January 2024

[don]

0Z GFS

qpf_acc-imp.us_sc (7).png

[Stratton20]

Now thats a gullywasher!

[Stormlover2020]

It’s a flood

[DoctorMu]

NOAA nailed my low of 12°F. NAM was solid in predicting mixed precip. Our local mets had the best record.

57 must live right on the Gulf. He must be addicted to dripping sweat.

We'll rise into the 60s tomorrow briefly with the dry air and SW winds from Mexico (lows are near freezing both nights), then back into the 40s for highs on Friday. Thursday is a Big Bend kinda day weatherwise.

Next week is the big change to an unsettled pattern and rain.

He lives in Westbury.

This weekend’s cold snap is much more ‘normal’ and manageable for SE Texas. I’m looking forward to next week. Keeping one eye open on February.

There was definitely a gradient. This was near 90th percentile cold in CLL.

[DoctorMu]

It’s a flood

Totally wasted. Give me this on July 17.

Of course, it would probably be a hurricane!

[MontgomeryCoWx]

It’s a flood

Totally wasted. Give me this on July 17.

Of course, it would probably be a hurricane!

Yep, screw Summer Heat with rain. Worthless in winter. Give me a foot of snow with that.

[djmike]

Wow! Thats a lot of rain. Thats crazy!

[walsean1]

0Z GFS

qpf_acc-imp.us_sc (7).png

If that verifies, we could have major problems by Wednesday of next week. We had a mini ice issue Monday and now flooding issues and we are not done with possible cold weather/P type precipitation that could come in February

[redneckweather]

Yes, the globals can do a good job with arctic air. I don't think any of us ever disagreed with that. We were just stating that usually the mesoscale models will do a better job with temps and precip in the short term specifically with shallow air. I was never debating about the overall lows( I could care less to be honest LOL).

My focus was if we would drop below freezing faster than what the global we're showing on Sunday as that would have big implications on whether we would have icing issues or just a cold rain. If meteorologists went with the global models last Friday/Saturday the general public would have been just expecting a cold rainy day on Monday. And would have been surprised with icy overpasses and flyovers. There would have been FAR more accidents than there were. The mesoscale models nailed the temps dropping faster allowing precip to become frozen.

And yes in general the mesoscale models did a better job than the global with temps with this event.I'm not sure what the debate is...

There was never any "debate" in the formal sense of the term — my posts were actually just more of commentaries/inquiries based on sentiments that I've seen in the past from boards like this, storm2k, etc.

I pretty much agree with all of your post here. I just not a fan of dogmatic statements on these wx boards like "globals are always too warm" with arctic blasts — yes they whiff on events like this one, or the I-35 arborgeddon in late Jan/early Feb 2023, but they nail others like Feb 2021 and Dec 2022. I guess I'd prefer more discussion on why such discrepancies exist, instead of dogmatic statements against globals versus mesocales (or vice-versa).

And, again, even within mesoscales, the NAM, supposedly a great model at handling shallow airmasses, now apparently "ran too warm." Huh?

was never debating about the overall lows I could care less to be honest LOL).

*couldn't.

Narcissist.

[Cromagnum]

0Z GFS

qpf_acc-imp.us_sc (7).png

I hope that's just the GFS being awful again.

[mcheer23]

Update from Cosgrove about the system next week and potential cold into February:

There is indeed a second intrusion of bitter cold shaping up now over the Upper Midwest, which should have impacts through Texas, Dixie, the Corn Belt and the Northeast. Snow will impact the Great Lakes, St. Lawrence Valley and New England this weekend, with wind chills numbing faces along the way.

However, moderation will arrive next week in most of the lower 48 states, and you might be tempted to think that the “worst is over” for winter. If so, you will likely be wrong. One because the cold will be recharging over Canada and forming a Hudson Bay vortex. Secondly, the subtropical jet stream will be sending something very bad from Mexico into Texas. This system could prove to be very interesting.

When I use the word “interesting”, most of you know that is not necessarily a good thing. The storm riding the southern branch will be a slow mover into the Rio Grande Valley, and also have a Tehuantepec moisture fetch. The last time we saw that feature? Hurricane Harvey on August 25, 2017. While winds will not be a problem next week in TX and LA, it is likely that torrential rainfall will be to the right of Interstate 35, below Interstate 30 and eastward to the middle and lower Mississippi River watershed. Intense thunderstorms may be involved. My real concern here is that the numerical model guidance shows a very slow moving system that does not start to accelerate until January 28 or so.


Afterward, I think that this disturbance will phase with polar and Arctic elements coming out of Canada. Perhaps leading toward more cold intrusions in the first week of February.

This feature is something worth watching. Stay tuned.

[Cromagnum]

Bottle up all that rain and save it for the upcoming miserable summer.

[don]

We're already at a slight risk for day 5.

d5wbg (1).gif

Increasing moisture ahead of the western U.S. troughing will start
to spread rain into the southern Plains on Sunday. The trend has
been for heavy rain to start over south Texas late Sunday night,
so a Marginal Risk area remains in place there on the Day 4
Excessive Rainfall Outlook. Rain totals are forecast to quickly
ramp up on Monday and last through Tuesday-Wednesday for parts of
the southern Plains into the Lower Mississippi Valley, and these
heavy totals could produce flash flooding concerns. As a starting
point, a Slight Risk is delineated for Day 5/Monday in the
southeastern quadrant of Texas into far southwestern Louisiana
where the best potential for instability to produce high rain
rates is, with a Marginal Risk extending farther north in Oklahoma
and the Lower Mississippi Valley.

[Cpv17]

Bottle up all that rain and save it for the upcoming miserable summer.

Don’t get the impression that we’ll be dealing with a miserable summer this year but I do think the 2025 summer could be miserable.
This summer we have to watch the tropics.

[don]

12Z GFS and CMC

qpf_acc-imp.us_sc (8).png

qpf_acc-imp.us_sc (9).png

[Cpv17]

So far I like what the WPC is showing for this event by hanging the higher totals slightly more west than what the GFS/GEFS is showing.

[Cpv17]

I wonder if the Euro will cave towards the GFS with these higher totals or will it be the other way around? Pretty big difference between the Euro and GFS so far.

[don]

WPC QPF forecast

wpc_qpf_168h_p.us_sc (1).png

[Pas_Bon]

Bottle up all that rain and save it for the upcoming miserable summer.

Don’t get the impression that we’ll be dealing with a miserable summer this year but I do think the 2025 summer could be miserable.
This summer we have to watch the tropics.

One major hurricane can make an otherwise moderate summer “miserable.”

[Cpv17]

Bottle up all that rain and save it for the upcoming miserable summer.

Don’t get the impression that we’ll be dealing with a miserable summer this year but I do think the 2025 summer could be miserable.
This summer we have to watch the tropics.

One major hurricane can make an otherwise moderate summer “miserable.”

Indeed but I was just trying to say I don’t think it’ll be a brutally hot and dry summer but I’m very concerned about the tropics.