June 2023

[Cromagnum]

Models were showing that MCS dieing before it got down here, then storms refiring. The exact opposite happened so far.

[don]

Picked up almost 2 inches here.

[Ptarmigan]

Models were showing that MCS dieing before it got down here, then storms refiring. The exact opposite happened so far.

It shows forecast models get it wrong. Forecast models do get it right as well.

[Stratton20]

I dont expect much in the way of redevelopment this afternoon, as expected the atmosphere is too worked over from the MCS

[DoctorMu]

Rainfall amount - I'd estimate about 0.7 in IMBY Only about 0.28 inches at the airport.

Good, but we need more. Our rain left in the wee hours, so there may be less substinence.

Widely scattered daytime heating driven showers appear to be the norm through Tuesday - about 40% chance every day. Seabreeze chances after that through next Saturday.

Expect the ridge to begin building after next weekend.


.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through Saturday)
Issued at 425 AM CDT Sun Jun 4 2023

With the cutoff mid/upper level low meandering in the region through
mid week, SE TX will remain in a favorable spot for continued active
weather as a series of short-waves move down from the Plains. And as
it has been of late the timing of these systems look to be the major
problem with the forecast. Current runs are indicating that the bulk
of these disturbances could be more of an issue for the evening/over-
night crews. For now, will keep at least scattered POPs in the grids
for both daytime and nighttime hours for Tues/Weds.

Heading into Thur/Fri, the stronger closed low over the Baja will be
on the move east and push some weak ridging aloft into the state. At
this time, will expect the return to a more familiar pattern of main-
ly daytime storms with the sea breeze. Temperatures will remain warm
with highs in the upper 80s to lower 90s through the week. 41

[Ptarmigan]

There are more thunderstorms flaring up in Texas.
https://radar.weather.gov/region/southplains/standard

[DoctorMu]

Heavy rain at the CLL airport. Not a drop here. It's getting darker, though...maybe the cell drifts this way?

[Stratton20]

Im expecting those storms to likely weaken as they drift westward, still looks like a pretty stable environment over most of se texas

[Cpv17]

Nothing but a trace here last night and crickets today. Hopefully it’s my turn tomorrow.

[Stratton20]

Poof, those storms hit a wall and died

[Cpv17]

Poof, those storms hit a wall and died

Yeah you pretty much called it. Figures.

Hopefully it rains here soon cuz we haven’t had anything here in about 3 weeks.

[Stratton20]

Cpv17 hope yall can get some rain soon, boy that 18z gfs run was nasty, mega death ridge

[jasons2k]

2.15” from last night.

[tireman4]

00
FXUS64 KHGX 051137
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
637 AM CDT Mon Jun 5 2023

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Tuesday Night)
Issued at 426 AM CDT Mon Jun 5 2023

While activity has been limited over SE TX so far overnight, there
have been isolated pop ups near the coast...along with some widely
scattered development trying to move in from the west. This fairly
quiet overnight/early morning does lend to the possibility of more
active widespread weather this afternoon (i.e. air mass not scour-
ed out). And as such, short term models are indicating decent con-
vective coverage starting late this morning on into this afternoon
with the best/higher POPs closer to the coast. Storms are expected
to decrease by this evening with the loss of daytime heating. Wash
rinse and repeat for tomorrow as all the larger scale features re-
main in place. Highs to range from the mid to upper 80s for today/
tomorrow...with lows in the 60s to around 70. 41

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through Sunday)
Issued at 426 AM CDT Mon Jun 5 2023

Somewhat active wx pattern should settle down a bit as we head
into the second half of the work week as the stubborn upper trof
axis is nudged eastward by some ridging to our west. Though rain
chances won`t exactly go away, increasing heights & subsidence
should make things a bit more difficult to initiate. That said,
we`ll also remain in a northwest flow aloft into the weekend and
subject to any disturbances that might be embedded in it...any/all
of which can`t be accurately forecast at this juncture. As such,
will keep slight chance POPs in the fcst as a place holder.

Another thing of note will be the increasing temps. With forecast
surface ridging setting up in the nw Gulf (and eventually ncntl
Gulf), we`ll likely have a sw component in the llvl flow...which
is typically favorable for some hot temps. Not heat advsy hot, but
readings topping out in the mid 90s aren`t out of the question
late in the week. 47

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 636 AM CDT Mon Jun 5 2023

Scattered activity is starting to develop and move into the northern
parts of the CWA this morning. But, will expect this round of storms
to dissipate by mid to late morning. Lingering boundaries from these
storms along with daytime heating and the seabreeze could make for a
challenging day in terms of convection. Did keep with the mention of
just VCTS for most terminals for this afternoon at this time...fully
expecting TEMPO groups later as development begins (again)/expands.
Activity should decrease by this evening (as per the loss of daytime
heating). Some patchy fog possible overnight (depending on where the
heavier rains fall) with a repeat of this pattern rainy tomorrow. 41

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 426 AM CDT Mon Jun 5 2023

Expect periods of unsettled weather into midweek as some upper level
disturbances pass overhead. Outside of any showers or thunderstorms,
light winds and low seas should persist. Wind directions should
generally follow a landbreeze/seabreeze cycle, then a slightly
more prevalent sw/s flow toward the end of the week. 47

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 87 66 86 68 / 30 20 30 10
Houston (IAH) 88 69 87 69 / 70 20 40 10
Galveston (GLS) 84 74 84 76 / 30 30 50 20

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...41
LONG TERM....47
AVIATION...41
MARINE...47

[JuneEl]

Will the eruption of the volcano near Mexico City
Affect our weather or possibly flights?

[tireman4]

Be careful today. The WPC has highlighted our area for "potentially" heavy rainfall.....

[Cpv17]

Be careful today. The WPC has highlighted our area for "potentially" heavy rainfall.....

Color me unimpressed with the current radar presentation. Nothing but small isolated popups. Doesn’t seem to be enough sun out today to destabilize the atmosphere. At least not here. Lots of overcast skies. I’m down in Bay City right now, though. Maybe it’s different elsewhere.

[user:null]

Cpv17 hope yall can get some rain soon, boy that 18z gfs run was nasty, mega death ridge

The two subsequent runs were even more brutal (at least, regarding temps across the state). But the 12z, as of now, has toned things down quite a bit.

Also, the heat ridge evolution in both the 6z and 12z today were more ideal: it shifts north enough to put Texas/Southern US in easterlies. More of that please.

[Cromagnum]

Dark every direction but nothing at the casa.

[DoctorMu]

Dark every direction but nothing at the casa.

Same here. Rain at the airport (CLL) and the cell just blew up, but nothing IMBY. Right in the gap now between 2 cells per Wundermap. Quite a bit of thunder, though. At least it's cloudy.