October 2023

[Pas_Bon]

I hope you get diarrhea.

All is not well in the Faaammm-ileeeee at LSU this Sunday

Tigahs left their defense back in Red Stick.

Wrong....LSU left their defense in 1947.... prior to the forward pass being invented.

[Pas_Bon]

Way to go Astros and Texans today! Aggies and Longhorns won too. Great sports weekend for me!

I hope you get diarrhea.

All is not well in the Faaammm-ileeeee at LSU this Sunday

thanks for the reminder.....I want my mommy now.

[MontgomeryCoWx]

All is not well in the Faaammm-ileeeee at LSU this Sunday

Tigahs left their defense back in Red Stick.

Wrong....LSU left their defense in 1947.... prior to the forward pass being invented.

Daniel’s and Nabors is every bit as good as Burrow and Jefferson. It’s a shame for Tiger fans it’s getting squandered by the D.

[tireman4]

And back to weather....

000
FXUS64 KHGX 020934
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
434 AM CDT Mon Oct 2 2023

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Tuesday Night)
Issued at 312 AM CDT Mon Oct 2 2023

Today looks to be very similar to the weekend as the mid/upper ridge
lingers over the state and the deeper moisture continues to focus on
the Middle TX coast. Hot and humid conditions to persist for much of
the CWA...with the best rain chances staying in/around the Matagorda
Bay and the nearshore waters. Will continue to go with daytime highs
a category or two above NBM numbers for today...keeping highs in the
mid to upper 90s for most areas...into upper 80s to around 90 at the
coast.

Some changes will be possible by early tomorrow morning as the ridge
aloft begins to break down. This will then allow the deeper moisture
(moving into the Middle TX coast) to start spreading north/northeast
into the rest of the CWA through the day on Tues and into Tues night.
This increasing activity (and associated cloud cover) should support
slightly lower high temperatures tomorrow (lower to mid 90s) as well
as slightly warmer lows tomorrow night (mid to upper 70s). 41

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through Sunday)
Issued at 312 AM CDT Mon Oct 2 2023

Unsettled weather returns to the region this week with the passage
of a strong cold front, followed by a taste of fall with drier and
cooler conditions for the weekend.

A deep upper-level trough will move across the Rockies early this
week. The associated sfc low and frontal boundary will develop over
the Panhandles by Wednesday, before moving east-southeast across TX
during the day. While this scenario develops, Southeast TX will be
positioned in the warm sector with persistent south to southeasterly
flow, increasing humidity and instability. With that being said,
scattered rain and storms can be expected throughout the day.

Attention then turns into Thursday and Friday with the arrival of
the cold front. Latest global models are in better agreement with
timing of the FROPA, though it differs a bit on strength/QPF. Expect
rain and storm chances to increase ahead of the boundary. The front
should gradually push over the region by Thursday afternoon/evening.
Finally moving offshore Thursday night into early Friday. While the
severe weather threat is non-zero for SE TX, the best environment
for any strong storms look to remain west of our region. Storms may
become strong at times, leading to brief heavy downpours. The risk of
excessive rainfall is highlighted on the Day 4 Outlook from WPC that
places our region under a Marginal and Slight risks. Post frontal
showers will be possible on Friday, therefore precipitation should
gradually taper off from northwest to southeast by late Friday. In
the wake of the front, concerns shift to the coastal waters as
moderate to strong winds and elevated seas develop over the weekend.
More details in the Marine section.

Drier and cooler air will gradually filter in by Friday night.
Confidence in fall-like temperatures across SE TX for the weekend
continues to increase. Look for highs mainly from the low to mid
80s and low temperatures mainly in the 60s. At this time, the
bulk of the cooler air is progged to arrive with a reinforcing cold
front on Saturday as 850mb temperatures drop into the 12 to 15 degC
range. This will suggest highs from the upper 70s to low 80s and
overnight lows mainly in the 50s inland and in the 60s along the
coast. Coolest low temps possible early Sunday morning and early
Monday.

JM

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 312 AM CDT Mon Oct 2 2023

Will likely maintain the persistence forecast from the last few days
for today. Generally VFR with a very brief period of low clouds/vis-
ibility around sunrise. Best POPs to be just SW of most of our sites
with only VCSH at LBX/GLS. East winds 10kts this morning to increase
once again during the late morning/early afternoon hours (10-15kts)
with gusts near 25kts. 41

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 312 AM CDT Mon Oct 2 2023

Scattered showers with isolated thunderstorms are expected to
continue today and Tuesday with coverage becoming more widespread
after Wednesday in advance of a strong cold front. A persistent
fetch of moderate easterly winds will continue to bring winds
generally from 15 to 20 knots and elevated seas. Winds may reach
advisory levels at times, especially at night. The cold front is
expected to move off the coast Thursday night into early Friday. Post
frontal conditions of moderate to strong north to northeast winds
can be expected during the weekend. Small Craft Advisories will
likely be needed.

Above normal tide levels can also be expected over the next several
days. P-ETSS guidance continues to show tide levels above threshold
across our region, suggesting the potential for minor coastal
flooding during time of high tide at least through Wednesday.

JM

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 98 69 96 75 / 0 0 40 20
Houston (IAH) 96 73 93 76 / 0 0 40 30
Galveston (GLS) 90 80 88 80 / 10 30 70 60

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...Small Craft Should Exercise Caution through this afternoon for
GMZ350-355-370-375.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...41
LONG TERM....JM
AVIATION...41
MARINE...JM

[DoctorMu]

Tigahs left their defense back in Red Stick.

Wrong....LSU left their defense in 1947.... prior to the forward pass being invented.

Daniel’s and Nabors is every bit as good as Burrow and Jefferson. It’s a shame for Tiger fans it’s getting squandered by the D.

Daniels dropped one in the bucket for a TD that would be extraordinary on any given Sunday.

[Stratton20]

Active pattern showing in the models, sub tropical jet is active, ridging is very weak and transient , courtesy of El nino those umbrellas are going to be needed alot this month

[Cpv17]

Active pattern showing in the models, sub tropical jet is active, ridging is very weak and transient , courtesy of El nino those umbrellas are going to be needed alot this month

Love it!! Let us all get 5-10” this month!

[Stratton20]

Cpv17 yep! Also seems ensembles show a weak + PNA setting up with the ridge now building over the western and northern US, should allow for disturbances to ride underneath the ridge with the sub tropical jet, even seeing the potential for a recurve oacific system bringing rain to texas in ~10 days or so

[txbear]

One thing is true about Texas weather. Once it is stuck in a pattern, it is hard to break out. 99°F today. Allegedly normal temperatures in a week.

FROPA + EPAC moisture FTW? Could be - but I'll believe it when I see it.

This, anecdotally and (to my amateur mind) reality through history, seems to be the norm regarding patterns in this state. Why is that?

I know many have expressed a similar thought…what is it about Texas (others could be included) that seems to amplify the inability to get free of patterns (particularly the hot and dry ones).

[djmike]

Cool front seems to be coming in a bit stronger. Originally lowest we got in the triangle was 60. Now forecasting 55 for the lowest low. Bring it. Im so ready!

[Cpv17]

Looks like a pretty good chance of rain tomorrow south of I-10.

[Cromagnum]

Looks like a pretty good chance of rain tomorrow south of I-10.

Good. Besides needing a lot of rain anyways, this will help setup all the dirt I spread around.

[MontgomeryCoWx]

I have started my EAT **** SUMMER chant in CoCo.

Can’t wait!

[srainhoutx]

First frost of the Fall Season is showing up all the Big 3 this weekend into early next week in the Smoky Mountains. Leaves are now turning quickly above 4000 ft and working the way down into the Valley in the next week or so. Enjoy your rain and cooler weather folks. The worst of the heat is over for the year!

[DoctorMu]

We need more chants for Rain, FROPA, etc.

I think the front will overperform (70s and 50s) and then rebound by the end of next week. But we're talking mid-80s instead of near the century mark. Yesterday was 99°F here, 98°F today. But at least the DP is low today.

[DoctorMu]

First frost of the Fall Season is showing up all the Big 3 this weekend into early next week in the Smoky Mountains. Leaves are now turning quickly above 4000 ft and working the way down into the Valley in the next week or so. Enjoy your rain and cooler weather folks. The worst of the heat is over for the year!

haha Rub it in.

At least tomorrow *could* be our last really hot day. Fingers crossed.

[MontgomeryCoWx]

First frost of the Fall Season is showing up all the Big 3 this weekend into early next week in the Smoky Mountains. Leaves are now turning quickly above 4000 ft and working the way down into the Valley in the next week or so. Enjoy your rain and cooler weather folks. The worst of the heat is over for the year!

Headed your way next week for A&M vs UT

[djmike]

Local mets now forecasting a low of 53 in Beaumont. Yeah It will be stronger. Originally lows were 61. Bring it. So ready for this. The first actual real front is so exciting. Lol

[srainhoutx]

First frost of the Fall Season is showing up all the Big 3 this weekend into early next week in the Smoky Mountains. Leaves are now turning quickly above 4000 ft and working the way down into the Valley in the next week or so. Enjoy your rain and cooler weather folks. The worst of the heat is over for the year!

Headed your way next week for A&M vs UT

You'll be about 90 miles away from Maggie Valley. Enjoy your trip to Knoxville and the pleasant fall weather!

[Ptarmigan]

Bring on the cool weather.