Long range model discussion

[Stratton20]

Cpv17 I think its because models show ridging in the caribbean, that might be what is preventing the troughs from digging too far south, not really sure either, guess we will just have to see how this pattern unfolds

[Cpv17]

The 12z Euro control run goes into take mode around the middle of the month, sheesh! All we will need is a low pressure to be in our neighborhood, preferably a coastal low.

[brazoriatx]

Even on day 1 of 2024 wxman57 is already being a debbie downer. I swear I don't like that guy sometimes

[tireman4]

Even on day 1 of 2024 wxman57 is already being a debbie downer. I swear I don't like that guy sometimes

Well, you know he does that to tweak folks..lol.

[Stratton20]

Hes messing around, he knows the cold is coming lol

[snowman65]

Been pretty quiet the past week concerning to potential pv situation for 2nd half of Jan. Assuming thats still in play?

[Stratton20]

yes its still in play, but the signal has been on and off, not really consistent so thats why its not being hyped up too much lol

[Harp1]

And the GFS isn’t giving us too much hope either.

[Stratton20]

Its just one model run, I say don’t focus on just the GFS, because none of the global models are even in close to agreement right now, the 500 mb height pattern is so different on each one in regards to the trough

[Katdaddy]

Well stated Stratton20. It will be interesting to see if there will be model consistency late this week and next weekend.

[Dls2010r]

It’s cold already!!!! What is everyone complaining about!

[Cpv17]

It’s cold already!!!! What is everyone complaining about!

Because a lot of us on here are extreme weather fans. This weather is a snooze fest right now. Average weather equals boring weather for a weather enthusiast.

[Stratton20]

Lol the 00z CMC tries to bring a lobe of the TPV down to the us/ canada border, with some really cold air knocking on the door step, 00z GFS a but slower, but also seeing some build up of cold air in Canada getting ready to push south

[Stratton20]

Look at our source region! Impressive blocking pattern shaping up, love the reload pattern, continuous dumps of cold air into the us

[Stratton20]

Incredible CMC and GFS runs

[snowman65]

But....how far south will it make it? How cold will it get? How long will it last? Any wintry weather to go with it? Those are the burning questions..

[MontgomeryCoWx]

But....how far south will it make it? How cold will it get? How long will it last? Any wintry weather to go with it? Those are the burning questions..

You can’t answer those until we get within 3-4 days. You know that.

Arctic air doesn’t get held up. It makes it to the coast. Everything else is up in the air until next week.

As I said earlier, model watching is just entertainment. Use common sense…. This upcoming pattern change looks like 1973, which was a long duration event with multiple rounds of cold and precip for 4-5 weeks. Don’t ask me how cold. I don’t have a crystal ball. I’d expect a very active streak through at least mid February once late next week hits.

[MontgomeryCoWx]

I still don’t believe our coldest air hits until the 20th-30th. I think the models may be overdoing it for the 14th-17th timeframe.

[snowman65]

But....how far south will it make it? How cold will it get? How long will it last? Any wintry weather to go with it? Those are the burning questions..

You can’t answer those until we get within 3-4 days. You know that.

Arctic air doesn’t get held up. It makes it to the coast. Everything else is up in the air until next week.

As I said earlier, model watching is just entertainment. Use common sense…. This upcoming pattern change looks like 1973, which was a long duration event with multiple rounds of cold and precip for 4-5 weeks. Don’t ask me how cold. I don’t have a crystal ball. I’d expect a very active streak through at least mid February once late next week hits.

Those were rhetorical questions...

[Stratton20]

Lol the Euro brings down a piece of the polar vortex lobe all the way down into montana, down right ridiculous cold with -50 to -60 below zero readings showing up, bitter arctic air knocking on the doorstep of texas