Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0238
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
334 PM EDT Mon May 08 2023
Areas affected...Southeast TX...West-Central to Southwest LA
Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible
Valid 081933Z - 090133Z
SUMMARY...A cluster of heavy showers and thunderstorms will be
capable of growing upscale across portions of southeast TX over
the next few hours. Slow-moving cells and localized training will
favor some potential for flash flooding.
DISCUSSION...The latest radar imagery shows a relatively
small-scale axis of heavy showers and thunderstorms developing and
expanding in coverage to the northeast of the Houston metropolitan
area. The activity is forming around the southeast flank of a
shortwave/MCV over northeast TX. The airmass is strongly unstable
and quite moist with MLCAPE values of 2500 to 3000 J/kg and PWs of
1.8 to 2.0 inches.
Rainfall rates will be capable of being extremely heavy given this
combination of moisture and instability, and the latest GOES-16 IR
satellite trends continue to show convective cloud top cooling
with evidence of additional areas of showers and thunderstorms
beginning to develop more regionally across the coastal plain.
A few members of the 12Z HREF, and several runs of the HRRR
guidance has been insisting on there being some relatively
organized and slow-moving convection developing across areas of
southeast TX this afternoon and into the early evening hours as
the aforementioned shortwave energy lifts into the Arklatex
region. The southwest flank of any of the convective clusters that
do evolve will need to be closely monitored given the persistence
of very moist/unstable low-level flow up across the southeast TX
coastal plain. Some back-building and training of convection may
result with especially the cluster of cells that has set up
northeast of Houston and to the north of Beaumont. The HRRR
guidance has been insisting on some very heavy rainfall totals
locally across this region.
Some upscale convective growth in general should continue over the
next few hours, and it is possible that with sufficient cold pool
evolution, the convection may potentially brush into areas of
southwest LA later this afternoon or early this evening.
Some rainfall rates of as much as 2 to 3 inches/hour, and
localized storm totals of 4 to 6 inches will be possible through
00Z, and that certainly will favor some concerns for flash
flooding. This will especially be the case if any of these totals
were to get into the more urbanized areas across the coastal
plain. Will continue to closely monitor.
May 2023
Cold pool has now pushed the storms south towards I-10.With an outflow boundary moving southwest.Storms may slowly congeal into a MCS.
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Last edited by don on Mon May 08, 2023 4:20 pm, edited 1 time in total.
Harris County and points south got goose-egged so far. We'll see what happens later.
Small axis showers are easing ENE just south of CLL and migrating south to Beaumont.
I better head to the store and out of the office soon.
I better head to the store and out of the office soon.
So far, just teases for me. Dark skies with occasional distant thunder for a couple of hours now but no rain yet. Everything headed this way earlier evaporated. Outflow incoming within the next hour. We’ll see if it does anything on the flip.
I see the Beamont outflow pushing SW. I never know when these will cause storms to pop as they pass, or whether they stabilize and shut down everything.
It looks like Jason is about to get in on the action.
Still raining pretty hard in Beaumont with look lime another round moving into my area. 2” so far. Fell so fast roads are flooding. We were in a tornado warning so hopefully everything stays calmer going forward. Hope everyone gets a little rain this week. Unfortunately probably someone will get too much. Beaumont doesn't need anymore new records or titles. Lol
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Mike
Beaumont, TX
(IH-10 & College Street)
Beaumont, TX
(IH-10 & College Street)
Beaumont right now
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Mike
Beaumont, TX
(IH-10 & College Street)
Beaumont, TX
(IH-10 & College Street)
Beaumont right now (again)
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Last edited by djmike on Mon May 08, 2023 5:33 pm, edited 1 time in total.
Mike
Beaumont, TX
(IH-10 & College Street)
Beaumont, TX
(IH-10 & College Street)
Trifecta over La Grange. Flash flood warning, severe thunderstorm warning, and a tornado warning all at once. Nuts!
7” Kountze area.
Mike
Beaumont, TX
(IH-10 & College Street)
Beaumont, TX
(IH-10 & College Street)
And…
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Stratton20
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If the 18z GFS verifies then if you have any travel plans to central texas, i would likely find an alternative place to go, 10-15 inches for central texas lol jeez
Northern and northwestern Harris County is getting walloped!
Hail in the Woodlands
Storms moving into Harris county.
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Severe Thunderstorm Warning
TXC201-339-082330-
/O.NEW.KHGX.SV.W.0091.230508T2252Z-230508T2330Z/
BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Warning
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
552 PM CDT Mon May 8 2023
The National Weather Service in League City has issued a
* Severe Thunderstorm Warning for...
Southwestern Montgomery County in southeastern Texas...
Northwestern Harris County in southeastern Texas...
* Until 630 PM CDT.
* At 552 PM CDT, a severe thunderstorm was located near Hooks
Airport, or near Tomball, and is nearly stationary or sagging to
the south southwest. This storm may merge with a cell to its west
and briefly intensify.
HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and quarter size hail.
SOURCE...Radar indicated.
IMPACT...Hail damage to vehicles is expected. Expect wind damage
to roofs, siding, and trees.
* Locations impacted include...
Tomball, Pinehurst, The Woodlands, Spring, Oak Ridge North,
Shenandoah, Stagecoach, The Woodlands Pavillion, Hooks Airport,
Chateau Woods, Splashtown, Willowbrook and Cypress.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.
Large hail and damaging winds and continuous cloud to ground
lightning is occurring with this storm. Move indoors immediately.
Lightning is one of nature`s leading killers. Remember, if you can
hear thunder, you are close enough to be struck by lightning.
&&
LAT...LON 3017 9575 3019 9541 3010 9538 2994 9545
2997 9579
TIME...MOT...LOC 2252Z 019DEG 4KT 3010 9556
HAIL THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX HAIL SIZE...1.00 IN
WIND THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX WIND GUST...60 MPH
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Now I’m under a flood advisory and a severe thunderstorm warning. We were going out for Sushi but the sky was turning green and I told my wife, we need to turn around and wait this out for awhile.
Been back almost 10mins and that warning popped up.
Been back almost 10mins and that warning popped up.
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