserable summer this year but I do think the 2025 summer could be miserable.
This summer we have to watch the tropics.

One major hurricane can make an otherwise moderate summer “miserable.”

Indeed but I was just trying to say I don’t think it’ll be a brutally hot and dry summer but I’m very concerned about the tropics.

No mas on the days/weeks/months of 110°F-113°F weather!

[Stratton20]

Yeah im not getting my hopes up still, the set up always “ looks good for us” and then it ends up blowing up east of us lol, ill believe the heavy rain when i see it falling from the sky

[don]

qpf_acc-imp.us_sc (11).png

[Cpv17]

qpf_acc-imp.us_sc (11).png

That looks a lot better than I thought it would lol

[srainhoutx]

So you folks have a meandering low caught up in a Sub tropical Jetstream pumping in deep tropical moisture from Hawaii in winter. That typically means the possibility of very heavy rain and storms. Don't sleep on this event.

[DoctorMu]

Temps plunged from 70°F to 48°F in just two hours. I'm enjoying the dry air while it lasts in the winter.

[Ptarmigan]

qpf_acc-imp.us_sc (11).png

I rarely see forecast total this high in January. That looks like more like spring, summer, or fall.

[DoctorMu]

3-6 inches of rain. Maybe more as the Pineapple Express aka atmospheric river dumps. I expect a steep SE gradient on rainfall. CLL may escape.

One thing to keep in mind with desiccated vegetation cover following our deep freezes (another one Friday night). There is greater possibility for run-off when heavy rains manifest themselves. Be wary and mindful.


Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
537 PM CST Thu Jan 18 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Friday Night)
Issued at 326 PM CST Thu Jan 18 2024

A dry cold front is expected to push across SE Texas tonight through
early Friday morning. Ahead of this front, winds are expected to
become light and variable with clear/mostly clear skies overhead.
Forecast soundings show a strong nocturnal inversion forming early
this evening, with ample moisture trapped beneath it. This will lead
to patchy/areas of fog developing tonight, mainly in areas along and
south of the I-10 corridor. These locations will be most at risk for
getting dense fog. Recent HRRR runs have trended slower with the
FROPA, increasing the fog potential and expanding it further north.
Thankfully, this fog should clear out during the early morning hours
of Friday as cooler/drier air filters in and breezier conditions
develop in the wake of the FROPA. Based on current guidance, the
fog should be over prior to sunrise (inland), so it should
(hopefully) not impact the Friday morning commute.

Friday will feature typical post-frontal conditions during the
daytime hours: Cool, dry, with clear skies and slightly breezy
conditions. Highs will top out in the 40s/50s during the day. Friday
night/Saturday morning will see sub-freezing temperatures return to
SE Texas with lows progged for the 20s/30s. Therefore, a Hard Freeze
watch will be in effect from 9 PM Friday Through 9 AM Saturday.
Depending on how conditions trend, Hard Freeze Warnings/Wind Chill
Advisories could be warranted during this period. Make sure to take
precautions to protect pets, plants and pipes from these frigid
conditions.

03

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through next Wednesday)
Issued at 326 PM CST Thu Jan 18 2024

The weekend will start out chilly and dry as we attempt to warm-up
after a very cold Friday night with surface high pressure overhead.
High temperatures on Saturday will get into the mid to upper 40s for
most of the area with overnight lows Saturday night in the mid to
upper 30s along and south of I-10, and then upper 20s to low 30s
northwards. Temperatures will only continue to rise through the rest
of the long term, and our next sub-freezing night won`t be for
awhile.

The surface high pressure slides to the east on Sunday inducing a
southeasterly flow at the surface ushering in moist, warmer
conditions into SE Texas. Meanwhile, a large upper level trough will
begin to set up across the Desert Southwest. Numerous shortwaves
will traverse the outside edge of this trough passing through SE
Texas. This parade of disturbance will each bring chances of
rainfall. The first of these disturbances is looking to be a rather
potent one and begins is pass through late Sunday into Monday.
Showers will begin to move into SE Texas from the southwest as early
as sunset Sunday, and then only increase in coverage and intensity
through Monday. Thanks to that SE flow, PWATs surge to near 1.5" on
Monday providing ample fuel to support showers and isolated
thunderstorms on Monday. Rainfall potential Sunday into Monday will
be generally up to 1-2", but locally higher amounts are likely. WPC
has placed the region in a Slight Risk of Excessive Rainfall (level
2 of 4) on Monday due to this rainfall. At this point, minor urban
or small stream flooding looks to be the main concern, but will
continue to monitor.

The train of disturbances continue through midweek bringing periods
of increased coverage and intensity of rainfall. An additional 1 to
2 inches or more of rain will be possible Tuesday and again on
Wednesday. Additional rainfall is possible after Wednesday, but
forecast confidence decreases.

Temperatures through the long term will see gradual warming. High
temperatures on Sunday will be in the 40s to 50s, then 60s on
Monday, and near 70 Tuesday and Wednesday. Overnight lows will see a
similar trend with lows in the 50s to low 60s by Monday night (quite
the difference a week makes).

Fowler

[DoctorMu]

Could easily be wrong, but I'm on board the Euro, which assumes the main firehose will be SE.