TD Karl Inland West of Veracruz, MX

[sambucol]

It looks pretty good this morning. The best organized that I've seen since it was named an invest.

[Scott747]

0z Euro showed almost the same solution as the 12z. Across the lower YP and into the southern BOC. As per now that's the track I'm leaning towards. Full onslaught of data/missions over the next few days will begin to clear things up as it enters the W Caribbean.

FWIW - Based on some heads up from my outside source I let my chase partner (Josh) know on Thursday to start taking a look at flights and such to the Yucatan, just in case. As usual it's hard to really predict RI or significant deepening over a few days. But if there is one place in the basin that you need to be on your toes, this will be it if it does indeed track across the NW Caribbean and has a solid core already developed.


Subject: 92l
From: "Scott **********" <scottyb@*********>
Date: Thu, September 9, 2010 10:16 am
To: "Josh ***********" <Josh@*****************>

** is onboard with a possible significant system in the NW Caribbean.
Would be one that is intensifying quickly on approach instead of something
like Dean/Felix that you had time to track.

Might be time to start checking flights and such even though its not
developed yet.

[srainhoutx]

12Z guidance...

Code: Select all

CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1310 UTC SAT SEP 11 2010
 
DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.
 
ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR
 
DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL922010) 20100911 1200 UTC
 
        ...00 HRS...   ...12 HRS...   ...24 HRS. ..   ...36 HRS...
        100911  1200   100912  0000   100912  1200   100913  0000
 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS    14.0N  63.6W   14.8N  65.4W   15.5N  67.4W   16.2N  69.5W
BAMD    14.0N  63.6W   14.7N  65.9W   15.3N  68.2W   15.8N  70.6W
BAMM    14.0N  63.6W   14.8N  65.8W   15.5N  68.1W   16.2N  70.4W
LBAR    14.0N  63.6W   15.0N  65.6W   16.0N  67.8W   16.9N  69.9W
SHIP        25KTS          30KTS          39KTS          49KTS
DSHP        25KTS          30KTS          39KTS          49KTS
 
        ...48 HRS...   ...72 HRS...   ...96 HRS. ..   ..120 HRS...
        100913  1200   100914  1200   100915  1200   100916  1200
 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS    16.7N  71.6W   17.7N  76.0W   18.6N  81.1W   19.5N  86.1W
BAMD    16.4N  72.9W   17.5N  77.6W   18.7N  83.3W   20.0N  88.7W
BAMM    16.8N  72.7W   18.0N  77.6W   19.2N  83.2W   20.5N  88.6W
LBAR    17.9N  71.9W   20.0N  75.4W   22.3N  78.3W   23.8N  79.6W
SHIP        62KTS          79KTS          91KTS         107KTS
DSHP        62KTS          63KTS          80KTS          60KTS
 
         ...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR =  14.0N LONCUR =  63.6W DIRCUR = 285DEG SPDCUR =  10KT
LATM12 =  13.4N LONM12 =  61.6W DIRM12 = 284DEG SPDM12 =  11KT
LATM24 =  12.9N LONM24 =  60.0W
WNDCUR =   25KT RMAXWD =   60NM WNDM12 =   25KT
CENPRS = 1009MB OUTPRS = 1011MB OUTRAD =  150NM SDEPTH =   S
RD34NE =    0NM RD34SE =    0NM RD34SW =    0NM RD34NW =   0NM
 

[srainhoutx]

Anticyclonic flow becoming well established now. Certainly looks better structurally aloft as the moning has worn on...

[ticka1]

Folks this one is going to Mexico. Nevertheless we can watch it but its my gut feeling. We got a few more weeks and the SE Texas area chances for landfalling canes get lesser and lesser.

[srainhoutx]

Look at all the missions scheduled...

000
NOUS42 KNHC 111530
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1130 AM EDT SAT 11 SEPTEMBER 2010
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 12/1100Z TO 13/1100Z SEPTEMBER 2010
TCPOD NUMBER.....10-103

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. SUSPECT AREA (CENTRAL CARIBBEAN)
FLIGHT ONE -- TEAL 70
A. 12/1800Z
B. AFXXX 01EEA INVEST
C. 12/1145Z
D. 15.5N 70.0W
E. 12/1700Z TO 12/2100Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

FLIGHT TWO -- TEAL 71
A. 13/0600,1200Z
B. AFXXX 0212A CYCLONE
C. 13/0400Z
D. 16.2N 74.4W
E. 13/0500Z TO 13/1200Z
F. SFC TO 15,000 FT

2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK: CONTINUE 6-HRLY FIXES IF
SYSTEM DEVELOPS.
3. REMARKS: SEVERAL RESEARCH FLIGHTS ARE PLANNED
FOR THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SUSPECT AREA.
A. THE NSF/NCAR G-V WILL FLY A 7 HR MISSION BETWEEN
41,000 AND 43,000 FT WITH TAKEOFF AT 12/1100Z.
B. THE NASA GLOBAL HAWK WILL FLY A 24 HR MISSION
ABOVE 58,000 FT WITH TAKEOFF AT 12/1130Z.
C. THE NOAA G-IV WILL FLY AN 8 HR MISSION BETWEEN
41,000 AND 45,000 FT WITH TAKEOFF AT 12/1730Z.
D. THE NASA DC-8 WILL FLY AN 8 HR MISSION BETWEEN
35,000 AND 39,000 FT WITH TAKEOFF AT 12/1800Z.
E. NOAA 43 AND 42 P-3 AIRCRAFT WILL BEGIN A SERIES
OF MISSIONS BETWEEN 7,000 AND 12,000 FT WITH
TAKEOFFS AT 12/2000Z AND 13/0800Z...RESPECTIVELY.

[biggerbyte]

So much can change over the coming days. As it stands right now, if nothing does change, and if this rides more south, the massive ridge to its north will take it right into Mexico. However, I'm seeing some indications of it already taking a more northerly turn, which if true, and we can verify later today, the forecasted path will need to be altered. Also, as a reminder to some, today's configuration with this ridge, may not be tomorrows. As of today, this would stay east or south.

[Andrew]

Wow that was some good sleep after a long week. I expect next week to be even longer. 92L looks great and one of the biggest improvements I see with this storm is that the convection is not outflow dependent. Should allow for steady development but due to its size, it should be slow. As for the track, I warn people to not put too much stock into the models right now. Until we get a good LLC the models always have trouble predicting where a storm is going to go. I hope it does go to a sparsely populated part of Mexico, but I think it is way too early to know where it is going. As of now it looks like this storm is going to be a Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico threat. Any guess after that is just that, a guess.

[sambucol]

As for the track, I warn people to not put too much stock into the models right now. Until we get a good LLC the models always have trouble predicting where a storm is going to go. I hope it does go to a sparsely populated part of Mexico, but I think it is way too early to know where it is going. As of now it looks like this storm is going to be a Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico threat. Any guess after that is just that, a guess.

Is there a possibility the ridge that is forecast to protect Texas from 92L will not happen? I guess I'm a little wary about this one because we're at the 2 year anniversary of Ike. If I remember correctly, there was a cold front that was thought to get here in time to protect us from Ike heading our way. I guess that's what I'm thinking here with this one. Thanks.

[Andrew]

As for the track, I warn people to not put too much stock into the models right now. Until we get a good LLC the models always have trouble predicting where a storm is going to go. I hope it does go to a sparsely populated part of Mexico, but I think it is way too early to know where it is going. As of now it looks like this storm is going to be a Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico threat. Any guess after that is just that, a guess.

Is there a possibility the ridge that is forecast to protect Texas from 92L will not happen? I guess I'm a little wary about this one because we're at the 2 year anniversary of Ike. If I remember correctly, there was a cold front that was thought to get here in time to protect us from Ike heading our way. I guess that's what I'm thinking here with this one. Thanks.

I think the ridge will be there, it is just how strong the ridge will be. The reason why a lot of models show a far south and west hit, is because they keep 92L really weak. Any strengthening could easily push this storm farther north as a weakness appears in the ridge. As I said before, this storm is many days out and we already have enough problems trying to predict where a storm will go 3 days out so I think it is just best to watch. Remember Hermine? The NHC had it going NW once inland, but it keep on going farther and farther North putting it east of the forecast point. So just keep up with 92L and probably by Monday/Tuesday we should have a much better idea of what this storm is going to do.

[srainhoutx]

Increase in stronger wording in 2 PM TWO...

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE CHANGED LITTLE IN ASSOCIATION WITH A
BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA.
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT...AND A
TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM AS THE SYSTEM MOVES WESTWARD INTO
THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE...60
PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS. REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
IS POSSIBLE IN THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS...PUERTO RICO...THE
VIRGIN ISLANDS...AND HISPANIOLA DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. THESE
RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES...
ESPECIALLY IN MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN.

[perk]

Folks this one is going to Mexico. Nevertheless we can watch it but its my gut feeling. We got a few more weeks and the SE Texas area chances for landfalling canes get lesser and lesser.

Are you sure about that,because i'm not sold on the fact that the high forecasted will in fact be there.

[perk]

ED ten days out are you telling me you're completely sold on the Euro and GFS TRACK.

[Andrew]

ED ten days out are you telling me you're completely sold on the Euro and GFS TRACK.

Remember that the gfs doesn't develop it. Also the Euro keeps it fairly weak and on the western track. If this storm stays weak this looks plausible, but if it really intensifies it is going to seek out any weaknesses and that could send it farther north. More model watching.

[wxman57]

That's a healthy ridge sitting right over Texas all week. Would be hard for a storm to turn up this way. This one looks like it may track south of Tampico into Mexico. With virtually no model support now, though, and sinking air across the Caribbean presently, I'm becoming a little doubtful that it will even develop. We saw what happened to Gaston right in front of 92L.

[Katdaddy]

I agree with Ticka and WXman57. This will be BOC and MX storm with the ridge this week. We should thankful of the ridge for its protection. I for one do not want another IKE, Alicia, Carla, 1915, 1900, 1943, 1949, etc. The ridge saved the Upper Texas Coast from Gilbert, Allen, and Anita.

[srainhoutx]

Although the convection is lacking now, there definitely is some mid level spin going on. Let's see what the next day or two brings before writing this one off as well.

[Katdaddy]

Very true srainhoutx. Its never over until tropical development potential is on land. We are near the peak of the season and should be prepared....forecasts/patterns can change.

[srainhoutx]

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DECREASED IN ASSOCIATION WITH A
BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED OVER THE EAST-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN
SEA. HOWEVER...ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR CONDUCIVE FOR
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM...AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM
DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD INTO THE
CENTRAL AND WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE...60
PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS. REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
IS POSSIBLE IN THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS...PUERTO RICO...THE
VIRGIN ISLANDS...AND HISPANIOLA DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. THESE
RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD
SLIDES...ESPECIALLY IN MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN.

[srainhoutx]

18Z GFDL...