August 2023

[tireman4]

FXUS64 KHGX 101138
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
638 AM CDT Thu Aug 10 2023

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Friday Night)
Issued at 251 AM CDT Thu Aug 10 2023

With a robust midlevel ridge continuing to dominate the weather
pattern across the Southern CONUS, we continue to focus on the
resulting excessive heat and fire weather risks as we close out
the week. The forecast in the immediate term remains effectively a
persistence one. With midlevel heights remaining fairly steady
today and moderate onshore surface winds expected to redevelop
this afternoon, afternoon high temperatures should once again
eclipse the triple digits across most of the region. With both
today`s and tomorrow`s highs expected to approach the 105 mark, an
Excessive Heat Warning has been issued roughly along and north of
the I-10 corridor through at least tomorrow evening. For other
locations, the Heat Advisory has also been extended over the same
time frame. Relatively efficient daytime mixing will help to
mitigate heat index values somewhat by lowering inland dew points
to the 60s, though closer to the coast some locations may see
afternoon values in the 113-115 range for both today and tomorrow.
For the remainder of the area, heat indicies will reach as high
as 110-112 during the afternoon hours.

Overnight lows are again unlikely to dip much below 80 over the next
48 hours, which will further amplify the heat stress risk across the
area. Like the past several days, aside from the potential for a
very isolated morning thunderstorm well offshore, we do not
anticipate any new precipitation.

Fire weather conditions remain a concern (see Fire section below)
with afternoon RH values reaching near or just below 30% and winds
of around 15 mph, a Red Flag Warning has again been issued for
portions of the Brazos Valley.

Cady

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through Wednesday)
Issued at 251 AM CDT Thu Aug 10 2023

More of the same...the ridge isn`t going anywhere. Slight variations
of strength/position will make for some very insignificant temperature
variations on a day-to-day basis into the middle of next week, but
bottom line is that dangerous heat will continue. Rain chances
will remain be slim to none, with the exception of the possibility
of some isolated precip offshore next week with some higher PW`s
filtering into the region. 47

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 637 AM CDT Thu Aug 10 2023

Scattered MVFR cigs continue to linger along and north of the I-10
corridor this morning, but should dissipate within the next few
hours. VFR conditions should otherwise prevail into the evening
with winds once again picking up to 10-15 knots and gusts in
excess of 20 knots possible. Winds relax slightly this evening as
scattered MVFR cigs are favored to develop yet again.

Cady

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 251 AM CDT Thu Aug 10 2023

Tighter gradient will remain in place today with 15-20kt onshore
winds and 3-5ft seas. Will maintain the caution flags and the
advertisement of higher rip current possibilities in place.
Winds/seas slightly diminish this weekend into early next week as
the gradient weakens. 47

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 251 AM CDT Thu Aug 10 2023

Elevated to critical fire weather conditions remain a concern for
today. We continue to closely monitor locations across the Brazos
Valley, where a Red Flag Warning has been issued due to the
expectation of afternoon RH values of 25-30% and winds of 15 mph
with higher gusts. Conditions will remain elevated to the east of
the Brazos Valley, with lighter winds being the factor limiting an
expansion of the RF Warning. Nonetheless, conditions will need to be
monitored closely this afternoon.

Cady

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 105 79 105 80 / 0 0 0 0
Houston (IAH) 104 82 104 82 / 0 0 0 0
Galveston (GLS) 93 85 94 84 / 10 0 10 10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Excessive Heat Warning until 10 PM CDT Friday for TXZ163-164-
176>179-195>200-210>214-300-313.

Red Flag Warning from 1 PM this afternoon to 10 PM CDT this
evening for TXZ195>197.

Heat Advisory until 10 PM CDT Friday for TXZ226-227-235>238-
335>338-436>439.

High Rip Current Risk through this evening for TXZ436>439.

GM...Small Craft Should Exercise Caution through this evening for
GMZ330-335.

Small Craft Should Exercise Caution until 1 PM CDT this
afternoon for GMZ350-355-370-375.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Cady
LONG TERM....42
AVIATION...Cady
MARINE...42

[tireman4]

Just have to say what’s happening in Lahaina and other parts of Maui is a tragedy. Lahaina is our little haven away from it all. It’s been a tough day.

What happened?

Virtually the entire town was completely engulfed by a wildfire. Nothing left. The entire historical district and Front Street is gone. It happened so fast people fled into the Pacific, then the marina and the boats went ablaze and all the fuel floating on the water created an inferno on the ocean too. It’s one of the worst disasters I’ve ever seen and it happened to a place I dearly love

Lots of history there. There was a map store with one of the largest private map collections in the world. The owner had a drawer full of original maps from Florida from the 1800’s. I was going to order some prints from her - it’s all gone.

https://twitter.com/us_stormwatch/statu ... LK8-EahY_A

https://twitter.com/elimakani/status/16 ... LK8-EahY_A

https://twitter.com/yzimng2/status/1689 ... LK8-EahY_A

https://www.cnn.com/us/live-news/maui-w ... index.html

The Eagles sang about the town in the song, The Last Resort off of the Hotel California CD

[Cromagnum]

I know it hasn't been, but it feels like every day this summer has been over 100 degrees.

[tireman4]

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 1232 PM CDT Thu Aug 10 2023

All sites at VFR with VFR prevailing through the rest of today
into tonight. MVFR CIGs return tomorrow morning, with improvement
to VFR by mid-morning. Winds for today will continue to be in the
10-15 knot range out of the S-SW. Gusts of up to 25 knots will be
possible through this evening. Winds will relax overnight, and are
forecast to increase again Friday late morning.

[sambucol]

Hurricane projection numbers have been increased. https://www.facebook.com/10009318083181 ... UsfZFnDnl/

[DoctorMu]

I know it hasn't been, but it feels like every day this summer has been over 100 degrees.

Since the middle of June, the only break was a couple of days near the July 4 weekend.

[Cromagnum]

I know it hasn't been, but it feels like every day this summer has been over 100 degrees.

Since the middle of June, the only break was a couple of days near the July 4 weekend.

Yeah, at this point I need about a foot or two of rain to fall over a week to get back to semi-normal conditions.

[user:null]

The only other minor break other than 4th of July week was the 23rd week for areas south of I-10: areas of Brazoria county cashed in alot.

[MontgomeryCoWx]

The cracks in our hay pasture are quite large. That drought insurance check is going to be nice but I will be reseeding this fall when the rains come.

[tireman4]

000
FXUS64 KHGX 111140
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
640 AM CDT Fri Aug 11 2023

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Saturday Night)
Issued at 332 AM CDT Fri Aug 11 2023

Very hot conditions will continue to prevail as we close out the
week and head into the weekend, where the prospect of heat stress
will remain the primary weather concern. A robust and persistent
midlevel ridge continues to remain in place over the South Central
CONUS, showing little sign of breaking down for the time being. As
such, we remain in what should effectively be a persistence forecast
for the next few days. An Excessive Heat Warning has been expanded
further towards the coast based on observed conditions today, with
highs along and north of the I-10 corridor expected to reach around
105 in many locations. Areas closer to the immediate coast will see
the persistence of mid 70s to low 80s dew point values over the
course of the day, yielding maximum heat index values as high as 115
this afternoon. A very similar outlook is anticipated on Saturday,
and given this the Warning has also been extended in time until
Saturday evening. Around Matagorda Bay, slightly lower high
temperatures will produce heat index values of around 110-112, thus
keeping this region within a Heat Advisory over the same time frame.
Heat precautions should be taken regardless.

Overnight lows will continue to struggle to dip below 80, and will
hover around 85 along the immediate coast. This will likely be aided
by the presence of scattered clouds during the overnight period as
we have seen over the past few days.

Aside from the chance of a very isolated storm offshore during the
morning hours tomorrow, we do not anticipate any new rainfall during
the short term period.

Cady

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through Thursday)
Issued at 332 AM CDT Fri Aug 11 2023

Continued hot & humid. Shortwave dropping esewd into the nctl US
and toward the Great Lakes/Midwest partially erodes western
periphery of the ridge across the cntl & east Gulf Coast states in
the early-mid parts of next week. Locally, 500mb heights will
fall from ~597dm to around 594dm and H85 temps drop a few degrees
as the center of the ridge repositions to our w/nw. Ambient temps
should fall a touch...but still be well above climo and around or
above the century mark.

In regards to rain chances...guidance shows some higher PW`s tracking
inland from the Gulf and pooling south of a weak frontal boundary
that could sag closer or partially into the area Tue-Wed. Subsidence
still looks like a significant limiting factor for rain/convection
for most of us, so will maintain the already advertised low chances
for now (and hope the more bullish models come to fruition). 47

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 635 AM CDT Fri Aug 11 2023

Scattered MVFR cigs continue to prevail this morning as we have
seen over the past few days. These cigs should dissipate over the
next 2-3 hours with moderate SSW winds developing by late morning.
Wind gusts of 20 knots or higher will once again be possible
during the day. Winds will shift slightly to the south by early
evening, relaxing as MVFR cigs once again begin to develop around
midnight.

Cady

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 332 AM CDT Fri Aug 11 2023

A fairly typical summertime marine pattern will prevail with light
to moderate onshore winds prevailing. Speeds will generally be
highest at night in the Gulf and during the day in the bays. Rain
chances will remain close to zero through the weekend, and only
slight chances early next week. 47

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 332 AM CDT Fri Aug 11 2023

Elevated to critical fire weather conditions remain a concern today.
A Red Flag Warning has been re-issued for portions of the Brazos
Valley, where wind speeds of around 15 mph with higher gusts and
minimum RH values of around 25% remain in the forecast. Elevated
fire conditions persist to the east of this region, where RH values
will be similarly low but wind speeds will be slightly lighter.
Nonetheless, these areas will need to continue to be monitored for
a possible expansion of the Warning in the next few days.

Cady

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 106 79 105 78 / 0 0 0 0
Houston (IAH) 104 83 104 81 / 0 0 10 0
Galveston (GLS) 94 85 92 84 / 0 0 10 0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Excessive Heat Warning until 10 PM CDT Saturday for TXZ163-164-
176>179-195>200-210>214-227-237-238-300-313-337-338-438-439.

Red Flag Warning from 1 PM this afternoon to 10 PM CDT this
evening for TXZ195>197.

Heat Advisory until 10 PM CDT Saturday for TXZ226-235-236-335-
336-436-437.

High Rip Current Risk through this evening for TXZ436>439.

GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Cady
LONG TERM....42
AVIATION...Cady
MARINE...42

[Cromagnum]

100 degree heat index walking out the door. Good grief.

[Cpv17]

We don’t really have many cracks yet around my house. I guess we’re holding up better than some of y’all are even though we’ve only had 1” of rain in the past 11 weeks.

[user:null]

We don’t really have many cracks yet around my house. I guess we’re holding up better than some of y’all are even though we’ve only had 1” of rain in the past 11 weeks.

Differences in soil regimes play a role: whether you have heavy expansive clay soil (which will crack heavily when dry), or you have soil with more sand/silt content.

[Cromagnum]

How many days over 100 since the first one this year?

[Rip76]

How many days over 100 since the first one this year?

12-ish I think?

[DoctorMu]

34 here. That's in a row. There were more in June and just before July 4 - about 42 altogether up in CLL.

No end in sight until sometime after the 20th.

[user:null]

So, we have trade-offs:

Humid heat is muggier, but the greater moisture in the air slows dessication and curbs wildfire/red flag threats.

Dry heat is more comfortable. But, stuff dessicates faster, and if it goes on long enough, you get wildfires like what happened in Hawaii. Even much of East Texas pine forests is a tinderbox with this lack of rain (provided that they haven't been as humid) ... let alone South/Central TX. What happened in Hawaii can easily be a much larger disaster if it sparks in Austin/San Antonio areas.

[jasons2k]

So, we have trade-offs:

Humid heat is muggier, but the greater moisture in the air slows dessication and curbs wildfire/red flag threats.

Dry heat is more comfortable. But, stuff dessicates faster, and if it goes on long enough, you get wildfires like what happened in Hawaii. Even much of East Texas pine forests is a tinderbox with this lack of rain (provided that they haven't been as humid) ... let alone South/Central TX. What happened in Hawaii can easily be a much larger disaster if it sparks in Austin/San Antonio areas.

One of my biggest fears is a massive out-of-control pine forest crown fire whipped by high winds. God help us if that happens.

[MontgomeryCoWx]

So, we have trade-offs:

Humid heat is muggier, but the greater moisture in the air slows dessication and curbs wildfire/red flag threats.

Dry heat is more comfortable. But, stuff dessicates faster, and if it goes on long enough, you get wildfires like what happened in Hawaii. Even much of East Texas pine forests is a tinderbox with this lack of rain (provided that they haven't been as humid) ... let alone South/Central TX. What happened in Hawaii can easily be a much larger disaster if it sparks in Austin/San Antonio areas.

One of my biggest fears is a massive out-of-control pine forest crown fire whipped by high winds. God help us if that happens.

Woodlands would be toast

[DoctorMu]

108°F ties our high this year.

That wind is no joke out there. Gusting to 30 mph.