Again it's very early but you can see the setup at the end of the 12Z ICON. After the second arctic front moves in on Sunday, precipitable waters start to increase again Monday in response to the shortwave/disturbance moving in from the northwest flow aloft. The important thing to note is that this is happening after the cold air is already in place over the state.
don wrote: ↑Sun Jan 07, 2024 5:47 pm
Again it's very early but you can see the setup at the end of the 12Z ICON. After the second arctic front moves in on Sunday, precipitable waters start to increase again Monday in response to the shortwave/disturbance moving in from the northwest flow aloft. The important thing to note is that this is happening after the cold air is already in place over the state.
don wrote: ↑Sun Jan 07, 2024 5:47 pm
Again it's very early but you can see the setup at the end of the 12Z ICON. After the second arctic front moves in on Sunday, precipitable waters start to increase again Monday in response to the shortwave/disturbance moving in from the northwest flow aloft. The important thing to note is that this is happening after the cold air is already in place over the state.
I don’t think the models are not handling the cold air well. I think most of the model runs are coming in warmer than they should and as the cold shots are coming, it will be going over freshly laid snowpack in the northern half of the US.
Overrunning into teens would be something. I’ve experienced that once and it’s amazing how fast the ice accumulates. It’s like the Day after Tomorrow type stuff.