TD Karl Inland West of Veracruz, MX

[srainhoutx]

AF RECON has departed with no W wind found, although winds are up a bit. It does appear that 92L is elongated and convection is actually looking better. Another RECON is scheduled for 18Z. I suspect that if convection maintains and even expands a bit, a W wind would likely be found and TD 13 will be declared. We shall see.

[Scott747]

12z GFS is much more bullish with 92l in the southern BOC.

*edit*

12z

[Scott747]

The fella (wxmx, Jorge) that chases in Mexico with Josh now was all over the 12z run as well.

[srainhoutx]

Best GFS run in a while regarding development.

09132010 12Z gfs_ten_096l.gif

09132010 12Z gfs_ten_120l.gif

[srainhoutx]

The RECON missions will continue...

000
NOUS42 KNHC 131550
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1150 AM EDT MON 13 SEPTEMBER 2010
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 14/1100Z TO 15/1100Z SEPTEMBER 2010
TCPOD NUMBER.....10-105

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. SUSPECT AREA (CARIBBEAN)
FLIGHT ONE -- TEAL 70
A. 14/1800Z
B. AFXXX 01EEA INVEST
C. 14/1500Z
D. 18.0N 84.0W
E. 14/1730Z TO 14/2100Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

FLIGHT TWO -- TEAL 71
A. 15/0600,1200Z
B. AFXXX 0213A CYCLONE
C. 15/0245Z
D. 19.0N 86.5W
E. 15/0530Z TO 15/1200Z
F. SFC TO 15,000 FT

2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK.....NEGATIVE.
3. ADDITIONAL DAY OUTLOOK: POSSIBLE FIX OF HURRICANE
IGOR AT 16/1800Z NEAR 23.5N 58.5W.
4. REMARKS: SEVERAL RESEARCH FLIGHTS ARE POSSIBLE FOR TUESDAY.
A. THE NSF/NCAR G-V WILL FLY A 7 HR MISSION BETWEEN
41,000 AND 43,000 FT WITH TAKEOFF AT 14/1200Z.
B. THE NOAA G-IV MAY FLY AN 8 HR MISSION BETWEEN
41,000 AND 45,000 FT WITH TAKEOFF AT 14/1730Z.
C. THE NASA DC-8 MAY FLY AN 8 HR MISSION BETWEEN
35,000 AND 39,000 FT WITH TAKEOFF AT 14/1900Z.
D. NOAA 43 AND 42 P-3 AIRCRAFT MAY CONTINUE A SERIES
OF MISSIONS BETWEEN 7,000 AND 12,000 FT WITH
TAKEOFFS AT 14/2000Z AND 15/0800Z...RESPECTIVELY.
E. NASA'S WB-57 MAY FLY A MISSION BETWEEN 52,000
AND 60,000 FT DEPARTING AT 14/2000Z.
5. ADDITIONAL REMARK:. AIR FORCE MISSIONS FOR 13/1800Z AND
14/0600

[srainhoutx]

Still needs so work before this is declared, but certainly looks a bit better development wise...

[srainhoutx]

2 PM TWO...

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN POORLY ORGANIZED IN ASSOCIATION
WITH A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE WEST-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN
SEA. SOME DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE AT IT MOVES
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AROUND 20 MPH...AND THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE...
40 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS. REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
IS POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF HISPANIOLA...JAMAICA...CUBA...THE
CAYMAN ISLANDS...AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA DURING THE NEXT DAY OR
TWO. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD
SLIDES...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS OF MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN.

[srainhoutx]

HWRF and GFDL are much stronger this run...

[Scott747]

12z Euro remains consistent. Tries to develop it nearing the YP and then organizes in the BOC and strengthens up to landfall near Tampico.

[srainhoutx]

18Z Tracks...

[Andrew]

Someone on another forum posted a link, and here is a great image for all recon planes and other missions in the future:

[srainhoutx]

Sunset in the Western Caribbean. Interesting to note that guidance is beginning to sniff out a more favorable pattern regarding development across the Western Basin. La Nina years can offer some 'later' than what we might expect storms in the Gulf and Caribbean. I suspect we will see at least a TD/TS declared before this disturbance is said and done.

[srainhoutx]

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE OVER THE WEST-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA REMAIN POORLY
ORGANIZED AND HAVE WEAKENED OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS. HOWEVER...
SOME DEVELOPMENT IS STILL POSSIBLE WHILE THIS SYSTEM IS OVER THE
NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...AND THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE...
40 PERCENT...OF TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION BEFORE IT MOVES INLAND
OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA BY WEDNESDAY EVENING. REGARDLESS OF
DEVELOPMENT...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF
HISPANIOLA...JAMAICA...CUBA...THE CAYMAN ISLANDS...AND THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE
LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS
OF MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN.

[srainhoutx]

Perhaps I'm blind, but this looks a bit too far S regarding what the models 'see' as cyclogenisis of this disturbance...

Code: Select all

094 
WHXX01 KWBC 140032
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0032 UTC TUE SEP 14 2010
 
DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.
 
ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR
 
DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL922010) 20100914 0000 UTC
 
        ...00 HRS...   ...12 HRS...   ...24 HRS. ..   ...36 HRS...
        100914  0000   100914  1200   100915  0000   100915  1200
 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS    16.0N  79.8W   16.4N  81.5W   17.1N  83.3W   17.9N  85.4W
BAMD    16.0N  79.8W   16.5N  82.1W   17.1N  84.5W   17.6N  86.9W
BAMM    16.0N  79.8W   16.5N  81.8W   17.1N  83.9W   17.9N  86.1W
LBAR    16.0N  79.8W   16.5N  82.6W   17.5N  85.5W   18.5N  88.5W
SHIP        25KTS          29KTS          37KTS          49KTS
DSHP        25KTS          29KTS          37KTS          49KTS
 
        ...48 HRS...   ...72 HRS...   ...96 HRS. ..   ..120 HRS...
        100916  0000   100917  0000   100918  0000   100919  0000
 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS    19.0N  87.2W   20.7N  90.8W   21.6N  94.1W   21.9N  98.4W
BAMD    18.2N  89.2W   18.8N  93.2W   18.3N  96.3W   18.2N 100.0W
BAMM    18.8N  88.2W   20.2N  92.0W   20.7N  95.2W   20.8N  99.1W
LBAR    19.9N  91.1W   22.8N  94.7W   24.8N  96.4W   25.6N  98.1W
SHIP        60KTS          78KTS          89KTS          89KTS
DSHP        46KTS          42KTS          53KTS          34KTS
 
         ...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR =  16.0N LONCUR =  79.8W DIRCUR = 275DEG SPDCUR =  14KT
LATM12 =  15.8N LONM12 =  77.1W DIRM12 = 272DEG SPDM12 =  14KT
LATM24 =  15.8N LONM24 =  73.8W
WNDCUR =   25KT RMAXWD =   70NM WNDM12 =   25KT
CENPRS = 1006MB OUTPRS = 1008MB OUTRAD =  150NM SDEPTH =   S
RD34NE =    0NM RD34SE =    0NM RD34SW =    0NM RD34NW =   0NM

[Andrew]

This seems like a similar scenario to what is happening with Igor. The models say WNW-NW but it keeps on trucking "westwardish".

[srainhoutx]

Likely will depend on who is writing the report, Ed. I see enough W wind to close it off, but I'm not the NHC...

Code: Select all

HDOB Observations Independent Calculations from Tropical Atlantic ( About ) 
Time Coordinates Aircraft
Static Air Pressure Aircraft
Geopotential Height Extrapolated
Surface Pressure D-value Flight Level Wind (30 sec. Avg.)  Air Temp. Dew Point Peak (10 sec. Avg.)
Flight Level Wind SFMR
Peak (10s Avg.) Sfc. Wind SFMR
Rain Rate Estimated Surface Wind (30 sec. Avg.)
Using Estimated Reduction Factor Peak Wind at Flight Level to
Est. Surface Reduction Factor 
01:57:30Z 14.950N 79.400W 792.4 mb
(~ 23.40 inHg) 2,112 meters
(~ 6,929 feet) 1008.8 mb
(~ 29.79 inHg) - From 260° at 4 knots
(From the W at ~ 4.6 mph) 17.1°C
(~ 62.8°F) 11.4°C
(~ 52.5°F) 4 knots
(~ 4.6 mph) - - - - 
01:58:00Z 14.983N 79.400W 792.7 mb
(~ 23.41 inHg) 2,109 meters
(~ 6,919 feet) 1008.7 mb
(~ 29.79 inHg) - From 259° at 4 knots
(From the W at ~ 4.6 mph) 17.1°C
(~ 62.8°F) 11.1°C
(~ 52.0°F) 4 knots
(~ 4.6 mph) - - - - 
01:58:30Z 15.017N 79.400W 792.8 mb
(~ 23.41 inHg) 2,107 meters
(~ 6,913 feet) 1008.6 mb
(~ 29.78 inHg) - From 253° at 4 knots
(From the WSW at ~ 4.6 mph) 17.2°C
(~ 63.0°F) 11.0°C
(~ 51.8°F) 4 knots
(~ 4.6 mph) - - - - 
01:59:00Z 15.050N 79.400W 792.6 mb
(~ 23.41 inHg) 2,108 meters
(~ 6,916 feet) 1008.8 mb
(~ 29.79 inHg) - From 270° at 3 knots
(From the W at ~ 3.4 mph) 16.9°C
(~ 62.4°F) 10.6°C
(~ 51.1°F) 4 knots
(~ 4.6 mph) - - - - 
01:59:30Z 15.083N 79.400W 792.7 mb
(~ 23.41 inHg) 2,108 meters
(~ 6,916 feet) 1008.7 mb
(~ 29.79 inHg) - From 265° at 3 knots
(From the W at ~ 3.4 mph) 16.9°C
(~ 62.4°F) 11.0°C
(~ 51.8°F) 3 knots
(~ 3.4 mph) - - - - 
02:00:00Z 15.117N 79.400W 792.7 mb
(~ 23.41 inHg) 2,108 meters
(~ 6,916 feet) 1008.9 mb
(~ 29.79 inHg) - From 258° at 1 knots
(From between the WSW and W at ~ 1.1 mph) 16.7°C
(~ 62.1°F) 11.3°C
(~ 52.3°F) 2 knots
(~ 2.3 mph) - - - - 
02:00:30Z 15.150N 79.400W 792.8 mb
(~ 23.41 inHg) 2,108 meters
(~ 6,916 feet) 1009.2 mb
(~ 29.80 inHg) - From 104° at 1 knots
(From the ESE at ~ 1.1 mph) 16.4°C
(~ 61.5°F) 11.4°C
(~ 52.5°F) 2 knots
(~ 2.3 mph) - - - - 
02:01:00Z 15.183N 79.400W 792.7 mb
(~ 23.41 inHg) 2,108 meters
(~ 6,916 feet) 1009.1 mb
(~ 29.80 inHg) - From 90° at 5 knots
(From the E at ~ 5.8 mph) 16.5°C
(~ 61.7°F) 11.5°C
(~ 52.7°F) 6 knots
(~ 6.9 mph) - - - - 
02:01:30Z 15.217N 79.400W 792.7 mb
(~ 23.41 inHg) 2,108 meters
(~ 6,916 feet) 1008.8 mb
(~ 29.79 inHg) - From 85° at 8 knots
(From the E at ~ 9.2 mph) 16.9°C
(~ 62.4°F) 10.9°C
(~ 51.6°F) 8 knots
(~ 9.2 mph) - - - - 
02:02:00Z 15.267N 79.417W 792.8 mb
(~ 23.41 inHg) 2,108 meters
(~ 6,916 feet) 1008.9 mb
(~ 29.79 inHg) - From 95° at 7 knots
(From the E at ~ 8.0 mph) 16.9°C
(~ 62.4°F) 11.0°C
(~ 51.8°F) 8 knots
(~ 9.2 mph) 

[wxman57]

There could still be a weak LLC tonight, but there's about zero convection. It's had an LLC since it entered the Caribbean, though it's been rather weak. I don't think anything will come of 92L east of the Yucatan.

[Ptarmigan]

GFDL has 92L or Karl as a Category 4 hurricane. I read that the curvature of Mexico encourages storms to undergo rapid intensification.

http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMa ... 10&tstamp=

[srainhoutx]

Just like Alex, this looks to be nearing TD status as it approaches the YP...

SHOWER ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER
THE NORTHWEST CARIBBEAN SEA HAS BECOME A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED
THIS MORNING. THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE WESTWARD TO
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS...AND IT HAS SOME POTENTIAL FOR DEVELOPMENT BEFORE IT MOVES
INLAND OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA BY WEDNESDAY EVENING. THERE IS A
MEDIUM CHANCE...40 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF JAMAICA...
CUBA...THE CAYMAN ISLANDS...AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA DURING THE
NEXT DAY OR TWO. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH
FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS OF MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN.
AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO
INVESTIGATE THIS SYSTEM LATER TODAY...IF NECESSARY.


14/1145 UTC 18.0N 82.2W T2.0/2.0 92L -- Atlantic

[srainhoutx]

12Z Best is very near TD status, if not already...

AL, 92, 2010091412, , BEST, 0, 175N, 822W, 30, 1006, DB,