April 2023

[DoctorMu]

FROPA late this week looks more potent than expected. It may be the last cool weekend. Enjoy!

As usual, I don't believe there will be much rain here, but severe weather north and east (broken record) - NE TX, AR, MS, MO, IA. The usual. More hail than tornadoes probably - more straight line winds.

Friday's rain changes *could* be upgraded, but don't expect it.

[DoctorMu]

Cooler weather, maybe dry to normal precip. ahead.

[Stratton20]

Hope yall enjoy this upcoming front, because that front is likely the last shot of cooler weather that we have for the next 5 months or so

[DoctorMu]

Hope yall enjoy this upcoming front, because that front is likely the last shot of cooler weather that we have for the next 5 months or so

There's another FROPA progged at the end of the month...but that's really it!

Fast forward to SEC football season and October!

[davidiowx]

And it’s dumping here this morning. Quite a pleasant surprise

[JuneEl]

Very surprising rain and thunder to wake up to in Katy. Wondering what caused this.

[don]

Nice thunderstorm moving in this morning.

[Cpv17]

Nice thunderstorm moving in this morning.

Check out the SPC for Friday. Looks interesting.

[Cromagnum]

Lots of booming and I saw a nice red blob headed my way. Fast forward 30 minutes and it's dead just as it was about to get here.

[don]

Nice thunderstorm moving in this morning.

Check out the SPC for Friday. Looks interesting.

Yes it does look interesting.

spcd4prob.us_sc.png

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0358 AM CDT Tue Apr 18 2023

Valid 211200Z - 261200Z

...DISCUSSION...
...Friday/Day 4...
An upper-level trough will move into the southern Plains on Friday,
as a cold front advances southeastward into the western Gulf Coast
states. Ahead of the front, surface dewpoints from 65 to 70 F, will
contribute to moderate destabilization by midday. Thunderstorms will
likely develop along the front during the afternoon, with several
clusters or line segments moving east-southeastward across southeast
Texas, southwest Louisiana and the lower Mississippi Valley.
Moderate instability and 40 to 50 knots of deep-layer shear,
combined with steep lapse rates, may result in a wind-damage threat
with the stronger multicells. Supercells with large hail will also
be possible, but this will depend upon if cells can remain discrete.
Any severe threat will likely be greatest during the late afternoon
and early evening, when low-level lapse rates will be the steepest.

[jasons2k]

Lots of booming and I saw a nice red blob headed my way. Fast forward 30 minutes and it's dead just as it was about to get here.

Same here. Every cell is playing dodgeball here so far!!

[jasons2k]

Update from Jeff:

Showers and thunderstorms will be possible at times today-Friday.

Returning moisture along with a mid level disturbance in the westerly flow aloft has resulted in scattered showers and a few thunderstorms this morning over the region. This disturbance will continue eastward today with isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms off and on through the mid afternoon hours before decreasing into the evening. Moisture will continue to increase into Wednesday and Thursday with southerly winds in place. Models show additional disturbances moving out of Mexico in the WSW/SW flow aloft and across the region at times and these could result in scattered showers and thunderstorms. It is getting to be that time of year where the right amount of moisture and heat just need a little bit of lift (a weak disturbance) and thunderstorms can result. While there is not strong signal for a higher period of rainfall either Wednesday or Thursday, there is a least a chance of a shower or thunderstorm at most any time through the period.

Thursday afternoon begins the next uptick in rain chances as a frontal boundary approaches the area. Moisture values surge into the afternoon hours on Thursday and a stronger disturbance looks to move across the area…will go with at least 40% chances on Thursday afternoon north of I-10 and some of these storms could be on the strong side. Higher rain chances continue into Friday with the passage of the next cold front. Air mass behind this front is actually fairly cool for this time of year and a sharp drop in temperatures with the front Friday afternoon and evening can be expected along with showers and thunderstorms. Upcoming weekend looks “cool” by mid April standards with lows in the 40’s and highs in the 60’s and a dry airmass in place. These temperatures will be running 15-20 degrees below normal for mid April.

While there will be chances of showers and thunderstorms through Friday, overall rainfall amounts will likely average between .25-.75 of an inch at any one location with some higher totals of 1-2 inches. There will be a chance of strong to severe thunderstorms with large hail and damaging winds on Thursday afternoon and evening…mainly north of I-10.

Jeff Lindner
Director Hydrologic Operations Division/Meteorologist
Harris County Flood Control District
9900 Northwest Freeway | Houston, Texas 77092
346-286-4000 (main) | 346-286-4165 (direct) | 281-924-2091 (cell)
jeff.lindner@hcfcd.org | Twitter: @jefflindner1

[DoctorMu]

We had about 0.1 in about 9 am. Better than nothing. The briefest of showers.

[jasons2k]

I learned something new today from ChatGPT:

The Harold Taft Award is a prestigious honor given by the National Weather Association (NWA) to individuals who have made outstanding contributions to the field of operational meteorology. The award is named after Harold Taft, a legendary meteorologist and weather forecaster who worked in Texas for more than 40 years and was known for his accurate predictions of severe weather events, particularly tornadoes.

The award was first presented in 1992, the year after Taft's death, and it has since become one of the most prestigious honors in the field of meteorology. Recipients of the award are chosen by a committee of meteorologists and weather experts based on their contributions to operational meteorology, which includes research, forecasting, public service, and education.

The Harold Taft Award is presented each year at the NWA's annual meeting, which brings together meteorologists, weather forecasters, and other professionals in the field of meteorology. The award is intended to honor individuals who have made a significant impact on the science of weather forecasting and who have inspired others to pursue careers in the field.

Over the years, the Harold Taft Award has been presented to many distinguished meteorologists and weather experts, including renowned storm chaser Tim Samaras, hurricane hunter pilots Maj. Gen. Joesph K. Mcmullen and Lt. Col. William S. Jones, and National Weather Service meteorologist Dr. David Johnson. The award is a testament to the contributions made by these individuals to the field of operational meteorology, and it serves as an inspiration to future generations of meteorologists and weather forecasters.

[don]

Day 3 slight risk over SE Texas.NAM is showing supercells over the area with a MCS fwiw.Wouldn't be surprised to see an enhanced risk issued with CAPE values being so high.

spcd3prob.us_sc.png

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0231 AM CDT Wed Apr 19 2023

Valid 211200Z - 221200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE TEXAS COASTAL PLAIN NORTHEASTWARD INTO WESTERN LOUISIANA...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms associated with wind damage and hail will be possible
on Friday across parts the middle and upper Texas Coastal Plain into
western Louisiana.

...Middle to Upper Texas Coast/Louisiana/Lower Mississippi Valley...

An upper-level trough will move through the Great Plains on Friday,
as a cold front advances southeastward through the southern Plains
and Ark-La-Tex. Ahead of the front, surface dewpoints in the mid to
upper 60s F will likely contribute to moderate destabilization
across parts of the Texas Coastal Plain into western Louisiana. The
distribution of instability will depend on the position of outflow
boundaries from the previous night. Thunderstorms could be ongoing
in the morning, but as surface temperatures warm, continued storm
development is expected during the afternoon, especially along
outflow boundaries.

Model forecasts during the afternoon suggest that the strongest
instability could be to the west of the Houston area, where MLCAPE
could reach near 3500 J/kg. In addition, 0-6 km shear is forecast to
be near 40 knots, suggesting that supercells will be possible.
700-500 mb lapse rates near 7.5 C/km, evident on forecast soundings,
would support large hail formation with the stronger updrafts. Steep
low-level lapse rates would also promote a wind damage potential
with supercells, and also along the leading edge of multicell line
segments.

[tireman4]

000
FXUS64 KHGX 190958
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
458 AM CDT Wed Apr 19 2023

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Thursday Night)
Issued at 458 AM CDT Wed Apr 19 2023

Warm/humid weather will continue across SE TX today with perhaps the
"best" chances of isolated activity over our western counties (most-
ly west of a College Station to Bay City line) through the afternoon
given the low (but not zero) chance of another embedded shortwave in
southern stream jet aloft. Even with the decent onshore flow persist-
ng and partly sunny skies, highs will warm into the lower 80s today.
Lows tonight should also be a few degrees warmer (upper 60s to lower
70s) with mostly cloudy skies and slightly elevated winds lingering.

The main forecast issues for this part of the short term forecast is
going to be on Thur as the large scale upper pattern features a deep
elongated (slightly negatively tilted?) trough developing across the
central CONUS. At the surface...progged cyclogenesis over the lee of
the Rockies will develop a low and an associated cold front over the
Central Plains. Additionally, a warm front is progged to lift north-
ward from the TX coast during the day. So, all of this is helping to
set the stage for the potential of strong to severe storms moving in
to the CWA by Thurs afternoon into early Fri morning. Models are in-
dicating decent instability and deep layer shear...especially across
areas north of I-10. SPC`s Day 2 outlook has a Slight Risk for loca-
tions from the Brazos Valley to the Pineywoods...a Marginal Risk for
much of the rest of the CWA. The main severe weather threats look to
be large hail and damaging winds. A Marginal Risk of Excessive Rain-
fall (from WPC) is also in the forecast for the northern portions of
our area on Thurs. 41

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday through Tuesday)
Issued at 458 AM CDT Wed Apr 19 2023

Showers and thunderstorms will remain in the forecast on Friday as
the cold front works its way into and through the area. Expected daytime
heating (highs mostly in the 80s) and increasing instability ahead of
the front could lead to some strong/severe thunderstorms (main threat
damaging winds and large hail with a slight risk covering much of the
area) and locally heavy rainfall (marginal risk mainly across the eastern
half of the area). Rains will come to an end as the evening and overnight
hours progress and the front moves off the coast and further offshore.
Initially breezy/gusty north winds behind the front will weaken overnight,
and look for temperatures to cool down into an upper 40s to mid 50s
range. Saturday looks quiet with mainly sunny skies and highs in the
70s. Look for increasing clouds Saturday night (lows in an upper 40s
to mid 50s range again) and Sunday (highs mainly in the upper 60s to
low 70s). Low rain chances come back into the forecast beginning on
Sunday and continue on-again off-again through Tuesday as an onshore
flow eventually returns and brings increasing moisture levels back to
the area. Look for next week`s lows in the 50s Monday to the 60s Tuesday
and next week`s highs in the 70s Monday to the 80s Tuesday. 42

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAF Amendment)
Issued at 458 AM CDT Wed Apr 19 2023

Not expecting a lot of changes with the next (12Z) TAF package as a
warm/humid air mass remains in place across the region. Patchy MVFR
ceiling this morning should transition to BKN VFR ceilings this af-
ternoon. Elevated S/SE winds (10-15kts) to prevail with gusts rang-
ing from 20-25kts. Winds should decouple by this evening but with a
decent onshore flow just above the surface progged to persist...MVFR
CIGS could patchy once again. Will not add any mentions of precipi-
tation at this time. 41

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 458 AM CDT Wed Apr 19 2023

Will carry caution flags for today (winds and seas have come down since
yesterday) but will monitor for upgrading to possible advisories. The
mainly moderate onshore flow and elevated seas are expected to persist
through Friday with mainly caution flags a possibility. Thursday night
through Friday evening will be the next best chance of showers and
thunderstorms as a cold front works its way through the area. Moderate
to occasionally strong north then northeast then east winds and elevated
seas will prevail over the weekend in the wake of the front. Caution
flags are likely, and advisories might be needed. 42

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 81 67 81 67 / 20 10 60 50
Houston (IAH) 83 69 82 69 / 10 10 30 40
Galveston (GLS) 78 72 79 71 / 10 10 10 40

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...High Rip Current Risk through this evening for TXZ436>439.

GM...Small Craft Should Exercise Caution through this evening for
GMZ330-335-350-355-370-375.

&&

$$

[MH5]

Day 3 slight risk over SE Texas.
spcd3prob.us_sc.png

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0231 AM CDT Wed Apr 19 2023

Valid 211200Z - 221200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE TEXAS COASTAL PLAIN NORTHEASTWARD INTO WESTERN LOUISIANA...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms associated with wind damage and hail will be possible
on Friday across parts the middle and upper Texas Coastal Plain into
western Louisiana.

...Middle to Upper Texas Coast/Louisiana/Lower Mississippi Valley...

An upper-level trough will move through the Great Plains on Friday,
as a cold front advances southeastward through the southern Plains
and Ark-La-Tex. Ahead of the front, surface dewpoints in the mid to
upper 60s F will likely contribute to moderate destabilization
across parts of the Texas Coastal Plain into western Louisiana. The
distribution of instability will depend on the position of outflow
boundaries from the previous night. Thunderstorms could be ongoing
in the morning, but as surface temperatures warm, continued storm
development is expected during the afternoon, especially along
outflow boundaries.

Model forecasts during the afternoon suggest that the strongest
instability could be to the west of the Houston area, where MLCAPE
could reach near 3500 J/kg. In addition, 0-6 km shear is forecast to
be near 40 knots, suggesting that supercells will be possible.
700-500 mb lapse rates near 7.5 C/km, evident on forecast soundings,
would support large hail formation with the stronger updrafts. Steep
low-level lapse rates would also promote a wind damage potential
with supercells, and also along the leading edge of multicell line
segments.

12Z HRRR run says no dice for most of Harris Co and points west at least with the initial wave. East into Louisiana and South (along the coast) get all the love. Interesting seeing the two solutions being so different. Either way, appears the ingredients are there for a lot of us to get some action and sounds like the expectation is that new storms will fire throughout the day.

[don]

12Z HRRR run says no dice for most of Harris Co and points west at least with the initial wave. East into Louisiana and South (along the coast) get all the love. Interesting seeing the two solutions being so different. Either way, appears the ingredients are there for a lot of us to get some action and sounds like the expectation is that new storms will fire throughout the day.

Its pretty normal for the mesoscale models to show varying solutions in this range,we're in the "long range" period when it comes to the mesoscale models.Once were within 24 hours there should be more confidence on how thing's may transpire.

[don]

Some of the mesoscale models and there various solutions.

Screenshot 2023-04-19 at 10-04-32 Models HRW WRF-ARW — Pivotal Weather.png

Screenshot 2023-04-19 at 09-51-28 Models HRW WRF-NSSL — Pivotal Weather.png

Screenshot 2023-04-19 at 09-45-33 Models HRRR — Pivotal Weather.png

Screenshot 2023-04-19 at 09-44-38 Models HRW FV3 — Pivotal Weather.png

[Cromagnum]

Seen this before. Not getting hopes up.