January 2024

[don]

Yikes BOTH of the two WRF models have freezing rain starting in the metro area by tomorrow evening. Hopefully, it's overdoing things. They also have freezing rain and sleet over all of SE Texas most of the day Monday to the coast. Could be looking at winter storm warnings on Monday if the trends continue.

wrf-arw_ref_frzn_scus_30 (1).png

wrf-arw2_ref_frzn_scus_35.png

[don]

Here is a closer look at the WRF. It also shows a large swath of ice accumulation of .10-.20 of an inch.

wrf-arw_2024-01-14-00Z_033_31.548_263.03_28.084_266.362_Rain-Snow_Radar_highways.png

zr_acc-imp.us_sc (1).png

[Stratton20]

Woah! precip lasts a good 24-36 hours on the wrf, could get really nasty potentially

[MontgomeryCoWx]

These types of disturbances either disappoint or punch you in the crotch. Seen it a lot the last decade

[tireman4]

These types of disturbances either disappoint or punch you in the crotch. Seen it a lot the last decade

Oh sir, the crotch, MoCo. Lol

[walsean1]

Here is a closer look at the WRF. It also shows a large swath of ice accumulation of .10-.20 of an inch.


wrf-arw_2024-01-14-00Z_033_31.548_263.03_28.084_266.362_Rain-Snow_Radar_highways.png

zr_acc-imp.us_sc (1).png

We will see if the models still show this in the next runs but considering the NWS Houston/Galveston has extended the Winter Weather Advisory further south is a trend

[MontgomeryCoWx]

Expect all of Harris and northern coastal to be included

[tireman4]

Expect all of Harris and northern coastal to be included

Totally agree.

[MontgomeryCoWx]

Seeing a -39 reading in Yoakum on weather underground.

Sir, what did you import.

[brazoriatx]

When does the next update come out for houston/Galveston?

[Ptarmigan]

The forecast models are trending more southward in terms of wintry precipitation. I am more concerned about freezing rain as it makes roads dangerous and cause tree to fall on power lines.

[davidiowx]

The forecast models are trending more southward in terms of wintry precipitation. I am more concerned about freezing rain as it makes roads dangerous and cause tree to fall on power lines.

You and I both.

[DoctorMu]

The forecast models are trending more southward in terms of wintry precipitation. I am more concerned about freezing rain as it makes roads dangerous and cause tree to fall on power lines.

Yep. It's going to be touch and go. Another Now-casting winter event.

[DoctorMu]

Icy, sleet = Slippery. Possible tree branch breakage.






Event: Winter Weather Advisory
Alert:
...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM SUNDAY TO 6 PM CST
MONDAY...

* WHAT...Freezing rain expected. Total ice accumulations of up to
one tenth of an inch may result in icy patches on elevated
roadways such as bridges and overpasses.

* WHERE...Portions of southeast Texas.

* WHEN...From 6 PM Sunday to 6 PM CST Monday.

* IMPACTS...Difficult travel conditions are possible. The
hazardous conditions could impact the morning or evening
commute.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Sleet/ice pellets may mix into the freezing
rain at times. The higher ice accumulations are expected
generally north of SH-1*5 and east of I-45.
Instructions: Slow down and use caution while traveling. Prepare for possible power outages. The latest road conditions for the state you are calling from can be obtained by calling 5 1 1.
Target Area:
Austin
Brazos
Burleson
Colorado
Grimes
Houston
Madison
Montgomery
Northern Liberty
Polk
San Jacinto
Trinity
Walker
Waller
Washington

[don]

0Z NAM & WRF ice accumulation.

zr_acc-imp.us_sc (1).png

zr_acc-imp.us_sc (2).png

[brazoriatx]

Icy, sleet = Slippery. Possible tree branch breakage.






Event: Winter Weather Advisory
Alert:
...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM SUNDAY TO 6 PM CST
MONDAY...

* WHAT...Freezing rain expected. Total ice accumulations of up to
one tenth of an inch may result in icy patches on elevated
roadways such as bridges and overpasses.

* WHERE...Portions of southeast Texas.

* WHEN...From 6 PM Sunday to 6 PM CST Monday.

* IMPACTS...Difficult travel conditions are possible. The
hazardous conditions could impact the morning or evening
commute.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Sleet/ice pellets may mix into the freezing
rain at times. The higher ice accumulations are expected
generally north of SH-1*5 and east of I-45.
Instructions: Slow down and use caution while traveling. Prepare for possible power outages. The latest road conditions for the state you are calling from can be obtained by calling 5 1 1.
Target Area:
Austin
Brazos
Burleson
Colorado
Grimes
Houston
Madison
Montgomery
Northern Liberty
Polk
San Jacinto
Trinity
Walker
Waller
Washington

So it won't be extended to the coastal counties then

[Cpv17]

Icy, sleet = Slippery. Possible tree branch breakage.






Event: Winter Weather Advisory
Alert:
...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM SUNDAY TO 6 PM CST
MONDAY...

* WHAT...Freezing rain expected. Total ice accumulations of up to
one tenth of an inch may result in icy patches on elevated
roadways such as bridges and overpasses.

* WHERE...Portions of southeast Texas.

* WHEN...From 6 PM Sunday to 6 PM CST Monday.

* IMPACTS...Difficult travel conditions are possible. The
hazardous conditions could impact the morning or evening
commute.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Sleet/ice pellets may mix into the freezing
rain at times. The higher ice accumulations are expected
generally north of SH-1*5 and east of I-45.
Instructions: Slow down and use caution while traveling. Prepare for possible power outages. The latest road conditions for the state you are calling from can be obtained by calling 5 1 1.
Target Area:
Austin
Brazos
Burleson
Colorado
Grimes
Houston
Madison
Montgomery
Northern Liberty
Polk
San Jacinto
Trinity
Walker
Waller
Washington

So it won't be extended to the coastal counties then

Look at the models. Those that Doc posted are globals. At this short range of time, use the mesos.

[DoctorMu]

I've been posting both. There's more sleet + frz rain up in CLL on the NAM. We're near the transition line between a mix and freezing rain. Mostly freezing rain closer to HOU.

[DoctorMu]

ummmmmm....the low NWS has down in the Valley on Monday - could it migrate our way?

I'm feeling some overperforming in temp. and precip.



As even colder air pushes in late Monday, it pushes the remaining
moisture off the coast. I mentioned this yesterday as well, but I
wouldn`t be entirely surprised to see some sleet mixed in with the
rain further south outside of the current Winter Weather Advisory.
Although temperatures at the surface may be just above freezing, the
cold layer aloft is still greater than the ~1000 ft threshold to
freeze droplets...and the above freezing layer is only a few hundred
feet so "theoretically" at least some ice pellets could make it to
the ground. After all of the precipitation is out of here, our
attention turns to the temperatures. On Monday night, temperatures
will range from the mid teens to the mid 20s across the region.
However, with a northerly wind around 20-25 mph prevailing
throughout the night...it`ll feel MUCH colder than that. Wind chill
values on Monday night/Tuesday morning will be near or just below
zero across our northern areas and single digits elsewhere. Our
criteria for a Wind Chill Warning is wind chill values less than 0°F
and for a Wind Chill Advisory it`s wind chill values less than 13°F,
so a mixture of these may be needed during this timeframe. The last
time both of these cold weather hazards were issued was during
Christmastime of 2022.

[DoctorMu]

Beefing up the action all the way to the coast.