Yes we do!
000
WTNT33 KNHC 142051
TCPAT3
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM KARL ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132010
500 PM EDT TUE SEP 14 2010
...TROPICAL STORM KARL FORMS OVER THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...
SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.3N 84.2W
ABOUT 270 MI...435 KM E OF CHETUMAL MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...
THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE
EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM CHETUMAL AT THE MEXICO/
BELIZE BORDER NORTHWARD TO CABO CATOCHE.
THE GOVERNMENT OF BELIZE HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE
COAST OF NORTHERN BELIZE FROM BELIZE CITY TO THE MEXICO/BELIZE
BORDER.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM CHETUMAL AT THE
MEXICO/BELIZE BORDER NORTHWARD TO CABO CATOCHE
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IN IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF NORTHERN BELIZE FROM BELIZE CITY TO THE MEXICO/BELIZE
BORDER
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 24
HOURS.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 24 HOURS.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE
THAT THE LOW PRESSURE AREA OVER THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN HAS
DEVELOPED INTO TROPICAL STORM KARL. AT 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...
THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KARL WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.3
NORTH...LONGITUDE 84.2 WEST. KARL IS MOVING TOWARD THE
WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 15 MPH...24 KM/HR...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH SOME DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED DURING THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF KARL
WILL MOVE OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA ON WEDNESDAY...AND MOVE INTO
THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO WEDNESDAY NIGHT OR THURSDAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED BEFORE THE CENTER OF KARL REACHES
THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...WITH WEAKENING FORECAST AFTER LANDFALL.
AT THIS TIME...KARL IS A SMALL TROPICAL STORM. TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE
WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 10 MILES...20 KM FROM THE CENTER.
THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE ESTIMATED FROM THE HURRICANE HUNTER
DATA IS 1001 MB...29.56 INCHES.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
STORM SURGE... A STORM SURGE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE SOME COASTAL
FLOODING NEAR AND TO THE NORTH OF WHERE THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL.
NEAR THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND
DAMAGING WAVES.
RAINFALL...KARL IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 3
TO 5 INCHES OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...BELIZE...AND NORTHERN
GUATEMALA...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 8 INCHES.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...800 PM EDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 PM EDT.
$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
TD Karl Inland West of Veracruz, MX
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000
WTNT43 KNHC 142052
TCDAT3
TROPICAL STORM KARL DISCUSSION NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132010
500 PM EDT TUE SEP 14 2010
AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INVESTIGATING THE LOW
PRESSURE AREA IN THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA FOUND A SMALL AND
VIGOROUS WIND/PRESSURE CENTER INSIDE THE LARGER CYCLONIC ENVELOPE.
THE MAXIMUM FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS WERE 41 KT AT LESS THAN 1500 FT JUST
EAST OF THE CENTER...AND THE SFMR ESTIMATED RELIABLE-LOOKING WINDS
OF 35 KT OUTSIDE OF THE HEAVY RAIN AREAS. THE MINIMUM CENTRAL
PRESSURE WAS 1001 MB. BASED ON THESE DATA...THE SYSTEM IS UPGRADED
STRAIGHT TO TROPICAL STORM KARL WITH AN INITIAL INTENSITY OF 35 KT.
THE INITIAL MOTION IS 295/13. KARL IS LOCATED ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF
A DEEP-LAYER RIDGE CENTERED ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST. THE
TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE RIDGE SHOULD STEER
KARL GENERALLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA INTO
THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO...FOLLOWED BY A GENERAL WESTWARD
MOTION TOWARD MAINLAND MEXICO. THERE IS SOME SPREAD IN THE TRACK
GUIDANCE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO...WITH SOME OF THE DYNAMICAL
MODELS FORECASTING A SOUTH-OF-WEST MOTION BEFORE KARL REACHES THE
COAST OF MAINLAND MEXICO. THE FORECAST TRACK WILL SHOW A WESTWARD
MOTION AFTER 72 HR...AND OVERALL IT LIES DOWN THE CENTER OF THE
GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.
KARL IS IN AN ENVIRONMENT OF LIGHT EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR...
AND THIS IS FORECAST TO PERSIST FOR THE NEXT 4-5 DAYS. THE MAJOR
INFLUENCE ON THE INTENSITY WILL BE LAND INTERACTION. WHILE THE
INTENSITY FORECAST SHOWS KARL WITH 45-KT WINDS OVER EASTERN
YUCATAN...THE STORM COULD REACH A HIGHER INTENSITY BETWEEN THE 12
AND 24 HR FORECAST POINTS. OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO...KARL SHOULD
RE-INTENSIFY...WITH THE SHIPS AND GFDL MODELS CALLING FOR IT TO
BECOME A HURRICANE. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS A BIT MORE
CONSERVATIVE DUE TO UNCERTAINTY ABOUT WHAT KIND OF STRUCTURE KARL
WILL HAVE AFTER CROSSING THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. AFTER FINAL
LANDFALL IN MEXICO...KARL SHOULD EVENTUALLY DISSIPATE OVER THE
MOUNTAINS OF CENTRAL MEXICO.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 14/2100Z 18.3N 84.2W 35 KT
12HR VT 15/0600Z 18.9N 86.0W 40 KT
24HR VT 15/1800Z 19.6N 88.1W 45 KT...INLAND
36HR VT 16/0600Z 20.4N 90.3W 30 KT...INLAND
48HR VT 16/1800Z 21.0N 92.6W 35 KT...OVER WATER
72HR VT 17/1800Z 21.5N 96.0W 55 KT
96HR VT 18/1800Z 21.5N 99.5W 30 KT...INLAND
120HR VT 19/1800Z...DISSIPATED
$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
WTNT43 KNHC 142052
TCDAT3
TROPICAL STORM KARL DISCUSSION NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132010
500 PM EDT TUE SEP 14 2010
AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INVESTIGATING THE LOW
PRESSURE AREA IN THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA FOUND A SMALL AND
VIGOROUS WIND/PRESSURE CENTER INSIDE THE LARGER CYCLONIC ENVELOPE.
THE MAXIMUM FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS WERE 41 KT AT LESS THAN 1500 FT JUST
EAST OF THE CENTER...AND THE SFMR ESTIMATED RELIABLE-LOOKING WINDS
OF 35 KT OUTSIDE OF THE HEAVY RAIN AREAS. THE MINIMUM CENTRAL
PRESSURE WAS 1001 MB. BASED ON THESE DATA...THE SYSTEM IS UPGRADED
STRAIGHT TO TROPICAL STORM KARL WITH AN INITIAL INTENSITY OF 35 KT.
THE INITIAL MOTION IS 295/13. KARL IS LOCATED ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF
A DEEP-LAYER RIDGE CENTERED ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST. THE
TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE RIDGE SHOULD STEER
KARL GENERALLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA INTO
THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO...FOLLOWED BY A GENERAL WESTWARD
MOTION TOWARD MAINLAND MEXICO. THERE IS SOME SPREAD IN THE TRACK
GUIDANCE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO...WITH SOME OF THE DYNAMICAL
MODELS FORECASTING A SOUTH-OF-WEST MOTION BEFORE KARL REACHES THE
COAST OF MAINLAND MEXICO. THE FORECAST TRACK WILL SHOW A WESTWARD
MOTION AFTER 72 HR...AND OVERALL IT LIES DOWN THE CENTER OF THE
GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.
KARL IS IN AN ENVIRONMENT OF LIGHT EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR...
AND THIS IS FORECAST TO PERSIST FOR THE NEXT 4-5 DAYS. THE MAJOR
INFLUENCE ON THE INTENSITY WILL BE LAND INTERACTION. WHILE THE
INTENSITY FORECAST SHOWS KARL WITH 45-KT WINDS OVER EASTERN
YUCATAN...THE STORM COULD REACH A HIGHER INTENSITY BETWEEN THE 12
AND 24 HR FORECAST POINTS. OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO...KARL SHOULD
RE-INTENSIFY...WITH THE SHIPS AND GFDL MODELS CALLING FOR IT TO
BECOME A HURRICANE. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS A BIT MORE
CONSERVATIVE DUE TO UNCERTAINTY ABOUT WHAT KIND OF STRUCTURE KARL
WILL HAVE AFTER CROSSING THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. AFTER FINAL
LANDFALL IN MEXICO...KARL SHOULD EVENTUALLY DISSIPATE OVER THE
MOUNTAINS OF CENTRAL MEXICO.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 14/2100Z 18.3N 84.2W 35 KT
12HR VT 15/0600Z 18.9N 86.0W 40 KT
24HR VT 15/1800Z 19.6N 88.1W 45 KT...INLAND
36HR VT 16/0600Z 20.4N 90.3W 30 KT...INLAND
48HR VT 16/1800Z 21.0N 92.6W 35 KT...OVER WATER
72HR VT 17/1800Z 21.5N 96.0W 55 KT
96HR VT 18/1800Z 21.5N 99.5W 30 KT...INLAND
120HR VT 19/1800Z...DISSIPATED
$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Humberto/Ike/Harvey
Member: National Weather Association
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srainhoutx
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srainhoutx
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Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC)
Transmitted: 14th day of the month at 21:32Z
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 305)
Mission Purpose: Investigate fourth suspect area (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 1
Observation Number: 13
A. Time of Center Fix: 14th day of the month at 21:01:50Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 18°16'N 84°08'W (18.2667N 84.1333W) (View map)
B. Center Fix Location: 266 miles (428 km) to the SE (139°) from Cancún, Quintana Roo, México.
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 702m (2,303ft) at 925mb
D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind: 47kts (~ 54.1mph)
E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind: 4 nautical miles (5 statute miles) to the WSW (248°) of center fix
F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 44° at 28kts (From the NE at ~ 32.2mph)
G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 19 nautical miles (22 statute miles) to the WNW (284°) of center fix
H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 1001mb (29.56 inHg) - Extrapolated
I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 21°C (70°F) at a pressure alt. of 777m (2,549ft)
J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 22°C (72°F) at a pressure alt. of 759m (2,490ft)
K. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 21°C (70°F)
K. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
L. Eye Character: Not Available
M. Eye Shape: Not Available
N. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Radar, Wind, Pressure and Temperature
N. Fix Level: 925mb
O. Navigation Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles
O. Meteorological Accuracy: 1 nautical mile
Remarks Section:
Maximum Flight Level Wind Outbound: 38kts (~ 43.7mph) in the east quadrant at 21:04:30Z
Sea Level Pressure Extrapolation From: 925mb
Transmitted: 14th day of the month at 21:32Z
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 305)
Mission Purpose: Investigate fourth suspect area (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 1
Observation Number: 13
A. Time of Center Fix: 14th day of the month at 21:01:50Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 18°16'N 84°08'W (18.2667N 84.1333W) (View map)
B. Center Fix Location: 266 miles (428 km) to the SE (139°) from Cancún, Quintana Roo, México.
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 702m (2,303ft) at 925mb
D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind: 47kts (~ 54.1mph)
E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind: 4 nautical miles (5 statute miles) to the WSW (248°) of center fix
F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 44° at 28kts (From the NE at ~ 32.2mph)
G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 19 nautical miles (22 statute miles) to the WNW (284°) of center fix
H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 1001mb (29.56 inHg) - Extrapolated
I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 21°C (70°F) at a pressure alt. of 777m (2,549ft)
J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 22°C (72°F) at a pressure alt. of 759m (2,490ft)
K. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 21°C (70°F)
K. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
L. Eye Character: Not Available
M. Eye Shape: Not Available
N. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Radar, Wind, Pressure and Temperature
N. Fix Level: 925mb
O. Navigation Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles
O. Meteorological Accuracy: 1 nautical mile
Remarks Section:
Maximum Flight Level Wind Outbound: 38kts (~ 43.7mph) in the east quadrant at 21:04:30Z
Sea Level Pressure Extrapolation From: 925mb
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srainhoutx
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Appears we have a strengthening Karl moving WNW...
Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC)
Transmitted: 14th day of the month at 22:15Z
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 305)
Mission Purpose: Investigate fourth suspect area (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 1
Observation Number: 16
A. Time of Center Fix: 14th day of the month at 21:53:10Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 18°19'N 84°18'W (18.3167N 84.3W) (View map)
B. Center Fix Location: 256 miles (412 km) to the SE (140°) from Cancún, Quintana Roo, México.
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 695m (2,280ft) at 925mb
D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind: 37kts (~ 42.6mph)
E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind: 4 nautical miles (5 statute miles) to the NNE (19°) of center fix
F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 98° at 41kts (From the E at ~ 47.2mph)
G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 5 nautical miles (6 statute miles) to the NNE (22°) of center fix
H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 1000mb (29.53 inHg) - Extrapolated
I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 22°C (72°F) at a pressure alt. of 764m (2,507ft)
J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 24°C (75°F) at a pressure alt. of 762m (2,500ft)
K. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 22°C (72°F)
K. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
L. Eye Character: Not Available
M. Eye Shape: Not Available
N. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Radar, Wind, Pressure and Temperature
N. Fix Level: 925mb
O. Navigation Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles
O. Meteorological Accuracy: 1 nautical mile
Remarks Section - Remarks That Were Decoded...
Maximum Flight Level Wind: 41kts (~ 47.2mph) in the north quadrant at 21:51:30Z
Sea Level Pressure Extrapolation From: 925mb
Remarks Section - Additional Remarks...
Convection and banding SW of center.
Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC)
Transmitted: 14th day of the month at 22:15Z
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 305)
Mission Purpose: Investigate fourth suspect area (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 1
Observation Number: 16
A. Time of Center Fix: 14th day of the month at 21:53:10Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 18°19'N 84°18'W (18.3167N 84.3W) (View map)
B. Center Fix Location: 256 miles (412 km) to the SE (140°) from Cancún, Quintana Roo, México.
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 695m (2,280ft) at 925mb
D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind: 37kts (~ 42.6mph)
E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind: 4 nautical miles (5 statute miles) to the NNE (19°) of center fix
F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 98° at 41kts (From the E at ~ 47.2mph)
G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 5 nautical miles (6 statute miles) to the NNE (22°) of center fix
H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 1000mb (29.53 inHg) - Extrapolated
I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 22°C (72°F) at a pressure alt. of 764m (2,507ft)
J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 24°C (75°F) at a pressure alt. of 762m (2,500ft)
K. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 22°C (72°F)
K. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
L. Eye Character: Not Available
M. Eye Shape: Not Available
N. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Radar, Wind, Pressure and Temperature
N. Fix Level: 925mb
O. Navigation Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles
O. Meteorological Accuracy: 1 nautical mile
Remarks Section - Remarks That Were Decoded...
Maximum Flight Level Wind: 41kts (~ 47.2mph) in the north quadrant at 21:51:30Z
Sea Level Pressure Extrapolation From: 925mb
Remarks Section - Additional Remarks...
Convection and banding SW of center.
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srainhoutx
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Microwave pass suggests convection wrapping around the center. Karl should continue to strengthen until landfall on the Yucatan just S of Cancun IMO.
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srainhoutx
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000
WTNT33 KNHC 142344
TCPAT3
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM KARL INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 1A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132010
800 PM EDT TUE SEP 14 2010
...KARL A LITTLE STRONGER...HEADING TOWARD THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...
SUMMARY OF 800 PM EDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.4N 84.8W
ABOUT 230 MI...370 KM E OF CHETUMAL MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...
NONE.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM CHETUMAL AT THE
MEXICO/BELIZE BORDER NORTHWARD TO CABO CATOCHE
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IN IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF NORTHERN BELIZE FROM BELIZE CITY TO THE MEXICO/BELIZE
BORDER
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 24
HOURS.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 24 HOURS.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 800 PM EDT...0000 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KARL WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 84.8 WEST. KARL IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 15 MPH...24 KM/HR...AND THIS
GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH SOME DECREASE IN
FORWARD SPEED DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ON THE FORECAST
TRACK...THE CENTER OF KARL WILL MOVE OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA ON
WEDNESDAY...AND MOVE INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO WEDNESDAY
NIGHT OR THURSDAY.
REPORTS FROM A HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT THE MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 45 MPH...75 KM/HR...WITH
HIGHER GUSTS. SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE BEFORE
THE CENTER OF KARL REACHES THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...WITH WEAKENING
FORECAST AFTER LANDFALL.
TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES...40 KM
FROM THE CENTER.
THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE ESTIMATED FROM AIR FORCE AND NASA
AIRCRAFT DATA IS 999 MB...29.50 INCHES.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
STORM SURGE...A STORM SURGE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE SOME COASTAL
FLOODING NEAR AND TO THE NORTH OF WHERE THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL.
NEAR THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND
DAMAGING WAVES.
RAINFALL...KARL IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 3
TO 5 INCHES OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...BELIZE...AND NORTHERN
GUATEMALA...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 8 INCHES.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 PM EDT.
$$
FORECASTER BROWN
WTNT33 KNHC 142344
TCPAT3
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM KARL INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 1A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132010
800 PM EDT TUE SEP 14 2010
...KARL A LITTLE STRONGER...HEADING TOWARD THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...
SUMMARY OF 800 PM EDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.4N 84.8W
ABOUT 230 MI...370 KM E OF CHETUMAL MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...
NONE.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM CHETUMAL AT THE
MEXICO/BELIZE BORDER NORTHWARD TO CABO CATOCHE
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IN IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF NORTHERN BELIZE FROM BELIZE CITY TO THE MEXICO/BELIZE
BORDER
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 24
HOURS.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 24 HOURS.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 800 PM EDT...0000 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KARL WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 84.8 WEST. KARL IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 15 MPH...24 KM/HR...AND THIS
GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH SOME DECREASE IN
FORWARD SPEED DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ON THE FORECAST
TRACK...THE CENTER OF KARL WILL MOVE OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA ON
WEDNESDAY...AND MOVE INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO WEDNESDAY
NIGHT OR THURSDAY.
REPORTS FROM A HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT THE MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 45 MPH...75 KM/HR...WITH
HIGHER GUSTS. SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE BEFORE
THE CENTER OF KARL REACHES THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...WITH WEAKENING
FORECAST AFTER LANDFALL.
TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES...40 KM
FROM THE CENTER.
THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE ESTIMATED FROM AIR FORCE AND NASA
AIRCRAFT DATA IS 999 MB...29.50 INCHES.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
STORM SURGE...A STORM SURGE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE SOME COASTAL
FLOODING NEAR AND TO THE NORTH OF WHERE THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL.
NEAR THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND
DAMAGING WAVES.
RAINFALL...KARL IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 3
TO 5 INCHES OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...BELIZE...AND NORTHERN
GUATEMALA...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 8 INCHES.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 PM EDT.
$$
FORECASTER BROWN
Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Humberto/Ike/Harvey
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desiredwxgd
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desiredwxgd
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Looking good tonight. You can see convection starting too wrap around. Not too shabby.
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desiredwxgd
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srainhoutx
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Let's see what DMax brings. Have fun night crew... 
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Karl is a small storm. Probably one of the smallest tropical cyclones on record besides Marco (2008) and Tracy (1974). Karl is so small that it could easily fit inside of Ike or Katrina's eye. 
It is over some of the warmest waters in the Atlantic Basin. That is fuel for hurricanes.
Its small size and warm water would allow it to rapidly intensify into a hurricane, probably into a major hurricane. I would not be surprised if Karl goes under explosive development like Humberto did in 2007.
Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or KHOU Weather Forum. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
It is over some of the warmest waters in the Atlantic Basin. That is fuel for hurricanes.Its small size and warm water would allow it to rapidly intensify into a hurricane, probably into a major hurricane. I would not be surprised if Karl goes under explosive development like Humberto did in 2007.
Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or KHOU Weather Forum. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
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srainhoutx
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000
WTNT43 KNHC 150243
TCDAT3
TROPICAL STORM KARL DISCUSSION NUMBER 2
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132010
1000 PM CDT TUE SEP 14 2010
THE AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INVESTIGATING KARL
EARLIER THIS EVENING FOUND PEAK 925 MB FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OF 49 KT
AND SEVERAL BELIEVABLE 34-39 KT SFMR SURFACE WINDS JUST NORTH OF
THE CENTER AS IT EXITED THE STORM. THESE DATA WERE THE BASIS FOR
THE INCREASE IN INTENSITY IN THE 0000 UTC INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY.
THE ORGANIZATION OF THE CYCLONE HAS CHANGED LITTLE SINCE THAT
TIME...THEREFORE THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS 40 KT. THE NEXT AIR
FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE MISSION IS SCHEDULED TO REACH KARL
AROUND 0600 UTC.
THE AIRCRAFT FIXES AND A COUPLE OF RECENT SSMIS MICROWAVE IMAGES
SHOW THAT THE CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE SMALL
MASS OF DEEP CONVECTION...WHICH SUGGESTS THAT THERE IS SOME LIGHT
EASTERLY SHEAR. THE SHEAR...HOWEVER...IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE
INHIBITIVE FOR STRENGTHENING...AND SOME INTENSIFICATION IS POSSIBLE
BEFORE KARL REACHES THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. OVER
THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO...WATERS ARE WARM AND THE SHEAR IS
EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT...THEREFORE STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED. THE
GFDL...LGEM...SHIPS...AND FLORIDA STATE SUPERENSEMBLE ALL SHOW KARL
AT HURRICANE STRENGTH BEFORE IT REACHES THE COAST OF MAINLAND
MEXICO IN ABOUT 72 HOURS. THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY ABOUT
WHAT KIND OF STRUCTURE KARL WILL HAVE AFTER CROSSING THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA...HOWEVER GIVEN THE FAVORABLE CONDITIONS AND MODEL
AGREEMENT...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST BRINGS KARL TO HURRICANE STATUS
AT THAT TIME.
THE INITIAL MOTION IS 290/13. THE TRACK FORECAST PHILOSOPHY REMAINS
UNCHANGED. KARL IS EXPECTED TO MOVE GENERALLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
AROUND THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF A DEEP-LAYER RIDGE ALONG THE
NORTHERN GULF COAST. THE TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT
THROUGH 48 HOURS...WITH INCREASED SPREAD THEREAFTER...AS SOME OF THE
MODELS TURN KARL WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD NEAR THE COAST OF MAINLAND
MEXICO. THE NEW NHC TRACK IS ESSENTIALLY AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS
ADVISORY AND IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE GFS AND ECMWF MODELS.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 15/0300Z 18.6N 85.5W 40 KT
12HR VT 15/1200Z 19.2N 87.3W 50 KT
24HR VT 16/0000Z 20.0N 89.5W 30 KT...INLAND
36HR VT 16/1200Z 20.7N 91.6W 35 KT
48HR VT 17/0000Z 21.1N 93.4W 50 KT
72HR VT 18/0000Z 21.5N 96.7W 65 KT
96HR VT 19/0000Z 21.5N 100.5W 25 KT...INLAND
120HR VT 20/0000Z...DISSIPATED
$$
FORECASTER BROWN
WTNT43 KNHC 150243
TCDAT3
TROPICAL STORM KARL DISCUSSION NUMBER 2
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132010
1000 PM CDT TUE SEP 14 2010
THE AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INVESTIGATING KARL
EARLIER THIS EVENING FOUND PEAK 925 MB FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OF 49 KT
AND SEVERAL BELIEVABLE 34-39 KT SFMR SURFACE WINDS JUST NORTH OF
THE CENTER AS IT EXITED THE STORM. THESE DATA WERE THE BASIS FOR
THE INCREASE IN INTENSITY IN THE 0000 UTC INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY.
THE ORGANIZATION OF THE CYCLONE HAS CHANGED LITTLE SINCE THAT
TIME...THEREFORE THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS 40 KT. THE NEXT AIR
FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE MISSION IS SCHEDULED TO REACH KARL
AROUND 0600 UTC.
THE AIRCRAFT FIXES AND A COUPLE OF RECENT SSMIS MICROWAVE IMAGES
SHOW THAT THE CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE SMALL
MASS OF DEEP CONVECTION...WHICH SUGGESTS THAT THERE IS SOME LIGHT
EASTERLY SHEAR. THE SHEAR...HOWEVER...IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE
INHIBITIVE FOR STRENGTHENING...AND SOME INTENSIFICATION IS POSSIBLE
BEFORE KARL REACHES THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. OVER
THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO...WATERS ARE WARM AND THE SHEAR IS
EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT...THEREFORE STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED. THE
GFDL...LGEM...SHIPS...AND FLORIDA STATE SUPERENSEMBLE ALL SHOW KARL
AT HURRICANE STRENGTH BEFORE IT REACHES THE COAST OF MAINLAND
MEXICO IN ABOUT 72 HOURS. THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY ABOUT
WHAT KIND OF STRUCTURE KARL WILL HAVE AFTER CROSSING THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA...HOWEVER GIVEN THE FAVORABLE CONDITIONS AND MODEL
AGREEMENT...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST BRINGS KARL TO HURRICANE STATUS
AT THAT TIME.
THE INITIAL MOTION IS 290/13. THE TRACK FORECAST PHILOSOPHY REMAINS
UNCHANGED. KARL IS EXPECTED TO MOVE GENERALLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
AROUND THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF A DEEP-LAYER RIDGE ALONG THE
NORTHERN GULF COAST. THE TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT
THROUGH 48 HOURS...WITH INCREASED SPREAD THEREAFTER...AS SOME OF THE
MODELS TURN KARL WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD NEAR THE COAST OF MAINLAND
MEXICO. THE NEW NHC TRACK IS ESSENTIALLY AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS
ADVISORY AND IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE GFS AND ECMWF MODELS.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 15/0300Z 18.6N 85.5W 40 KT
12HR VT 15/1200Z 19.2N 87.3W 50 KT
24HR VT 16/0000Z 20.0N 89.5W 30 KT...INLAND
36HR VT 16/1200Z 20.7N 91.6W 35 KT
48HR VT 17/0000Z 21.1N 93.4W 50 KT
72HR VT 18/0000Z 21.5N 96.7W 65 KT
96HR VT 19/0000Z 21.5N 100.5W 25 KT...INLAND
120HR VT 20/0000Z...DISSIPATED
$$
FORECASTER BROWN
Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Humberto/Ike/Harvey
Member: National Weather Association
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srainhoutx
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Latest microwave...
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biggerbyte
- Posts: 1142
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- Location: Porter, Texas. (Montgomery County)
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We need to watch Karl as he crosses into the BOC. There is a possibility that he gets into the BOC then stalls. Too early to say what would happen with the ridge during this period, as far as allowing a shift in track. Karl could just sit there and not actually get pulled northward, but rather wait for weakness in the ridge to fill back in and head for Mexico again.
Just something to watch.
Just something to watch.
-
srainhoutx
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Karl looks very impressive this morning as it nears Chetumal on the Y/P. I see what may well be an eyewall structure developing.
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srainhoutx
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000
WTNT33 KNHC 151145
TCPAT3
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM KARL INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 3A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132010
700 AM CDT WED SEP 15 2010
...CENTER OF KARL ABOUT TO MAKE LANDFALL ON THE EAST COAST OF THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO...
SUMMARY OF 700 AM CDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.6N 87.6W
ABOUT 45 MI...75 KM E OF CHETUMAL MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...991 MB...29.26 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...
NONE.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM CHETUMAL AT THE
MEXICO/BELIZE BORDER NORTHWARD TO CABO CATOCHE
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IN IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF NORTHERN BELIZE FROM BELIZE CITY TO THE MEXICO/BELIZE
BORDER
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 24
HOURS.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 24 HOURS.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 700 AM CDT...1200 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KARL WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 87.6 WEST. KARL IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH. THIS GENERAL MOTION
IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH SOME DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED DURING
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF
KARL WILL MAKE LANDFALL ON THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO IN THE
NEXT HOUR OR TWO...CROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA LATER TODAY...AND
MOVE INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO TONIGHT OR THURSDAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 65 MPH...100 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE AND KARL COULD
APPROACH HURRICANE INTENSITY JUST BEFORE LANDFALL. WEAKENING IS
EXPECTED AFTER LANDFALL...AND RESTRENGTHENING IS FORECAST ON
THURSDAY AFTER KARL MOVES OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO...
WHERE KARL IS LIKELY TO BECOME A HURRICANE.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES...75 KM
FROM THE CENTER. A MEXICAN AUTOMATED STATION AT BANCO CHINCHORRO
RECENTLY REPORTED SUSTAINED WINDS OF 49 MPH...79 KM/HR...AND A WIND
GUST OF 62 MPH...100 KM/HR.
THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE ESTIMATED FROM AIR FORCE RESERVE
HURRICANE HUNTER DATA IS 991 MB...29.26 INCHES.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE SPREADING OVER PORTIONS OF THE
WARNING AREA.
STORM SURGE...A STORM SURGE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE SOME COASTAL
FLOODING NEAR AND TO THE NORTH OF WHERE THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL.
NEAR THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND
DAMAGING WAVES.
RAINFALL...KARL IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 3
TO 5 INCHES OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...BELIZE...AND NORTHERN
GUATEMALA...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 8 INCHES.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1000 AM CDT.
$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
WTNT33 KNHC 151145
TCPAT3
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM KARL INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 3A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132010
700 AM CDT WED SEP 15 2010
...CENTER OF KARL ABOUT TO MAKE LANDFALL ON THE EAST COAST OF THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO...
SUMMARY OF 700 AM CDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.6N 87.6W
ABOUT 45 MI...75 KM E OF CHETUMAL MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...991 MB...29.26 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...
NONE.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM CHETUMAL AT THE
MEXICO/BELIZE BORDER NORTHWARD TO CABO CATOCHE
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IN IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF NORTHERN BELIZE FROM BELIZE CITY TO THE MEXICO/BELIZE
BORDER
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 24
HOURS.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 24 HOURS.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 700 AM CDT...1200 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KARL WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 87.6 WEST. KARL IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH. THIS GENERAL MOTION
IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH SOME DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED DURING
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF
KARL WILL MAKE LANDFALL ON THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO IN THE
NEXT HOUR OR TWO...CROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA LATER TODAY...AND
MOVE INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO TONIGHT OR THURSDAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 65 MPH...100 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE AND KARL COULD
APPROACH HURRICANE INTENSITY JUST BEFORE LANDFALL. WEAKENING IS
EXPECTED AFTER LANDFALL...AND RESTRENGTHENING IS FORECAST ON
THURSDAY AFTER KARL MOVES OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO...
WHERE KARL IS LIKELY TO BECOME A HURRICANE.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES...75 KM
FROM THE CENTER. A MEXICAN AUTOMATED STATION AT BANCO CHINCHORRO
RECENTLY REPORTED SUSTAINED WINDS OF 49 MPH...79 KM/HR...AND A WIND
GUST OF 62 MPH...100 KM/HR.
THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE ESTIMATED FROM AIR FORCE RESERVE
HURRICANE HUNTER DATA IS 991 MB...29.26 INCHES.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE SPREADING OVER PORTIONS OF THE
WARNING AREA.
STORM SURGE...A STORM SURGE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE SOME COASTAL
FLOODING NEAR AND TO THE NORTH OF WHERE THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL.
NEAR THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND
DAMAGING WAVES.
RAINFALL...KARL IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 3
TO 5 INCHES OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...BELIZE...AND NORTHERN
GUATEMALA...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 8 INCHES.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1000 AM CDT.
$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Humberto/Ike/Harvey
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srainhoutx
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Sunrise...
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srainhoutx
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Very impressive...
Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Humberto/Ike/Harvey
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srainhoutx
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000
WTNT63 KNHC 151308
TCUAT3
TROPICAL STORM KARL TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132010
810 AM CDT WED SEP 15 2010
DATA FROM THE BELIZE CITY RADAR INDICATES THAT THE CENTER OF KARL
MADE LANDFALL AT ABOUT 745 AM CDT...1245 UTC...ON THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA OF MEXICO ABOUT 30 MILES...50 KM...EAST-NORTHEAST OF
CHETUMAL MEXICO.
SUMMARY OF 745 AM CDT...1245 UTC...INFORMATION
--------------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.6N 87.8W
ABOUT 30 MI...50 KM ENE OF CHETUMAL MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...23 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...991 MB...29.26 INCHES
$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
WTNT63 KNHC 151308
TCUAT3
TROPICAL STORM KARL TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132010
810 AM CDT WED SEP 15 2010
DATA FROM THE BELIZE CITY RADAR INDICATES THAT THE CENTER OF KARL
MADE LANDFALL AT ABOUT 745 AM CDT...1245 UTC...ON THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA OF MEXICO ABOUT 30 MILES...50 KM...EAST-NORTHEAST OF
CHETUMAL MEXICO.
SUMMARY OF 745 AM CDT...1245 UTC...INFORMATION
--------------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.6N 87.8W
ABOUT 30 MI...50 KM ENE OF CHETUMAL MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...23 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...991 MB...29.26 INCHES
$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Humberto/Ike/Harvey
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