November 2023

[DoctorMu]

The Mesos are less enthusiastic on QPF. We'll see.

[don]

WPC qpf forecast.

[Cromagnum]

Showers already popping up on radar.

[tireman4]

000
FXUS64 KHGX 091537
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
937 AM CST Thu Nov 9 2023

...New UPDATE...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 931 AM CST Thu Nov 9 2023

Tricky forecast for max Temps today with so much dependent on
cold front timing. Short term guidance continues to hint at a
slightly slower arrival for the front this afternoon in the Brazos
valley so will bump highs just a bit ahead of the front.
Otherwise, have kept much of the forecast the same regarding rain
chances and overall timing of the front across the rest of
southeast TX. Still looks like a last grasp at `late summer`
today, before stark changes arrive tonight and linger through the
weekend. Expect a wet night and a cloudy/wet day tomorrow with
highs Friday a good 20 degrees cooler.

Evans

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Friday Night)
Issued at 340 AM CST Thu Nov 9 2023

Today will start out humid and unseasonably warm like yesterday as
WAA strengthens ahead of an approaching cold front. Cloud cover will
help keep temperatures from rising as high as the past few days, but
can still expect highs in the upper 70s north of Conroe and then low
80s for the rest of the area. Scattered showers will begin to pop up
in the late morning as well helping to limit daytime heating. The
aforementioned front will pass through the region from NW to SE
through the area starting this afternoon reaching the BCS area in
the afternoon, Houston Metro around by the evening, and then the
coast overnight. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms will
begin to pop up along the Brazos River (all the way to the coast)
starting as early as the mid morning, and then expand across the
area in the late afternoon/evening with the FROPA. This
precipitation will continue through the night into Friday morning.
By Friday afternoon the majority of the precipitation will have
ended for the area, but isolated showers may persist along the shore
through Friday night as the cold front meanders just off the coast.
Rainfall totals through midnight Friday night will be generally 1 to
2", but with isolated higher amounts to 3-4" possible along the
coast. A passing upper level low will reinvigorate precipitation
across the area by late Friday night into Saturday morning, which
will be the story through the weekend (but more on that in the Long
Term).

Overnight temperatures tonight will be cooler compared to the past
few days thanks to the cold front`s passage. Temperatures will dip
down into the mid to upper 50s north and west of the Houston Metro,
and then in the low to mid 60s in the Metro and along the coast.
Friday will be much cooler, about 20 degrees cooler, than today with
highs reaching the low 60s across the north and upper 60s along the
coast. Friday night`s temperatures will be in the low to mid 50s for
much of the region.

Fowler

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through Wednesday)
Issued at 340 AM CST Thu Nov 9 2023

Not a lot of changes with the long term part of the forecast with the
cool cloudy wet pattern in place over the weekend...and perhaps pers-
isting into the first half of next week.

With the cold front stalled just off the Texas coast, look for the de-
velopment of a coastal low/trough of low pressure at/near the Lower TX
coast on Sat which is then expected to linger in this general area for
the weekend. This system, along with a series of embedded disturbances
aloft moving in from the W/SW, will help keep elevated rain chances in
place across the FA on Sat/Sun...with the highest POPs over our south-
ern counties and marine waters (closer to the front/coastal trough).

By Mon, we should start seeing the coastal trough begin its track E/NE
out of the region. However, as this lower level feature begins to move
out, the mid/upper low that has been out west is progged to move into/
across the state on Mon and Tue. While this should mean lower POPs for
our northern counties, elevated POPs are likely to continue across our
southern/coastal regions during this time frame. Rain chances will end
by Wed with the mid/upper trough finally east of SE TX.

The persistent rain chances/clouds will help keep cool temperatures in
place through the weekend and into next week...with highs generally in
the 60s and lows in the 50s. 41

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 340 AM CST Thu Nov 9 2023

Like yesterday morning, there will likely be a period of MVFR
conditions due to CIGs around 1500ft for the northern terminals (CLL,
UTS, CXO, and maybe IAH). These conditions will improve to VFR by
the mid morning with breezy southerly flow returning across the area.
But, these conditions will not last long as a cold front will be
moving through the area later today bringing scattered showers, a
northerly wind shift, and low clouds. The front is expected to move
through CLL/UTS around 19-21z, CXO around 00-2z, IAH around 2-5z,
HOU/SGR/LBX around 4-6z, and then GLS around 7-10z. The majority of
the precipitation with this FROPA will be just showers, but cannot
out-rule an isolated thunderstorms developing either. CIGs behind the
front will drop to around 1500-2500ft shortly after its passage, but
then drop to around 500-700ft an hour or two later. These low clouds
will persist through Friday morning with some improvements to MVFR
conditions possible by Friday afternoon. There will be a lull in the
shower activity Friday afternoon and evening, but expect continued
unsettled weather through the weekend.

Fowler

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 340 AM CST Thu Nov 9 2023

Light to moderate onshore winds will continue through this afternoon
with running from 2 to 4 feet. A cold front remains on track to move
across SE TX tonight...then pushing off the coast by Fri morning. As
this line approaches the coast, look for widespread showers to devel-
op across the region ahead of as well as in the wake of the front. A
shift to stronger gusty offshore winds and increasing seas are expec-
ted behind the front on Fri. However, heading into the weekend, these
strong winds, elevated seas and widespread unsettled weather are like-
ly to persist as this cold front stalls (just offshore) and a coastal
trough of low pressure develops at/around the Lower TX coast. Caution
and/or Advisory flags are going to be needed behind the front on into
the upcoming weekend. 41

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 78 56 60 53 / 80 90 40 40
Houston (IAH) 82 62 65 55 / 30 80 60 70
Galveston (GLS) 78 66 70 60 / 10 60 70 80

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

[don]

12Z GFS caved towards the EURO...

[Stormlover2020]

Flood about to happen

[djmike]

Feast or Famine. Good Ol Southeast Texas.

[don]

The canadian has also caved.Looks like the Gulf low on Monday may be pretty potent.EDIT: 12Z EURO still onboard also.

[sambucol]

So, is SETX going to get flooding rain?

[Stratton20]

all that rain out west is weakening as it approaches me, bust potential is growing here

[don]

Rain moving in...

[DoctorMu]

all that rain out west is weakening as it approaches me, bust potential is growing here

Run of the mill light rain in CLL. It should be soaking over time. The front is trailing behind.

I need a break to put down fungicide. lol

[Cromagnum]

Can we get cooler/colder weather to stick around more than a couple of days? I'm tired of this muggy pea soup garbage we always have.

[don]

That's the way its always been around here though.Prolonged cold doesn't happen often here.Its the consequences of living near the Gulf.There's always going to be a battle here between the dry cooler air from the north,and the warm moist air from the Gulf.And most of the time the Gulf will win out.That's why our climate is considered humid subtropical here.That's also why its hard to get snow here.The plus side of being near the Gulf is that it provides more opportunities for rain than other parts of the state.

[Cromagnum]

That's the way its always been around here though.Prolonged cold doesn't happen often here.Its the consequences of living near the Gulf.There's always going to be a battle here between the dry cooler air from the north,and the warm moist air from the Gulf.And most of the time the Gulf will win out.That's why our climate is considered humid subtropical here.That's also why its hard to get snow here.The plus side of being near the Gulf is that it provides more opportunities for rain than other parts of the state.

Except for many of the last few summers where we don't get anything but heat.

[don]

That's the way its always been around here though.Prolonged cold doesn't happen often here.Its the consequences of living near the Gulf.There's always going to be a battle here between the dry cooler air from the north,and the warm moist air from the Gulf.And most of the time the Gulf will win out.That's why our climate is considered humid subtropical here.That's also why its hard to get snow here.The plus side of being near the Gulf is that it provides more opportunities for rain than other parts of the state.

Except for many of the last few summers where we don't get anything but heat.

Yep, La Nina sucks.It does provide more opportunists for "extreme" cold during the winter though.But the droughts though...☹

[don]

At 0.56" so far.The Jersey Village area has already picked up 2.5" today.

[Cpv17]

Boy, I just looked but the 18z NAM 3km model looks very interesting but it’s the only model showing that solution.

[sambucol]

What does it show?

[Cpv17]

I’ve picked up 1.75” today! Awesome