2024 Hurricane Season Discussion

[Cpv17]

Way far out there but I’m really beginning to be intrigued by next years hurricane season. Looks like we’ll be going into a neutral ENSO with a quiet EPAC and above average precipitation anomalies in the MDR, Caribbean, & Gulf. At least that’s how it looks for now. Definitely subject to change but it does look interesting as of now.

[Ptarmigan]

Usually, post El Nino seasons tend to be active. Think 1998, 2005, 2010, and 2020. Of course, we do not know if it will be El Nino or not come 2024.

[Pas_Bon]

2005

*Triggered*

[mcheer23]

Anyone see the Joe B/ weatherbell 2024 prediction? 25-30 storms

[Cpv17]

Anyone see the Joe B/ weatherbell 2024 prediction? 25-30 storms

No I didn’t see that…

[Cpv17]

Ok, I found it. Here’s the tweet:

https://twitter.com/bigjoebastardi/stat ... 4309624228

I’m expecting a busy season too. I was thinking more like 20-25 though.

[Ptarmigan]

Post El Nino seasons are usually active.

[Cpv17]

As of right now it looks like we’ll continue the above average SST’s for next years hurricane season. Also, the El Niño should start to decay around springtime and we could even start seeing signs of a weak La Niña coming on by late spring, into the summer.

[Cpv17]

https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status ... 5575037350

[Cpv17]

https://twitter.com/philklotzbach/statu ... 1253212456

[Cpv17]

https://x.com/bigjoebastardi/status/174 ... _m1NXPw4Cg

[Cpv17]

New run of the NMME came out:





Very favorable look.

[869MB]

https://x.com/BenNollWeather/status/17 ... 15113?s=20

[Cpv17]

New CanSIPS forecast is out:

July




August

[Pas_Bon]

I’ve got a bad, sinking feeling regarding SETX this hurricane season. Nothing specific….just a bad feeling.
This is not based on any data whatsoever other than what has already been presented.

[Cpv17]

I’ve got a bad, sinking feeling regarding SETX this hurricane season. Nothing specific….just a bad feeling.
This is not based on any data whatsoever other than what has already been presented.

I’m thinking August is the month we need to watch the most as of right now.

[Cpv17]

Wider views of the NMME and CanSIPS:

NMME for July:



August:



CanSIPS for July:



August:



As you can see, not really much of a difference between the two models. Pretty good agreement.

[mcheer23]

FWIW

"We expect that the Gulf Coast, especially the Texas Coast, will be at a higher risk for direct impacts from a tropical system this year."
Paul Pastelok, AccuWeather Long-Range Expert

[sambucol]

FWIW

"We expect that the Gulf Coast, especially the Texas Coast, will be at a higher risk for direct impacts from a tropical system this year."
Paul Pastelok, AccuWeather Long-Range Expert

I hope that doesn’t happpen. I’m extremely concerned about us getting hit this year in the Galveston area.

[Stratton20]

Sambucol cant blame you there, we have escaped ao many close calls from storms like Laura, Delta etc, we may not be as lucly this year, hopefully we dont get hit