2023 Hurricane Season Discussion

[Cpv17]

Cpv17 yep, and anything that gets into the gulf is likely to become a very powerful storm, favorable shear, absolute jet fuel water temps, high upper ocean heat content, if that doesnt spell trouble I dont know what does

Yep. Water temps in the Gulf are generally about 86-91°F.

[Stratton20]

Now we just need something like a CCKW or a favorable passage of the MJO to kick start things

[Stratton20]

Even though its not expected to threaten the gulf of mexico, we have a new area to watch off the florida / se coast, 95L has also found its way underneath an anticyclone and has alot more convection today, definitely signs the atlantic is waking up

[DoctorMu]

The southern Gulf and Caribbean are Hurricane Death on a stick.

However, the northern Gulf with the front and low shear, plus bathwater temps = tropical trouble?

[Stratton20]

Definitely possible, i wouldnt be surprised at all to eventually see something brew, homegrown season!

[Stratton20]

18z GFS tries to reconsolidate 95L, approaches the yucatan as a tropical storm

[Ptarmigan]

If conditions are right, we could see some strong hurricanes in the Gulf of Mexico.

[Stratton20]

( should have posted my comment in this threat instead) Models are showing that wave thats designated 20% by the NHC near the bahamas, getting into the gulf and generally tracking west towards lousiana or texas, that will be something worth watching, mark sudduth believes we need to watch that for potential sneaky gulf development

[Ptarmigan]

( should have posted my comment in this threat instead) Models are showing that wave thats designated 20% by the NHC near the bahamas, getting into the gulf and generally tracking west towards lousiana or texas, that will be something worth watching, mark sudduth believes we need to watch that for potential sneaky gulf development

Storms can spin up quickly in the Gulf of Mexico.

[Stratton20]

I dont see much happening in the tropics until probably the 2nd or third week of august, looks like a pretty quiet start to august beaides that one wave thats gonna go out to sea

[Cpv17]

I dont see much happening in the tropics until probably the 2nd or third week of august, looks like a pretty quiet start to august beaides that one wave thats gonna go out to sea

From what I’m hearing the third week of August is when things should pick up. If that’s the case the numbers forecasted might need to be adjusted down a bit. I was almost sure the end of July and beginning of August would produce. Well I guess that wave coming off Africa might develop but I don’t really give two cents about that wave since it’ll probably be a fish storm. I’m still under the impression that the Gulf might not see much action this year. I think the EC and open Atlantic will see almost all of the action.

[Stratton20]

Long range models show above normal rainfall in the gulf in august

[Cpv17]

Long range models show above normal rainfall in the gulf in august

I’ll buy you a steak dinner if I’m wrong

We’ll see!

[DoctorMu]

I dont see much happening in the tropics until probably the 2nd or third week of august, looks like a pretty quiet start to august beaides that one wave thats gonna go out to sea

From what I’m hearing the third week of August is when things should pick up. If that’s the case the numbers forecasted might need to be adjusted down a bit. I was almost sure the end of July and beginning of August would produce. Well I guess that wave coming off Africa might develop but I don’t really give two cents about that wave since it’ll probably be a fish storm. I’m still under the impression that the Gulf might not see much action this year. I think the EC and open Atlantic will see almost all of the action.

That sounds about right. The ridge is not giving up the ghost easily.

[Stratton20]

By the end of august the death ridge pattern will meet its demise entirely as teleconnections line up to squash it, so the heat ridge wont be a huge factor anymore, i am taking a more cautious approach here as while most storms will probably be recurves this season, i still think the Gulf does not get away so easily this season, not with how warm it is, we got a long ways to go, if anything im a little more concerned with september as long range guidance shows most of the gulf is above normal with rainfall, think we get a couple of systems in the gulf still, once the MDR shuts down, the GOM opens up for business

[Cpv17]

The middle part of August is beginning to look a bit interesting.

[sambucol]

By the end of august the death ridge pattern will meet its demise entirely as teleconnections line up to squash it, so the heat ridge wont be a huge factor anymore, i am taking a more cautious approach here as while most storms will probably be recurves this season, i still think the Gulf does not get away so easily this season, not with how warm it is, we got a long ways to go, if anything im a little more concerned with september as long range guidance shows most of the gulf is above normal with rainfall, think we get a couple of systems in the gulf still, once the MDR shuts down, the GOM opens up for business

That model was initialized on June 30 if I’m reading it right. I’m wondering if anything has changed within the last month since it was ran that would change the September outlook.

[Stratton20]

sambucol yeah they only come out once a month, so the next one should be on the 30th of july, though they have remained consistent on august/september and even possibly october being wetter than normal in the gulf, these quiet seasons can tend to cause the public to lower their guards just because its been quiet so far
Edit* These models come out twice a day, a 06z run and a 18z run

[sambucol]

Agree. No action, and people drop their guard.

[Stratton20]

sambucol and with how unbelievably warm the gulf is, all it takes is for some sort of disturbance to get into the gulf and its game over for someone, we arent safe from storms until mid september or early october so we got a long ways to go