June 2023

[Cromagnum]

Not seeing much of anything on radar for today.

[cperk]

I like that 18z GFS run, sets up a caribbean moisture pineapple express train and just funnels moisture into the texas coast, just a little longer folks, the end
of this miserable heatwave pattern is in sight!

I really hope you are right.

[davidiowx]

Bummer.. would have loved to see a little rain.. boundaries around but nada

[Ptarmigan]

I like that 18z GFS run, sets up a caribbean moisture pineapple express train and just funnels moisture into the texas coast, just a little longer folks, the end
of this miserable heatwave pattern is in sight!

Let's hope the forecast holds up.

[DoctorMu]

I like that 18z GFS run, sets up a caribbean moisture pineapple express train and just funnels moisture into the texas coast, just a little longer folks, the end
of this miserable heatwave pattern is in sight!

Let's hope the forecast holds up.

The Ensembles are consistently down to the mid 90s for highs once we enter the first week of July, and an increased chance of rain. Fingers crossed.

[Stratton20]

In addition to the models agreeing that the ridge will break down around the 1 st, might want to keep an eye on potential mischief as the GFS indicates lowering of the pressures in the gulf associated with its troughiness that it shows, hints at something down the road, regardless the rub looks beautiful for rain chances in se texas!

[Cromagnum]

What do ya know. Beaumont getting rain again.

[TexasBreeze]

So far the gfs has been consistent in showing the ridge breaking after the 1st of July and today's run is even better and hope the trends continue

[user:null]

It's always the "magic wall" between Beaumont and Houston. At least Chambers and Liberty ensure that somewhere in Greater Houston gets some action. But now things seem to be petering out as soon as they reach Harris (unless, maybe, a sea-breeze moves in to interact with any remnant outflows).

I feel like somethings changed ever since IKE 2008. Not sure what, but the repetitive nature of this phenom given the otherwise flat geography cannot be just coincidence (even factoring in any subsidence/ridge).

[Stratton20]

And now the euro shows troughing setting up shop over texas at the end-of this run, the death ridge will meet its demise!

[DoctorMu]

After today, just hang on until July.

[don]

It's always the "magic wall" between Beaumont and Houston. At least Chambers and Liberty ensure that somewhere in Greater Houston gets some action. But now things seem to be petering out as soon as they reach Harris (unless, maybe, a sea-breeze moves in to interact with any remnant outflows).

I feel like somethings changed ever since IKE 2008. Not sure what, but the repetitive nature of this phenom given the otherwise flat geography cannot be just coincidence (even factoring in any subsidence/ridge).

Its the position of the trough. Since there is a trough right now over the southeast the closer you are to it the higher influence it will have. And during these La Nina's of the past few years the trough placement has been further north and east more often than not.Which benefited the golden triangle more.(The PDO flip of the late 2000's also probably plays a part.)When the trough was over the Rockies/Southwest and into west Texas in May and early June the western half of SE Texas saw more rain than the eastern half.There were several events in May that were washouts for western portions of SE Texas while the golden triangle mostly stayed dry.Because of the developing El Nino i expect more widespread rain will return sooner than later.

[captainbarbossa19]

It's always the "magic wall" between Beaumont and Houston. At least Chambers and Liberty ensure that somewhere in Greater Houston gets some action. But now things seem to be petering out as soon as they reach Harris (unless, maybe, a sea-breeze moves in to interact with any remnant outflows).

I feel like somethings changed ever since IKE 2008. Not sure what, but the repetitive nature of this phenom given the otherwise flat geography cannot be just coincidence (even factoring in any subsidence/ridge).

Its the position of the trough. Since there is a trough right now over the southeast the closer you are to it the higher influence it will have. And during these La Nina's of the past few years the trough placement has been further north and east more often than not.Which benefited the golden triangle more.(The PDO flip of the late 2000's also probably plays a part.)When the trough was over the Rockies/Southwest and into west Texas in May and early June the western half of SE Texas saw more rain than the eastern half.There were several events in May that were washouts for western portions of SE Texas while the golden triangle mostly stayed dry.Because of the developing El Nino i expect more widespread rain will return sooner than later.

I agree with this. In all honesty, I would not be surprised if June ends up being Houston's hottest and driest summer month this year. It takes a while for the atmosphere to respond to ocean changes, but they will eventually become evident after enough time.

[DoctorMu]

We have a hot week ahead, but by Wed. the dew points could lower enough to feel less oppressive in the evening.

[user:null]

Its the position of the trough. Since there is a trough right now over the southeast the closer you are to it the higher influence it will have. And during these La Nina's of the past few years the trough placement has been further north and east more often than not.Which benefited the golden triangle more.(The PDO flip of the late 2000's also probably plays a part.)When the trough was over the Rockies/Southwest and into west Texas in May and early June the western half of SE Texas saw more rain than the eastern half.There were several events in May that were washouts for western portions of SE Texas while the golden triangle mostly stayed dry.Because of the developing El Nino i expect more widespread rain will return sooner than later.

I agree with this. In all honesty, I would not be surprised if June ends up being Houston's hottest and driest summer month this year. It takes a while for the atmosphere to respond to ocean changes, but they will eventually become evident after enough time.

Yea, it's definitely been lots of Eastern US troughs during summers of late, particularly centered in the Great Lakes region. Definitely keeps ridging confined to Texas/Western states where it can yield greater dry air, while a lot of Atlantic/Gulf moisture gets deflected eastwards into the Southeast up the East Coast.

Western US troughs in the Rockies/Southwest will definitely benefit Texas more. Sadly, those are much less common during summer compared to the aformentioned Eastern US trough, so hopefully the upcoming pattern change after nextweek turns into a pleasantly surprising verification (although we need the troughs/pieces to be just right, or else it will turn into a hot mess just like this recent 18zGFS).

Houston/southern half of Texas also tends to benefit well with elongated ridging across the country, which provides more saturated (300-700mb moisture) easterly flow. This tells me that midlatitudes/Rossby waves are less beneficial compared to more "tropical-dominant" patterns (i.e. poleward shifts of cells).

[Stratton20]

That 18z GFS run is fantastic!

[Cpv17]

Random storm just popped up over the east side of Houston.

[Cromagnum]

Random storm just popped up over the east side of Houston.

I hope it comes on over this way.

[don]

It thundering here.Looks like an outflow boundary triggered it.

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[Cpv17]

Random storm just popped up over the east side of Houston.

I hope it comes on over this way.

Knowing your luck, it probably won’t rain there for the next two weeks.