TD Karl Inland West of Veracruz, MX

[Andrew]

As requested by Srain many models have been looking at possible development in the western Caribbean late next week:

Euro:

http://forums.khou.com/download/file.ph ... &mode=view



SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE VICINITY OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS
AND EXTENDING EASTWARD INTO THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FOR A FEW HUNDRED
MILES ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS APPEAR CONDUCIVE FOR SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT AS IT MOVES
LITTLE. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

[srainhoutx]

12Z GEM...

[Andrew]

Nam at 66h (also look at gulf)

[Andrew]

NAM 84h:

[srainhoutx]

Storms continue tonight. We may well see an invest in 48 hours. Perhaps a TD...

[Andrew]

GFS 36h and it begins:

[Andrew]

GFS indicates that development will be slow and this looks practical. This is looking like a large system and development is usually slow with larger systems. Also there is a giant weakness to the north with the trof and a general NW movement (once formed) should continue until the ridge builds back in and sends it west.

[Andrew]

GFS at hour 60:

[Andrew]

Keeps it weak at 144h but looks like tremendous potential:

[Andrew]

Hour 180:

[Andrew]

288 (not what you want to see):

[Andrew]

Well then...:

[Andrew]

NOGAPS 96H:

[Andrew]

[Andrew]

CMC (Time for bed):

[Scott747]

Oz Euro is a slow developer (and I mean slow as it takes another week before making it across the Caribbean) as it nears the YP and quickly strengthens in the GOM eventually hitting near Tampico. Slow enough in movement that there could always be a weakness to pull it up, otherwise this seems like a low runner.

The model observations have really gone downhill in a hurry at some of the other boards. To many people are doing nothing but wishcasting.

[wxman57]

What I see in the models is general info that after mid month, the Caribbean and Gulf may become active. I wouldn't believe specifics from any model at this point, though.

[srainhoutx]

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE LOCATED NEAR THE WINDWARD ISLANDS ARE SHOWING SOME SIGNS
OF ORGANIZATION. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR
SOME GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT AS THE LOW MOVES SLOWLY WESTWARD. THERE IS
A MEDIUM CHANCE...40 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

[srainhoutx]

BEGIN
NHC_ATCF
invest_al922010.invest
FSTDA
R
U
040
010
0000
201009091204
NONE
NOTIFY=ATRP
END
INVEST, AL, L, , , , , 92, 2010, DB, O, 2010090912, 9999999999, , , , , , METWATCH, , AL922010
AL, 92, 2010090812, , BEST, 0, 118N, 583W, 20, 1010, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 92, 2010090818, , BEST, 0, 119N, 587W, 20, 1009, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 92, 2010090900, , BEST, 0, 120N, 591W, 20, 1009, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 92, 2010090906, , BEST, 0, 121N, 596W, 20, 1009, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 92, 2010090912, , BEST, 0, 122N, 602W, 20, 1009, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,

[srainhoutx]

Oh no...

Code: Select all

 
WHXX01 KWBC 091230
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1230 UTC THU SEP 9 2010
 
DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.
 
ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR
 
DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL922010) 20100909 1200 UTC
 
        ...00 HRS...   ...12 HRS...   ...24 HRS. ..   ...36 HRS...
        100909  1200   100910  0000   100910  1200   100911  0000
 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS    12.2N  60.4W   12.4N  60.8W   12.5N  61.5W   12.8N  62.5W
BAMD    12.2N  60.4W   12.3N  61.2W   12.6N  62.5W   13.0N  64.2W
BAMM    12.2N  60.4W   12.3N  61.0W   12.3N  62.0W   12.5N  63.4W
LBAR    12.2N  60.4W   12.5N  61.2W   13.0N  62.5W   13.7N  64.0W
SHIP        20KTS          26KTS          34KTS          46KTS
DSHP        20KTS          26KTS          34KTS          46KTS
 
        ...48 HRS...   ...72 HRS...   ...96 HRS. ..   ..120 HRS...
        100911  1200   100912  1200   100913  1200   100914  1200
 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS    13.0N  63.7W   13.8N  66.9W   14.9N  70.4W   16.8N  74.1W
BAMD    13.4N  66.2W   13.9N  71.2W   14.0N  76.5W   13.6N  81.6W
BAMM    12.7N  65.1W   13.2N  68.9W   13.7N  72.7W   14.8N  76.3W
LBAR    14.4N  66.0W   16.2N  70.8W   17.7N  75.8W   19.2N  79.8W
SHIP        58KTS          76KTS          88KTS         101KTS
DSHP        58KTS          76KTS          88KTS         101KTS
 
         ...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR =  12.2N LONCUR =  60.4W DIRCUR = 280DEG SPDCUR =   5KT
LATM12 =  12.0N LONM12 =  59.3W DIRM12 = 281DEG SPDM12 =   5KT
LATM24 =  11.8N LONM24 =  58.3W
WNDCUR =   20KT RMAXWD =   40NM WNDM12 =   20KT
CENPRS = 1009MB OUTPRS = 1012MB OUTRAD =   90NM SDEPTH =   S
RD34NE =    0NM RD34SE =    0NM RD34SW =    0NM RD34NW =   0NM
 
$$