November 2023

[dp6]

Dang, of all the days for my triumphant return to Houston, this has to spin up.

Coming in from DFW, instead of I-45 think we'll head to Waco or Temple then scoot in behind the mess as it clears eastward.

Hoping nothing damaging develops for you guys today.

[jasons2k]

[djmike]

Not letting my guard down, but so far it just seems like our typical drizzle misty kind of day. Not asking for severe weather, but we do need a gully washer if any difference is going to be made in this drought. Latest HRRR is now showing strongest storms staying offshore. Again, not letting my guard down, but seems like the usual forecasting of heavy downpours till its go time and ends up being a misty dreary day every time.

[Cpv17]

Pretty strong little cell near El Campo right now.
(Using 1Weather App)

Yeah, it’s passing right over my house (10 miles north of EC).

[Cpv17]

My job is crazy. They sent me out on a run from Bay City (where I work) to go to Deer Park, Baytown, Crosby, and then back to Bay City. My old manager would never send me out on any runs when there was heavy rain and severe weather in the forecast but she got fired back in April.

[Stratton20]

jasons2k I never said the threat wasn’t gone, I said the cloud cover and light rain might help add some stability to the atmosphere, im not downplaying anything, im aware of the threat and the dynamics that are there, just hoping we can get things to not go out of hand, it is a serious setup, no doubt about it, im just hoping the forecast doesnt pan out, but hope is a naive thing sometimes

[tireman4]

Activity is starting to pick up south of Houston.

[tireman4]

Pat Cavlin
@pcavlin
·
3m
#BREAKING -

The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has DOWNGRADED the area from a level 3 to level 2 risk. As mentioned in previous discussions... the potential for severe weather today is VERY conditional.

Still a chance for severe storms but lower than initially thought

[tireman4]

Activity is picking up...

A special weather statement has been issued for El Campo TX, Ganado TX and Louise TX until 9:15 AM CST

[tireman4]

The storm just mentioned looks interesting....

[jasons2k]

Some breaks are forming in the clouds out over the Gulf. Agreed the placement has shifted south but the threat is still there.

Edit: I think the folks near Galveston Bay need to keep a very close watch as we move into the afternoon. If I were Reed Timmer I’d be having lunch in Angleton.

[don]

SPC has downgraded the area to a slight risk. Looks like that disturbance is taking a more southerly route than models were showing. Don't let your guard down yet though.

[tireman4]

I wish I could post images...but..alluding to what Jason pointed out....

This may be the first play of the day. Significant lightning jump and organization happening with this cell along coastal brazoria county

[tireman4]

Pat Cavlin
@pcavlin
·
1h
UPDATED TIMING -

While the potential for severe weather has lowered a bit - the timing and thinking remains the same

Peak timing is from now through mid-afternoon
Still a very conditional threat
Isolated tornadoes remain the primary concern

@KHOU
#khou11 #Houston

[jasons2k]

Rotation noted in Brazoria cell. Off we go…

[jasons2k]

I wish I could post images...but..alluding to what Jason pointed out....

This may be the first play of the day. Significant lightning jump and organization happening with this cell along coastal brazoria county

I posted a velocity shot on S2K. Time to start paying attention

[tireman4]

TORNADO WATCH POSSIBLE -

The SPC has highlighted areas along and south of Houston for the potential of a tornado watch later this afternoon

Storms have started to develop across these areas and if trends continue a watch may be needed

@KHOU
#khou11 #Houston #TXwx

[jasons2k]

https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md2290.html

[djmike]

Something tells me we are going to be disappointed with rainfall totals today except for Galveston. Maybe the euro was right all along…

[don]

Mesoscale Discussion 2290
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1159 AM CST Thu Nov 30 2023

Areas affected...Southeast TX

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible

Valid 301759Z - 302000Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...The tornado threat may gradually increase with time
through the day. Eventual watch issuance is possible, though timing
is uncertain.

DISCUSSION...Convection is gradually increasing across parts of
southeast TX within a low-level warm-advection regime, with recent
satellite and radar trends indicating an increase in storm intensity
southwest of Galveston Bay. Mid/upper 60s F dewpoints are gradually
streaming northward across the region, though widespread cloudiness
and increasing precipitation will continue to limit heating and
destabilization through the afternoon.

The timing and extent of surface-based supercell development this
afternoon remain uncertain, and may continue to be limited by weak
low-level lapse rates and buoyancy. However, it remains possible
that consolidation of the stronger ongoing elevated convection may
result in transient supercell development, and there is also some
potential for a supercell or two to develop offshore and move inland
later this afternoon. Favorable low-level and deep-layer shear (as
noted on the TIAH/THOU VWPs) will support a conditional tornado risk
if any mature supercells can evolve with time. Tornado watch
issuance is possible sometime this afternoon, if observational
trends begin to support imminent supercell potential.