June 2023

[DoctorMu]

nm

[DoctorMu]

I see mid 90’s with this heat ridge but nothing well above normal, good news is it doesnt look to sit over the state for weeks

We have no evidence of that, just a guess based on previous El Ninos, which have a weak summer effect. Mid 90s is 4-5 degrees above normal for mid-June.

We'll see. fingers crossed for more westerlies, even NW flow.

[Stratton20]

DoctorMu the Op GFS does break it down eventually, stronger than normal westerlies could provide more rain opportunities this summer but also could make this hurricane season interesting

[jasons2k]

Meh. My high today was already 99

The rain cometh

[DoctorMu]

DoctorMu the Op GFS does break it down eventually, stronger than normal westerlies could provide more rain opportunities this summer but also could make this hurricane season interesting

Assuming the SJT doesn't lift over the ridge, those westerlies would shear off the tops of tropical systems, making them weaksauce but good widespread rainmakers. I think that could be how we get the most rain between June 15 and late August in CLL. Houston could see seabreeze showers during the summer if the ridge center stays west or north.

[Stratton20]

Levi Cowan came out with a fantastic hurricane video the other day, says their are some interesting and unusual factors that could lead to a busy season despite el nino strengthening, this may not be an ordinary el nino hurricane season

[DoctorMu]

The shear would affect the strength of tropical systems and hurricane wind speed more than the number of tropical systems. I would expect another busy season.

[don]

Storms developing.

caynvas.png

[DoctorMu]

I usually expect these to fall apart. But no outflow detected and the cell is about 10 miles NW of here. It could be a gully washer. Maybe some small hail.

: Severe Thunderstorm Warning
Alert:
The National Weather Service in League City has issued a

* Severe Thunderstorm Warning for...
Central Brazos County in southeastern Texas...

* Until 1130 PM CDT.

* At 1100 PM CDT, a severe thunderstorm was located near Bryan
Utilities Lake, or near Bryan, moving southeast at 20 mph.
HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and quarter size hail.
SOURCE...Radar indicated.
IMPACT...Hail damage to vehicles is expected. Expect wind damage
to roofs, siding, and trees.

* Locations impacted include...
College Station, Bryan, Kurten, Wixon Valley, Kyle Field, Bryan
Utilities Lake and Wellborn.
HAIL THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX HAIL SIZE...1.00 IN
WIND THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX WIND GUST...60 MPH
Instructions: For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a building.
Target Area:
Brazos

[DoctorMu]

There's some outflow - about 45 mph gusts.

[Rip76]

Where the heck did this come from?

[jasons2k]

Severe thunderstorm warning here now:

[DoctorMu]

Where the heck did this come from?

Two cells merged. It escalated quickly and held together. It's nice to see some rain.

[Stratton20]

Getting slammed here in katy

[don]

It's pouring here. Nice MCS moving through Next few days may be stormy on and off.

can8vas.png

[jasons2k]

Pouring. Nothing severe though.

[don]

A lot of persistent wind right now with these storms. And the rainfall is torrential my street is almost about to flood.

[Stratton20]

Im thinking this MCS may work over the atmosphere pretty good, may not see much in the way of new development until probably tommorow evening of so

[Cpv17]

Nothing but a sprinkle over here.

[davidiowx]

Nothing but a sprinkle over here.

Dang that sucks! I got 2.3” IMBY. The highest totals I’ve seen for the event appear to be in the Pecan Grove/Harvest Green area