Tropical Storm Hermine Heavy Rain/Severe Threat

[MRG93415]

According to Harris County Flood Gage maps, so far so good. Western areas are reporting some 2+ inch rainfalls, but as things contniue to slowly shift east, those totals will likely rise. I am concerned that we may well see training of storms from downtown and to the W. It appears that the eastern areas of the Houston Metro are beginning to get some storms as well. It will likely be a very messy afternoon commute at the least.

Yea, I am worried about downtown alot. It has been pouring down here off and on and the buyous are not looking pretty...This is going to be a long ride home tonight..

[srainhoutx]

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
FLASH FLOOD WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1158 AM CDT TUE SEP 7 2010

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LEAGUE CITY HAS ISSUED A

* FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR...
COLORADO COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS...
JACKSON COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS...
MATAGORDA COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS...
WHARTON COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS...

* UNTIL 200 PM CDT

* AT 1154 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR
INDICATED THAT FLASH FLOODING WAS LIKELY FROM A BAND OF
THUNDERSTORMS FROM NEAR COLUMBUS TO PALACIOS. ADDITIONAL RAIN
BANDS ON THE EAST SIDE OF HERMINE WILL ROTATE INTO THESE COUNTIES
AND BRING ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAIN. 4 TO 6 INCHES OF RAIN HAS FALLEN
IN THE WARNING AREA AND ANOTHER 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN WILL BE
POSSIBLE BY 2 PM.
* LOCATIONS IN THE FLOOD WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO
WADSWORTH...VANDERBILT...SOUTH TEXAS NUCLEAR PLANT...SHERIDAN...
SARGENT...ROCK ISLAND...PIERCE...NADA...MIDFIELD...MATAGORDA...
LOUISE...LAKE TEXANA DAM...HUNGERFORD...GARWOOD...FRELSBURG...
EGYPT...DANEVANG...CORDELE...BLESSING...WHARTON...WEIMAR...VAN
VLECK...MARKHAM...LA WARD...GANADO...EL CAMPO...EDNA...EAGLE
LAKE...COLUMBUS...BOLING-IAGO AND BAY CITY.

[srainhoutx]

SPC:

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1111 AM CDT TUE SEP 07 2010

VALID 071630Z - 081200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR PARTS
OF CENTRAL/SE TX...

...CENTRAL AND SE TX THROUGH THIS EVENING...
TROPICAL STORM HERMINE MAINTAINS A WELL-DEFINED CIRCULATION TO THE
SSE OF SAT AND IS MOVING LARGELY NWD AT ABOUT 15 KT. SHORT TERM
MODEL FORECASTS INSIST ON A MORE NWWD MOTION TOWARD W/NW TX
TONIGHT...WHILE EXTRAPOLATION SUGGESTS SW OK BY THE END OF THE
PERIOD. SEVERAL OUTER CONVECTIVE BANDS WITH SUBSTANTIAL LIGHTNING
AND SOME EMBEDDED WEAK SUPERCELL STRUCTURES PERSIST IN THE ERN
QUADRANTS OF THE SYSTEM. AN INFLUX OF MID-UPPER 70S DEWPOINTS AND
WEAK SURFACE HEATING IN CLOUD BREAKS...ALONG WITH A BELT OF ENHANCED
LOW-LEVEL FLOW/SHEAR BETWEEN SAT AND HOU...WILL MAINTAIN A THREAT
FOR SUPERCELLS WITH A COUPLE OF TORNADOES THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON/EVENING.

[Met Tech]

Did a zoomed-in KWRF run for you guys again, but it's doing poorly with the east-of-track movement just like the others and I don't think it'll do a good job with totals. I'll try again in a bit. Just for fun, here's what it does from 18Z today through 18Z tomorrow (unfortunately, it's not counting what's ongoing since it had to spin up precip from zero), but still smacks your northwestern counties.

[srainhoutx]

At lot of moisture in the Gulf that has yet to come onshore...

[ticka1]

Which direction is Hermine moving in? Reading several different posts with varying answers - just curious what everyone here is seeing as far as movement in which direction?

[srainhoutx]

New Tornado Watch issued,...

Code: Select all

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
   TORNADO WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE FOR WT 647
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1215 PM CDT TUE SEP 7 2010
   
   TORNADO WATCH 647 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 800 PM CDT FOR THE
    FOLLOWING LOCATIONS
   
   TXC001-015-035-039-041-051-071-089-139-145-157-161-167-185-201-
   213-217-221-225-239-251-289-291-293-309-313-321-339-349-373-395-
   407-425-455-471-473-477-481-080100-
   /O.NEW.KWNS.TO.A.0647.100907T1715Z-100908T0100Z/
   
   TX 
   .    TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
   
   ANDERSON             AUSTIN              BOSQUE              
   BRAZORIA             BRAZOS              BURLESON            
   CHAMBERS             COLORADO            ELLIS               
   FALLS                FORT BEND           FREESTONE           
   GALVESTON            GRIMES              HARRIS              
   HENDERSON            HILL                HOOD                
   HOUSTON              JACKSON             JOHNSON             
   LEON                 LIBERTY             LIMESTONE           
   MADISON              MATAGORDA           MCLENNAN            
   MONTGOMERY           NAVARRO             POLK                
   ROBERTSON            SAN JACINTO         SOMERVELL           
   TRINITY              WALKER              WALLER              
   WASHINGTON           WHARTON             
   

[Andrew]

At lot of moisture in the Gulf that has yet to come onshore...

Yea srain and the farther north she moves the more of that we will get. Plus the instability ( as represented by the tornado watch) is pretty strong

[srainhoutx]

Which direction is Hermine moving in? Reading several different posts with varying answers - just curious what everyone here is seeing as far as movement in which direction?

Still looks NNE ticka1. Appears that the center is on the eastern side of San Antonio/Seguin. I know that there are reports of power outages in the San Antonio area.

[Met Tech]

Models are still having a hard time initializing the low in the right place, even the hourly-updating high-res models like RUC, Rapid Refresh, and HRRR are putting it too far west and too slow. Many seem to keep the axis of heavy rain west of Houston because of it.

[ticka1]

Which direction is Hermine moving in? Reading several different posts with varying answers - just curious what everyone here is seeing as far as movement in which direction?

Still looks NNE ticka1. Appears that the center is on the eastern side of San Antonio/Seguin. I know that there are reports of power outages in the San Antonio area.

Thanks srainhoutx - having a discussion with someone and they were just certain that it was going NW but I wanted to confirm with the folks that are in the know here and stated it was going NNE. Will keep an eye on Hermine. Looks like chambers county is now being included in some of the watches now - shifting a little more east.

[Met Tech]

Kelly Field in San Antonio reporting peak wind of 45 kt/52 mph.

KSKF 071724Z 02030G45KT 1/2SM R15/2200V3000FT +RA BR BKN003 OVC014 24/23 A2954 RMK AO2A PK WND 36045/1720 PRESFR SLP994 $

[Andrew]

Some serious training going on and due to our proximity to the gulf, I would expect the dryness to the west to fill in. Looks like a nasty setup

[Scott747]

I don't see any eastern component so far. Still looks due N.

[Scott747]

Models are still having a hard time initializing the low in the right place, even the hourly-updating high-res models like RUC, Rapid Refresh, and HRRR are putting it too far west and too slow. Many seem to keep the axis of heavy rain west of Houston because of it.

Odd how they are handling it with what is still such a well defined system.

[srainhoutx]

I don't see any eastern component so far. Still looks due N.

You are correct.

000
WTNT35 KNHC 071740
TCPAT5
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM HERMINE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 7A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102010
100 PM CDT TUE SEP 07 2010

...HERMINE ...


SUMMARY OF 100 PM CDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...29.3N 98.4W
ABOUT 15 MI...25 KM SSE OF SAN ANTONIO TEXAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 350 DEGREES AT 20 MPH...31 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES

[srainhoutx]

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
FLASH FLOOD WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1238 PM CDT TUE SEP 7 2010

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LEAGUE CITY HAS ISSUED A

* FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR...
HARRIS COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS...

* UNTIL 330 PM CDT

* AT 1230 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR
INDICATED THAT FLASH FLOODING WAS LIKELY FROM A CLUSTER OF
THUNDERSTORMS OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN HARRIS COUNTY. 1 TO 3
INCHES OF RAIN HAS ALREADY FALLEN OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN PORTION OF
THE COUNTY WITH AN ADDITIONAL 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN POSSIBLE BY
230 PM.

* LOCATIONS IN THE FLOOD WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO THE
MEDICAL CENTER...RELIANT PARK...MINUTE MAID PARK...MEMORIAL...
HERMAN PARK...THE GALLERIA...ELLINGTON FIELD...
BUSH-INTERCONTINENTAL AIRPORT...ADDICKS...WEST UNIVERSITY PLACE...
SPRING VALLEY...SOUTHSIDE PLACE...SOUTH HOUSTON...PINEY POINT
VILLAGE...PASADENA...JERSEY VILLAGE...JACINTO CITY...HUNTERS CREEK
VILLAGE...HUMBLE...HOUSTON...HILSHIRE VILLAGE...HEDWIG VILLAGE...
GALENA PARK...CLOVERLEAF...BUNKER HILL VILLAGE...BELLAIRE AND
ALDINE.

[Andrew]

The north movement could be worst though because if there was an easterly movement we would get a little more in that dry slot to the west but now the line is going to move slower east, delaying any break.

[Scott747]

I don't see any eastern component so far. Still looks due N.

You are correct.

It's been confusing that some have seen this eastern movement when it has hardly shown much evidence of it since landfall. Steady N to NNW. Otherwise by now it would have been tracking more towards Austin. In some respects a track such of that may have lessened the rain in our area with the banding pushing a bit more towards Louisiana.

[Scott747]

The north movement could be worst though because if there was an easterly movement we would get a little more in that dry slot to the west but now the line is going to move slower east, delaying any break.

Just from some of the earlier discos I don't think the expectation was for such a well organized circulation to remain intact this long and this far inland which has lead to the continuous feeder band action. Not incredibly surprising with being to pull up so much moisture from the Gulf with the setup.