Long range model discussion

[DoctorMu]

Pow Ponder has an interesting video. https://youtu.be/i-a8JNEfIrg?feature=shared

Around Christmas could be very interesting indeed.

[Stratton20]

First hints of blocking showing up over alaska on this gfs run, bug buildup of cold air in far NW canada, long range, but definitely have to watch it

[Stratton20]

Looks like our bowling ball low maybe be the catalyst to a significant change in the weather pattern long term, 18z GFS shows a much colder regime for texas and most of the US after the 15th

[sambucol]

Excellent. Pow has talked about the 15th and after being colder.

[Harp1]

Looks like our bowling ball low maybe be the catalyst to a significant change in the weather pattern long term, 18z GFS shows a much colder regime for texas and most of the US after the 15th

Let’s hope that trend continues

[DoctorMu]

Excellent. Pow has talked about the 15th and after being colder.

I'm seeing around the 12-13th and beyond for below normal temp. conditions.

[Stratton20]

DoctorMu CMC is colder around the 13th with a cutoff low developing, this weather right now is nice, but definitely would love some even colder conditions lol

[Stratton20]

Interesting setup in the 9-10 day period at least on the CMC with a digging shortwave, precipitation and some cold air ( not cold enough here on this run) to work with, good setup for a winter storm in the state, GFS has a similar system, but a lack of cold air, just interesting to see though

[MontgomeryCoWx]

My mid to long range temps just went down 5-8 degrees from next week onward

[Stratton20]

Need to watch the 14-16th timeframe next week, ensemble guidance is getting pretty interesting across the state

[Ptarmigan]

Need to watch the 14-16th timeframe next week, ensemble guidance is getting pretty interesting across the state

I have seen forecast models suggesting storms next week.

[Stratton20]

Looks like the EPS shows the PNA staying pretty well positive even at and past christmas, not what you want to see, not just for cold but for rain chances

[Thundersleet]

Looks like the EPS shows the PNA staying pretty well positive even at and past christmas, not what you want to see, not just for cold but for rain chances

Dat gum it, dang it!

[Cpv17]

I think next winter could be a doozy. I’m on the fence about this winter. Kinda think it could go either way as of right now. Honestly, just give me above normal rain and near average temps and I’ll gladly take it.

[MontgomeryCoWx]

I think next winter could be a doozy. I’m on the fence about this winter. Kinda think it could go either way as of right now. Honestly, just give me above normal rain and near average temps and I’ll gladly take it.

I said this last winter but I believe our seasons have adjusted back a month.

Our Fall is OND. Our Winter is JFM.

March has been cooler than December a handful of years the past decade, and cooler relative to average much more.

[Cpv17]

I think next winter could be a doozy. I’m on the fence about this winter. Kinda think it could go either way as of right now. Honestly, just give me above normal rain and near average temps and I’ll gladly take it.

I said this last winter but I believe our seasons have adjusted back a month.

Our Fall is OND. Our Winter is JFM.

March has been cooler than December a handful of years the past decade, and cooler relative to average much more.

I’d say winter is actually about where it should be, which is December 21st through March 19th.

[Stratton20]

From what ive been hearing, we may not see any real colder weather return until potentially the 2nd half of january, it is going to be very difficult to break this pacific jet + positive pna pattern anytime soon

[Stratton20]

NWS calling for a low of 39 tommorow morning here, now thats winter! Man if only we could keep the 30’s around forever! Thats my kind of weather!

[Stratton20]

Big pattern change after christmas as the pacific jet finally breaks down and the stubborn positive PNA begins to weaken, should start to see a more active SBJ with one system after the other, each one dragging down cooler air and precipitation, unanimous agreement between all ensemble guidance

[Cpv17]

Big pattern change after christmas as the pacific jet finally breaks down and the stubborn positive PNA begins to weaken, should start to see a more active SBJ with one system after the other, each one dragging down cooler air and precipitation, unanimous agreement between all ensemble guidance

Love the look of the west based -NAO. Hopefully we can get that and a decent -EPO at the same time & then it’s game on!