Well that sure changed quickly.
January 2024
Just to clarify, the previous ICON runs (the 00z and yesterday's 12z) were well below freezing highs for SE Texas all of Monday and Tuesday (highs only in the 20s), with ultimate lows deep into the teens across SE Texas/SW Louisiana. It was even showing sub-freezing highs and low 20s down to Lower RGV and even parts of Tamaulipas.
The latest 12z ICON, instead, shows above freezing high temps in SE Texas for Monday and Tuesday, with Wednesday morning only in low 20s — any teens were brief on Tuesday morning confined to inland areas. Upper 20s/low 30s for the Lower RGV.
It's true that ICON does very well in handling "shallow cold" that gives other models fits — honestly, it's a very underrated model, considering that it gets less attention on forums, socials, etc compared to both GFS and EURO. But even with "shallow cold", factors like upper-air patterns, trajectories + strengths of leading storm system, etc all still influence the ultimate outcome of whether it all plunges into Texas or scoots more eastward.
Actually, the EURO has the higher resolution (9km) compared to either CMC (22km) or ICON (12km) — if anything, the EURO should be better than both in terms of "handling shallow air/radiational cooling".
The latest 12z ICON, instead, shows above freezing high temps in SE Texas for Monday and Tuesday, with Wednesday morning only in low 20s — any teens were brief on Tuesday morning confined to inland areas. Upper 20s/low 30s for the Lower RGV.
It's true that ICON does very well in handling "shallow cold" that gives other models fits — honestly, it's a very underrated model, considering that it gets less attention on forums, socials, etc compared to both GFS and EURO. But even with "shallow cold", factors like upper-air patterns, trajectories + strengths of leading storm system, etc all still influence the ultimate outcome of whether it all plunges into Texas or scoots more eastward.
Actually, the EURO has the higher resolution (9km) compared to either CMC (22km) or ICON (12km) — if anything, the EURO should be better than both in terms of "handling shallow air/radiational cooling".
25.9°F last night for us IMFY. We're up to 62°F with dry SW Mexican winds now.MontgomeryCoWx wrote: ↑Wed Jan 10, 2024 10:07 amDoes anyone really know how the iPhone app and others digests temps?
I know TWC and WU have a heavy dose of climo in them past 5 days and that’s why they don’t correct until it gets close.
Yep. It's going to be close, and there will be another storm behind the front during a prolonged cold spell.
eehhh... none of these precip models are impressing me lol
KBTX is still seeing a solid week of sub-freezing nights with lows in the teens and low 20s on 3 nights. Highs in the 30s for 2 days. Not 2021 cold, but certainly arctic air. 30% chance of wintry mix still on tap for Monday.
Last edited by DoctorMu on Wed Jan 10, 2024 12:47 pm, edited 1 time in total.
12z CMC has more wintry mix than 0z FWIW.
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Stratton20
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12z euro has a much slower progressing shortwave with precipitation starting sunday and lasting through tuesday morning, nasty ice storm developing, has a glazing of ice in houston fwiw
12Z EURO ice accumulation.
Does it make it to Louisiana?Stratton20 wrote: ↑Wed Jan 10, 2024 12:58 pm 12z euro has a much slower progressing shortwave with precipitation starting sunday and lasting through tuesday morning, nasty ice storm developing, has a glazing of ice in houston fwiw
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Stratton20
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Harp1 yes it does, covers most of Louisiana actually lol, but the setup looks to be ice/ sleet with maybe some flurries
Thanks. I’ll take the sleetStratton20 wrote: ↑Wed Jan 10, 2024 1:04 pm Harp1 yes it does, covers most of Louisiana actually lol, but the setup looks to be ice/ sleet with maybe some flurries
SSW 21 G32 are blowing my neighbor's trees leaves out of our front yard. haha.
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MontgomeryCoWx
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On a side note. I’ve been talking and listening with/to Kurt Warner over the last 30 minutes.
One of the coolest dudes and a great message.
One of the coolest dudes and a great message.
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tireman4
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Lindner, Jeff (Flood Control)
Wed 1/10/2024 7:38 AM
Arctic air mass will arrive into SE TX late Sunday and remain in place early next week.
Preparations for sub-freezing temperatures including a hard freeze (24F or lower for 2 hrs or more) should begin with protections that require longer lead times.
A very cold arctic air mass will be dislodged out of NW Canada late this week and enter the US northern plains this weekend and then plow southward down the plains into Texas on Sunday. Current timing brings the front into SE TX Sunday evening and off the coast by midnight with temperatures quickly falling to freezing by Monday morning sunrise. Such dense cold air masses usually are faster than the global guidance indicates and the front could reach SE TX Sunday afternoon…we will be coming into the range of the better shorter guidance over the next 24-36 hours which will help add confidence to the frontal timing.
Cold air mass will quickly surge into the region Sunday night with freezing conditions over many areas by Monday morning. Strong cold air advection will limit warming on Monday with highs struggling to reach the mid and upper 30’s over the area…some locations north of HWY 105 may remain below freezing throughout the day on Monday.
With cold arctic high pressure overhead into Monday night/Tuesday morning a hard freeze is likely for many areas. Upper 10’s/low 20’s north of HWY 105, Low-mid 20’s north of I-10 and mid to upper 20’s across the coastal areas. There is still some uncertainty on how cold temperatures may fall and this depends on several factors (cloud cover, winds, and intensity of the air mass) which can change over the next 4-5 days. Another freeze and possible hard freeze is likely Tuesday night/Wednesday AM. Many locations will experience greater than 10-15 hours below freezing and these durations will be fine tuned in the coming days.
A quick look back and comparison to the outbreaks of Feb 2021 and Dec 2022 suggest this upcoming event will be warmer than both of those events with respect to overnight low temperatures.
Feb 2021: 10-13 degrees warmer
Dec 2022: 5-8 degrees warmer
Precipitation:
There will likely be some showers along and ahead of the front on Sunday evening, but most of the guidance indicates any rainfall ending prior to the arrival of temperatures that would be cause for any winter precipitation. The EMCWF continues to advertise a wetter post frontal air mass, but has little support from the other global guidance and if anything has trended drier in the recent runs. While not completely zero, the threat for any freezing or frozen precipitation at this time looks low.
Preparations:
Precautions to protect infrastructure, animals/livestock, plants, and people will be needed. Any winterization situations that require longer lead times should be underway. Similar preparations that were completed for the cold air outbreak in Dec 2022 should be considered for this event. All winterization efforts should be completed by Sunday afternoon.
Jeff Lindner
Director Hydrologic Operations Division/Meteorologist
Harris County Flood Control District
Wed 1/10/2024 7:38 AM
Arctic air mass will arrive into SE TX late Sunday and remain in place early next week.
Preparations for sub-freezing temperatures including a hard freeze (24F or lower for 2 hrs or more) should begin with protections that require longer lead times.
A very cold arctic air mass will be dislodged out of NW Canada late this week and enter the US northern plains this weekend and then plow southward down the plains into Texas on Sunday. Current timing brings the front into SE TX Sunday evening and off the coast by midnight with temperatures quickly falling to freezing by Monday morning sunrise. Such dense cold air masses usually are faster than the global guidance indicates and the front could reach SE TX Sunday afternoon…we will be coming into the range of the better shorter guidance over the next 24-36 hours which will help add confidence to the frontal timing.
Cold air mass will quickly surge into the region Sunday night with freezing conditions over many areas by Monday morning. Strong cold air advection will limit warming on Monday with highs struggling to reach the mid and upper 30’s over the area…some locations north of HWY 105 may remain below freezing throughout the day on Monday.
With cold arctic high pressure overhead into Monday night/Tuesday morning a hard freeze is likely for many areas. Upper 10’s/low 20’s north of HWY 105, Low-mid 20’s north of I-10 and mid to upper 20’s across the coastal areas. There is still some uncertainty on how cold temperatures may fall and this depends on several factors (cloud cover, winds, and intensity of the air mass) which can change over the next 4-5 days. Another freeze and possible hard freeze is likely Tuesday night/Wednesday AM. Many locations will experience greater than 10-15 hours below freezing and these durations will be fine tuned in the coming days.
A quick look back and comparison to the outbreaks of Feb 2021 and Dec 2022 suggest this upcoming event will be warmer than both of those events with respect to overnight low temperatures.
Feb 2021: 10-13 degrees warmer
Dec 2022: 5-8 degrees warmer
Precipitation:
There will likely be some showers along and ahead of the front on Sunday evening, but most of the guidance indicates any rainfall ending prior to the arrival of temperatures that would be cause for any winter precipitation. The EMCWF continues to advertise a wetter post frontal air mass, but has little support from the other global guidance and if anything has trended drier in the recent runs. While not completely zero, the threat for any freezing or frozen precipitation at this time looks low.
Preparations:
Precautions to protect infrastructure, animals/livestock, plants, and people will be needed. Any winterization situations that require longer lead times should be underway. Similar preparations that were completed for the cold air outbreak in Dec 2022 should be considered for this event. All winterization efforts should be completed by Sunday afternoon.
Jeff Lindner
Director Hydrologic Operations Division/Meteorologist
Harris County Flood Control District
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Stratton20
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Looks good but linders comments about precip really dont make sense, the euro has not trended drier, if anything the opposite, it has support from the CMC op run and its ensembles as well as its own ensembles, other than that spot on update
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brazoriatx
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Like everyone else they don't wanna comment one way or another till it's closer to the actual dayStratton20 wrote: ↑Wed Jan 10, 2024 1:44 pm Looks good but linders comments about precip really dont make sense, the euro has not trended drier, if anything the opposite, it has support from the CMC op run and its ensembles as well as its own ensembles, other than that spot on update
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tireman4
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Stratton20 wrote: ↑Wed Jan 10, 2024 1:44 pm Looks good but linders comments about precip really dont make sense, the euro has not trended drier, if anything the opposite, it has support from the CMC op run and its ensembles as well as its own ensembles, other than that spot on update
We are still aways out. Remember what Wxman 57 stated in S2K, "but don't trust anything this far out"
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MontgomeryCoWx
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He wrote that either last night or early morning. That’s typically when he writes them for early release.Stratton20 wrote: ↑Wed Jan 10, 2024 1:44 pm Looks good but linders comments about precip really dont make sense, the euro has not trended drier, if anything the opposite, it has support from the CMC op run and its ensembles as well as its own ensembles, other than that spot on update
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