Let’s just hope this high doesn’t “Don,” whatever may come our way.
The 12z Euro has a TD or a very weak TS coming towards us but it only gives us 1-2” of rain… so not much moisture with it. So yeah, the Don thing makes sense but let’s hope we can at least get that. But I wouldn’t get your hopes up that something even comes here yet. That’s a long ways out.
Everything we see at this range is being taken with a grain of salt. That being said, this isn't the same scenario as Don. The model - taken verbatim, does has some dry air over the state, but isn't the primary reason for relatively low QPF.
Yep, the reason for the low QPF the models are showing has more to do with a lack of organization more than anything.If the models were showing a legit TC those rainfall totals would be higher.But as an open wave/tropical low usually will only produce excessive rainfall in a localized area.As they usually lack the organization and strength to sustain feeder bands over a sizeable area,like a TC can.
At this point even a tropical wave would be nice.But we would need a TC to get any real "drought busting" rains more than likely.
brazoriatx not quite, their are a few factors here that are going to lead to the atlantic waking up, Dr. Levi Cowan or the creator of Tropical Tidbits talks about it in his latest tweet post, an actice period is coming
Most storms that are located in that area are recurving fish storms anyway. Very few storms located in that area will be a threat to the CONUS, much less the Gulf.
But yeah, dry air is going to be a problem. We’re not going to really see the season take off till it starts diminishing but if storms can make it further west, they will probably find better conditions.
Most storms that are located in that area are recurving fish storms anyway. Very few storms located in that area will be a threat to the CONUS, much less the Gulf.
But yeah, dry air is going to be a problem. We’re not going to really see the season take off till it starts diminishing but if storms can make it further west, they will probably find better conditions.
Agreed....that storm position would be at too high a latitude to NOT curve out to sea
Weak front will bring some modest relief to the high heat index values late Tuesday into Wednesday and a 20-30% chance of rain.
Strong tropical wave may approach the TX early to mid next week with more widespread rainfall and lowered daytime highs. Will need to watch this wave for any signs of development.
The 12z GFS now shows development of the tropical wave the cmc and euro both show, CMC strong tropical storm (997 mb), GFS weak sheared depression but closed low, CMC near corpus, GFS near galveston
Stratton20 wrote: ↑Mon Aug 14, 2023 11:50 am
The 12z GFS now shows development of the tropical wave the cmc and euro both show, CMC strong tropical storm (997 mb), GFS weak sheared depression but closed low, CMC near corpus, GFS near galveston
I’d like a strong tropical storm or up to a weak cat 2, personally, and for it to come in around Port O’Connor and track towards San Antonio.
Stratton20 wrote: ↑Mon Aug 14, 2023 11:50 am
The 12z GFS now shows development of the tropical wave the cmc and euro both show, CMC strong tropical storm (997 mb), GFS weak sheared depression but closed low, CMC near corpus, GFS near galveston
Yep, GFS now shows some minor development.With the CMC still showing a tropical storm.
Screenshot 2023-08-14 at 11-36-21 Models GFS — Pivotal Weather.png
Screenshot 2023-08-14 at 11-37-35 Models GDPS — Pivotal Weather.png
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