May 2023

[Stratton20]

The 18z RGEM has a band of 6-10 inches in some of our western counties tomorrow fwiw

[Cpv17]

We need to keep an eye on this persistent band. This is the pattern I was warning about a few days ago. This inflow is setting-up right over us.

Yep several of the mesoscale models have waves of storms training over the same areas through the day tomorrow.Another flood watch may need to be issued.

The RGEM model definitely has my attention.

[don]

The FV3 model has more than 14 inches in portions of Wharton and Colorado counties.(FWIW) It will be interesting to see what the 0Z runs show.

Screenshot 2023-05-13 at 20-23-00 Models HRW WRF-ARW — Pivotal Weather.png

Screenshot 2023-05-13 at 20-22-25 Models RDPS — Pivotal Weather.png

Screenshot 2023-05-13 at 20-21-58 Models HRW FV3 — Pivotal Weather.png

[tireman4]

A huge swath of rain making its way toward the Humble area

[jasons2k]

Just emptied another 1.72”

More coming folks

[Stratton20]

00z FV3 is significantly drier than its 12z run
00z HRRR is unimpressive as well

[weatherguy425]

00z FV3 is significantly drier than its 12z run
00z HRRR is unimpressive as well

A tricky forecast, no doubt. FV3 also not handling evening convection the best. HRRR may not be extreme, but a solid 1"-3" through tomorrow afternoon. The 00Z NAM is the wettest run of the evening (so far) with persistent banding setting up. It also initialized fairly well. We'll see.

[Iceresistance]

I didn't post much recently, May 11th was a bit scary. I made a video for it.

https://youtu.be/hQ6iCv3iQbs

Crazy lightning. Thanks for sharing.

YW, I did have to go below ground for a little bit from the Supercells that came from the west.

Tried to record today, but the lightning proved itself finicky again...

[Stratton20]

00z WRF ARW2 has a band of 9-12 inches while the 00z RGEM has a band of 6-10 inches over parts of se texas fwiw

[don]

Yep here are the two WRF models and the RGEM.

Screenshot 2023-05-13 at 22-58-55 Models HRW WRF-ARW — Pivotal Weather.png

Screenshot 2023-05-13 at 22-58-35 Models HRW WRF-NSSL — Pivotal Weather.png

Screenshot 2023-05-13 at 23-01-16 Models RDPS — Pivotal Weather.png

[869MB]

What jumps out at me with some of the latest mesoscale models forecasted 48hr QPF totals is the low accumulations over Central TX, South Central TX, and The TX Big Bend areas…The same areas that were forecasted to receive some fairly healthy rainfall amounts earlier in the week and just a day or two ago.

[Cpv17]

What jumps out at me with some of the latest mesoscale models forecasted 48hr QPF totals is the low accumulations over Central TX, South Central TX, and The TX Big Bend areas…The same areas that were forecasted to receive some fairly healthy rainfall amounts earlier in the week and just a day or two ago.

I was just about to post something very similar to this.

[Stratton20]

Central and west texas might get completely shafted by this event, man I hope that doesnt happen for them

[jasons2k]

Watch the leftover outflow…

[jasons2k]

To clarify, we have new storms behind it.

[Texashawk]

Man, that radar is lighting up quick in Fort Bend and parts west….

[don]

The HRRR has gotten more aggressive also.

qpf_acc-imp.us_sc (2).png

[Stratton20]

05z HRRR is even more aggressive than that run, definitely interesting

[don]

I think HGX may add a few counties to the flood watch in the morning.

[Cpv17]

Damn, Matagorda County getting hit hard right now. Looks like it’s headed towards me.