January 2024

[brazoriatx]

Appreciate it don and tireman4

[Stratton20]

SREF mean, little more aggressive with freezing rain potential

[don]

The amounts the SREF shows would meet winter storm warning criteria for us. (above a .10 of ice accumulation)

[christinac2016]

Abc13 on TikTok “debunking” polar vortex myth/rumor.

[user:null]

Will see how things eventually finalize. But so far, everything has been staying/trending milder which each step. Be it GFS, EURO, NAM, etc. Even the coldest ICON has been taking the hint.

As far as coldest night, it's a tough call because Monday night-Tuesday morning has lots of wind and cloud (hence, no radiational cooling) ... but the core of the airmass is still rather Texas-focused for strongest advection. But Tuesday night-Wednesday morning goes calmer (hence, more radiational cooling) ... but the airmass has since spread eastward along the rest of the Gulf states (not to mention the wildcard of cloud cover, depending on which upper-level pattern verifies).

Otherwise (for now), I'd say staying within 20s is a reasonable forecast for core Houston and points south/coastward — a spread of lower-upper 20s depending on how far inland/away from heat island. I think teens manifest mainly in places like College Station, Huntsville, Conroe, etc and they shouldn't be all that deep even then (mostly upper teens).

Speaking of icy precip, bulk of it seems to be staying in Central Texas (more ZRN) northeast to Texarkana area (more SLT). By the time it crosses Houston, maybe just strays of ZRN or SLT: based on 18z HRRR.

Taking into account precip, this event is looking more like Feb 2011 and Jan 2018 at worst.

[DoctorMu]

South of 59 just has to deal with cold. Yawn. Next.

South of 59 is never meant for Winter.


Looks exciting for the kids at home. Thinking this will over perform.

In 2017 it snowed all the way down to the coast. I was down in Palacios that night.

Dec 24, 2004 Snow Miracle.

[DoctorMu]

Advisories just expanded into SE Texas. Expect further expansions if the trends continue.


hgx (1).png

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
213 PM CST Sat Jan 13 2024

TXZ163-164-176>179-195>200-210>212-140600-
/O.NEW.KHGX.WW.Y.0001.240115T0000Z-240116T0000Z/
Houston-Trinity-Madison-Walker-San Jacinto-Polk-Burleson-Brazos-
Washington-Grimes-Montgomery-Northern Liberty-Colorado-Austin-
Waller-
Including the cities of Crockett, Trinity, Groveton,
Madisonville, Huntsville, Shepherd, Coldspring, Livingston,
Corrigan, Caldwell, Somerville, College Station, Bryan, Brenham,
Navasota, Conroe, The Woodlands, Liberty, Cleveland, Dayton,
Columbus, Eagle Lake, Weimar, Sealy, Bellville, Hempstead,
Prairie View, Brookshire, and Waller
213 PM CST Sat Jan 13 2024

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM SUNDAY TO 6 PM CST
MONDAY...

* WHAT...Freezing rain expected. Total ice accumulations of up to
one tenth of an inch may result in icy patches on elevated
roadways such as bridges and overpasses.

* WHERE...Portions of southeast Texas.

* WHEN...From 6 PM Sunday to 6 PM CST Monday.

* IMPACTS...Difficult travel conditions are possible. The
hazardous conditions could impact the morning or evening
commute.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Sleet/ice pellets may mix into the freezing
rain at times. The higher ice accumulations are expected
generally north of SH-105 and east of I-45.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Slow down and use caution while traveling. Prepare for possible
power outages.

The latest road conditions for the state you are calling from can
be obtained by calling 5 1 1.

&&

As expected.

[DoctorMu]

Abc13 on TikTok “debunking” polar vortex myth/rumor.

Tik Tok.

[Stratton20]

I see a janaury thaw showing up in the models, hopefully that period is short lived, give me 30’s and 40’s for the rest of winter please!

[DoctorMu]

Canadian and Euro are still blowing cold. Not 2021 cold, but arctic here in CLL.

[DoctorMu]

Most of the Mesos have freezing rain, sleet north of Hwy 1*5, some as far south as Hwy 59 late Sunday/Monday.

[DoctorMu]

Ι'm seeing below normal temps for the rest of January. But not arctic after the coming week. We'll see.

Early February could be Part II.

[DoctorMu]

From KBTX - they are seeing the light:

There is a possibility for a good portion of the Brazos Valley, that once we fall below freezing Sunday morning, we may not climb above 32° until sometime Wednesday.

[user:null]

I see a janaury thaw showing up in the models, hopefully that period is short lived, give me 30’s and 40’s for the rest of winter please!

Yes ... so far those temps remain only as nighttime lows!

[MontgomeryCoWx]

The rest of winter will be well below normal. There’s about. A 3-5 day relaxation with highs around 60-65. February looks phenomenal in this pattern.

[Stratton20]

Newest SREF NMB run, definitely winter storm criteria here, though the model may be over doing it just a tad, but you never know, over performing is something to watch for

[don]

0Z HRRR has caved towards the NAM bringing freezing rain into the metro.

hrrr-houston-refc_ptype-5363200.png

[DoctorMu]

Classic overrun to Hwy 59 or 1*5.

[Stratton20]

00z NAM coming in a little more bullish with ice totals fwiw

[don]

0Z NAM came in faster with the freeze line. And now shows frozen precip in Harris County as early as midnight tomorrow with freezing rain all day Monday in the metro.

download (10).png

download (11).png

zr_acc-imp.us_sc.png