TD Karl Inland West of Veracruz, MX

[Andrew]

FWIW 18z NAM shows farther north track and the ridge does not look nearly as strong:




More and more models have been shifting north little by little. Lets see if the trend continues.

[srainhoutx]

GRIP RECON is currently sampling 92L. It will be interesting to see what data they will find as the afternoon/evening wears on.

http://www.nasa.gov/mission_pages/hurri ... 10_10.html

[Andrew]

Nice Satellite loop:

http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/ge ... mframes=10

[Andrew]

Hmm look at this the GFS finally sees something:

[Andrew]

[Andrew]

Good convection near the center:

[Andrew]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT SUN SEP 12 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON HURRICANE
IGOR...LOCATED ABOUT 1065 MILES EAST OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD
ISLANDS...AND ON TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWELVE...LOCATED ABOUT 140
MILES SOUTHEAST OF THE SOUTHERNMOST CAPE VERDE ISLANDS.

AIRCRAFT DATA FROM NOAA AND NASA RESEARCH MISSIONS WITHIN THE AREA
OF DISTURBED WEATHER OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA SUGGEST THAT
THE SYSTEM MAY NOT HAVE A WELL-DEFINED CENTER OF CIRCULATION.
HOWEVER...THE DISTURBANCE IS STILL PRODUCING A LARGE AND
DISORGANIZED AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WHICH COULD CAUSE
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IN PORTIONS OF PUERTO RICO...HISPANIOLA...
JAMAICA...AND CUBA DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. THESE RAINS COULD
CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES...ESPECIALLY IN
MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN. THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE...40 PERCENT...THAT
THIS SYSTEM COULD BECOME A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH TOWARD THE
NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

PUBLIC ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWELVE ARE ISSUED UNDER WMO
HEADER WTNT32 KNHC AND UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCPAT2.
FORECAST/ADVISORIES ARE ISSUED UNDER WMO HEADER WTNT22 KNHC AND
UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCMAT2.

$$
FORECASTER BERG

[biggerbyte]

Just two days ago I would have said this system would stay away from the nw Caribbean. Tonight it looks like it will cross over this region, which was a concern for development potential.

[wxman57]

Still looks on track tonight. Strong high pressure over Texas extending out across the Gulf should prevent any northward turn. Should move into the eastern Yucatan by Wednesday evening then continue W-WNW toward Mexico in the vicinity of Tampico. But it may well remain just a disturbance. The good news is that there is still quite a bit of stable, sinking air across the western Caribbean and Gulf. Same sinking air that prevented Gaston from redeveloping. It does look less impressive then it did a few days ago.

Take a look at the current and projected rising/sinking air across the basin. Look what's coming to the Gulf/Caribbean in another week or so (orange is sinking air, green is rising air):

[srainhoutx]

Interesting...

[biggerbyte]

The models are shifting way, way north. A trend that needs to be watched, carefully. Development potential is still up in the air, however. I'm not sold either way on that just yet. I will tell you that relying on projected conditions with respect to tropical systems is dangerous. The only thing certain in weather is what is happening now. The change in projected path of this system is a very good example of that.

We'll see..

[Andrew]

GFS:





GFDL:

[wxman57]

All dynamic models remain in good agreement this morning, taking this system inland near Tampico, MX. The models identified as shifting north overnight were the BAM, LBAR and CLIPPER - not models you'd generally pay much attention to in a possibly changing environment. And even those models are back south now. Still looks like another Mexico hit, though we might get some moisture into Texas from the disturbance.

[srainhoutx]

A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA CONTINUES TO
PRODUCE DISORGANIZED CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS. ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS APPEAR TO BE CONDUCIVE FOR SOME DEVELOPMENT DURING THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS THE TROUGH MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT
AROUND 15 MPH. THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE...40 PERCENT...OF THIS
SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE OVER
PORTIONS OF HISPANIOLA...JAMAICA...CUBA...AND THE CAYMAN ISLANDS
DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE
LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES...ESPECIALLY IN
MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN.

[srainhoutx]

12Z Best track down 1 mb and wind now 25 kts...

AL, 92, 2010091312, , BEST, 0, 162N, 772W, 25, 1006, DB,

[srainhoutx]

Code: Select all

471 
WHXX01 KWBC 131251
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1251 UTC MON SEP 13 2010
 
DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.
 
ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR
 
DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL922010) 20100913 1200 UTC
 
        ...00 HRS...   ...12 HRS...   ...24 HRS. ..   ...36 HRS...
        100913  1200   100914  0000   100914  1200   100915  0000
 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS    16.2N  77.2W   16.8N  79.3W   17.2N  81.6W   17.8N  83.9W
BAMD    16.2N  77.2W   16.8N  79.6W   17.3N  82.0W   17.8N  84.6W
BAMM    16.2N  77.2W   16.8N  79.5W   17.3N  81.9W   17.9N  84.3W
LBAR    16.2N  77.2W   16.8N  80.1W   17.7N  83.0W   18.7N  85.8W
SHIP        25KTS          33KTS          44KTS          56KTS
DSHP        25KTS          33KTS          44KTS          56KTS
 
        ...48 HRS...   ...72 HRS...   ...96 HRS. ..   ..120 HRS...
        100915  1200   100916  1200   100917  1200   100918  1200
 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS    18.4N  86.3W   19.9N  90.4W   21.1N  93.7W   21.4N  97.1W
BAMD    18.2N  87.2W   19.1N  91.8W   19.0N  95.2W   18.3N  98.8W
BAMM    18.5N  86.8W   19.9N  91.1W   20.7N  94.5W   20.6N  97.8W
LBAR    19.8N  88.4W   22.4N  92.6W   24.4N  94.3W   25.8N  95.1W
SHIP        71KTS          88KTS          99KTS         101KTS
DSHP        71KTS          45KTS          55KTS          45KTS
 
         ...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR =  16.2N LONCUR =  77.2W DIRCUR = 275DEG SPDCUR =  16KT
LATM12 =  16.0N LONM12 =  73.8W DIRM12 = 276DEG SPDM12 =  16KT
LATM24 =  15.7N LONM24 =  70.7W
WNDCUR =   25KT RMAXWD =   60NM WNDM12 =   20KT
CENPRS = 1006MB OUTPRS = 1009MB OUTRAD =  150NM SDEPTH =   S
RD34NE =    0NM RD34SE =    0NM RD34SW =    0NM RD34NW =   0NM
 

[srainhoutx]

06Z GFDL...

[biggerbyte]

Good morning, folks. Typical flip-flop in the models this morning. They are all back south again. There is no center to track, and no real good handle on what the ridge will do long term, so we will get this back and forth forecast. In spite of it all, there is still some uncertainty about strength and landfall. IF nothing changes between now and whenever, then Mexico it will go.

[sleetstorm]

I feel for the residents who live in eastern Mexico for they have had two hurricanes to deal with this season, so far. Tampico.

[Scott747]

Good morning, folks. Typical flip-flop in the models this morning. They are all back south again. There is no center to track, and no real good handle on what the ridge will do long term, so we will get this back and forth forecast. In spite of it all, there is still some uncertainty about strength and landfall. IF nothing changes between now and whenever, then Mexico it will go.

There really hasn't been any flip flopping by the models other than a few outliers and a run or two by the BAM suite.

The forecast, or consensus if you will has barely changed at all for days with a track across the YP and into Mexico.