September 2023

[Cromagnum]

Funnel cloud tried to get going right next to me just as I was pulling in my driveway right before the storm.

[user:null]

You have GOT to be kidding me!

The fortunate thing is that the League City region cashed in BIG TIME with the previous stormy event during the Sept 10-16th week: the HGX station (NWSO located in Dickinson) has almost 5 inches total for the month, which is more than many places here so far this month.

[user:null]

According to Storm2k, the -PDO is still quite strong. They think that is the reason why this relatively dry pattern is continuing despite the El Nino.

[DoctorMu]

The long-term forecasts are in agreement for more of the same. Low to mid 90s. Not much chance of rain or even 80s in CLL until the 9th or 10th of Oct.

Too dry and hot for brown patch? (probably not).

[DoctorMu]

According to Storm2k, the -PDO is still quite strong. They think that is the reason why this relatively dry pattern is continuing despite the El Nino.

Yep - we're screwed up here.

[Stratton20]

The PDO will weaken, starting mid october wet and cooler thab normal will be the theme for the remainder of this year and all of winter 2024

[Cromagnum]

I am so tired of this heat and humidity. Looks like the seabreeze is trying though.

[tireman4]

Cell right over us in Humble. Nice downpour.

[Cpv17]

Cell right over us in Humble. Nice downpour.

Pretty sure that’s a severe warned storm.

[tireman4]

Cell right over us in Humble. Nice downpour.

Pretty sure that’s a severe warned storm.

It was intense, that is for sure. Some downburst winds, but nothing too drastic. Frequent lightning too.

[tireman4]

000
FXUS64 KHGX 271134
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
634 AM CDT Wed Sep 27 2023

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Thursday Night)
Issued at 347 AM CDT Wed Sep 27 2023

A few weak vort maxes/shortwaves embedded in the northwest flow
aloft will continue to move over the region, allowing for a few
showers and storms over the coastal waters early this morning. Some
of these showers may reach the coastline near/after daybreak.

Overall, surface high pressure centered to our northwest will
continue to dominate the weather through the short term period. As
the high moves to the east into the Lower MS Valley today, light
easterly to southeasterly winds should prevail. Despite a dry
airmass prevailing at mid to upper levels, decent low-level moisture
remains, particularly for areas south of I-10. Low-level moisture
combined with surface convergence provided by a lingering/quasi-
stationary boundary extending along the coast will spark showers and
storms later this afternoon/early evening. Will continue with a
chance of showers and storms (15 to 40 percent). The best rain/storm
chances will be south of I-10. Showers/storms should taper off early
this evening with the loss of daytime heating or any forcing aloft.

Thursday is shaping up to be slightly hotter, humid and drier than
today as upper ridging builds over the Southern Plains. Despite a
drier environment, a slight chance for diurnally-driven showers and
storms will be possible. Any activities will need to overcome the
subsidence aloft, thus have only kept 15-20 percent of PoPs. The
best chances will be along a weak frontogenesis, which is progged to
develop along the aforementioned surface trough in the afternoon and
early evening.

JM

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday through Tuesday)
Issued at 347 AM CDT Wed Sep 27 2023

By Fri (and heading into the weekend), a building mid/upper ridge
over the Southern Plains and broad surface high pressure situated
over the eastern CONUS look be the main features for a good port-
ion of the long term forecast. This should translate to generally
light E/SE winds at the low levels and a subsident pattern aloft.
So there will be a continuation of warm above normal temperatures
and mostly dry weather through the weekend into the first part of
next week. The best POPs should be across the coastal waters dur-
ing the overnight/early morning hours... coastal and near coastal
counties during the afternoon with the sea and bay breezes. 41

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 630 AM CDT Wed Sep 27 2023

Reduced visibility due to fog will be possible around IAH, CXO and
LBX terminals through 13-14Z. Otherwise, VFR conditions are
expected through the period with light east to southeasterly
winds. Isolated showers and thunderstorms are again expected in
the afternoon and early evening. Given low confidence in coverage
and timing, will continue with VCSH. As of now, the best chances
for rain and storms is for terminals south of I-10 (SGR, HOU, LBX,
GLS).

JM

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 347 AM CDT Wed Sep 27 2023

Generally light NE/E winds and low seas will prevail across the local
waters the next several days. Isolated/scattered showers and thunder-
storms will also be possible. By the weekend, a longer fetch of mode-
rate easterly winds is expected to develop across the Gulf with winds
and seas set to increase. 41

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 99 72 98 72 / 20 0 20 10
Houston (IAH) 94 74 96 73 / 20 10 20 10
Galveston (GLS) 90 79 90 79 / 30 20 20 20

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JM
LONG TERM....41
AVIATION...JM
MARINE...41

[snowman65]

Question... I keep reading about this el nino being everywhere from strong, intense, most extreme ever, etc. Does it really make any difference to us in S. E. Tx?? If so, how??

[Stratton20]

I dont know whats more depressing, this weather or Connor Weigman being out for the rest of the season

[Rip76]

I dont know whats more depressing, this weather or Connor Weigman being out for the rest of the season

I think y’all’s backup QB Johnson is pretty darn good, I wouldn’t sweat it.

So the weather is pretty depressing.

[jasons2k]

Well there are showers popping on the radar and it’s not 100 degrees outside, so it could be worse.

I still can’t upload images:

ERROR
Failed to move uploaded file.

[Cromagnum]

I dont know whats more depressing, this weather or Connor Weigman being out for the rest of the season

I'm not sweating Max, assuming the OL does their job and keeps him protected.

[Cromagnum]

Well there are showers popping on the radar and it’s not 100 degrees outside, so it could be worse.

I still can’t upload images:

ERROR
Failed to move uploaded file.

I just go to an image hosting site like imgupload and paste the link.

[DoctorMu]

I dont know whats more depressing, this weather or Connor Weigman being out for the rest of the season

I think y’all’s backup QB Johnson is pretty darn good, I wouldn’t sweat it.

So the weather is pretty depressing.

Max Johnson looked a lot more confidant than last year. I think he fits into Petrino's offense pretty well. The first half offensive gameplan looked like Jimbo's old, tired WC offense which resulted in sacks and a season ending injury. The 2nd half looked all Petrino.

Max has a lefty rifle for an arm.

We actually had a couple of pop up daytime heating showers. Maybe 0.2 in fell. We'll gladly take what we can get!

[Cromagnum]

Lots of popcorn all around but not a drop at home. Outflows kicking off or everything that was going.

[DoctorMu]

It's not Indian summer (characteristic of NC), but regular summer weather.

I guess that's better than the last 2 turbo summers.


Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
337 PM CDT Wed Sep 27 2023

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Thursday Night)
Issued at 214 PM CDT Wed Sep 27 2023

There may be a few lingering isolated storms across portions of
Southeast TX early this evening but are expected to dissipated by
late evening as temperatures cool. For the rest of the night,
expect partly cloudy skies with low temperatures in the low to mid
70s for much of the region.

On Thursday, conditions will be slightly drier and warmer as an
upper level ridge begins to build over the Southern Plains. Expect
the high temperatures to increase to the mid to upper 90s inland
and the low 90s along the immediate coast and Barrier Islands.
Although we will be drier and with a little more subsidence
aloft, we may still have some influence of the nearby mid level
shortwave and could result in isolated showers and thunderstorms,
mainly during the mid afternoon to early evening hours. Somewhat
of a similar weather pattern expected for Thursday night with
mostly clear to partly cloudy skies and lows in the low to mid
70s.

Cotto (24)

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday through next Tuesday)
Issued at 214 PM CDT Wed Sep 27 2023

For the most part, looking at the ensemble means relative to climo
is pretty telling. For most parameters, the model guidance is
pretty solidly in the muddied middle between the 10th and 90th
percentiles. The exception? Temperatures, of course! A pretty
persistent signal for 90th percentile surface and 850 mb temps
doggedly holds through the long term forecast period. This seems
most apparent for afternoon highs, where the Euro ensemble Extreme
Forecast Index shows pretty decent swaths of the area in the 0.5
to 0.6 range. At the coast, there is also a persistent signal for
anomalously high minimum temps, which is likely tied to water
temps keeping coastal areas warm at night.

Another way to take it is my main takeaway from the night shift`s
briefing to me this morning - conditions now are typically what we`d
expect to see in the summertime. Not the blast furnace summer that
we just experienced, but an actual normal summer. And in many ways,
that is what my forecast reflects. The NBM output seems to mostly be
putting forth this picture, so I didn`t have to make much more than
minor tweaks. Somebody should probably tell the atmosphere that
while it is a very lovely summer pattern it`s giving us, we`re going
into October now and maybe we should consider doing some more
autumnal things.

Luchs

&&