2023 Hurricane Season Discussion

[Cpv17]

weatherguy425 guess I didnt think about that, though if this system is absolute to consolidate a solid mositure bubble field/ it might be able to fend off some of the dry air, also depends on the trajctory of the system in land, on the cmc it just moves straight due west in land, GFS has a better movement in more of a NW component

I’d much rather it go towards San Antonio than Dallas. They need the rain more there and plus we would stay on the wetter side for longer.

[Stratton20]

That euro run is nice!

[Scott747]

Probably the 'strongest' run yet by the 6z GFS. Looks to briefly try and close off into a weak and disorganized depression as it nears the mid to lower Texas coast early next week.

0z Euro was further n with a disorganized mess and decent rain totals for the upper and mid Texas coast.

Probably a day or two before the nhc gives it a mention if model trends continue.

[MontgomeryCoWx]

Come to CoCo TD

[weatherguy425]

A pretty good thread on the upcoming setup and pieces to the puzzle.

[don]

That euro run is nice!

[Stratton20]

The CMC and GFS are trending further south with a stronger SE us ridge, not what we want to see

[weatherguy425]

As some of the 12Z suite comes in further south, it’s important to note that in addition to ridge position and strength… operational runs are also struggling to agree on where (or if) a surface low may form; that position will also be key for additional track. Back and forth will continue.

[weatherguy425]

The CMC and GFS are trending further south with a stronger SE us ridge, not what we want to see

Notice the differences between the CMC & GFS in regards to where a low may form or try to form - that’s perhaps the biggest difference.

[don]

The CMC and GFS are trending further south with a stronger SE us ridge, not what we want to see

Notice the differences between the CMC & GFS in regards to where a low may form or try to form - that’s perhaps the biggest difference.

I've noticed that also. The EURO and GFS have the main area of vorticity taking shape in the Florida straits. While the Canadian model is south of Cuba with the consolidation of vorticity.

[Dls2010r]

Are we gonna get rain or do we stay dry!!!!! This is miserable!!!!

[weatherguy425]

Are we gonna get rain or do we stay dry!!!!! This is miserable!!!!

One day… it will rain again.

[Dls2010r]

FML!!!!!

[Dls2010r]

Not looking good for the home team!!!!!! Ugh!!!!!

[weatherguy425]

Not looking good for the home team!!!!!! Ugh!!!!!

Nothing is in “there” yet. Simply too early to bank on any scenario.

[Stratton20]

Euro consolidates the wave near the florida straights but even it has shifted south towards south texas… Ridge is stronger, feels like hanna all over again, keeps shifting south

[weatherguy425]

Euro consolidates the wave near the florida straights but even it has shifted south towards south texas… Ridge is stronger, feels like hanna all over again, keeps shifting south

Ridge is subtly further south.

1. Don’t have a system yet
2. Formation, itself, is questionable
3. 500 MB details are still very uncertain

Just something to keep an eye on. Now is also the time to pay closer attn to ensembles and the general pattern, not operational runs. Whether this system brings beneficial rain to the upper Texas coast… or not… it’s still a better pattern.

[Stratton20]

weatherguy425 fair points, i guess given the lack of rain this summer, and the models showing a chance for rain in se texas this summer and its almost never verified, guess my skepticism is high

[weatherguy425]

weatherguy425 fair points, i guess given the lack of rain this summer, and the models showing a chance for rain in se texas this summer and its almost never verified, guess my skepticism is high

There were no real busts though, just excitement 6-9 days out. This could be a miss, but still worth keeping an eye on.

[Stratton20]

Also take a look at this, why im a little wary of the week solutions, thats quite an upper level anticyclone in the ensembles, if the wave finds itself underneath that, just saying potential is their for this wave to go off