Yeah, and the parameters are already higher than expected, this may get really nasty.captainbarbossa19 wrote: ↑Sun Mar 26, 2023 2:41 pmSupercell has a well-defined WER and is veering right. Rotation is getting better defined too. This thing is about to drop something.
March 2023
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Iceresistance
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captainbarbossa19
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I’ve said this 100x on this forum.
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Stratton20
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i suspect a lack of forcing is the culprit behind the radar being so dead today across our are
Are you able to embed that Tweet on the forum for everyone who don’t have a Twitter account so they can see exactly what he is expressing in regards to the lack of activity over our area despite the favorable severe weather parameters?
Well ****, the DP has slid upward here closing on 70°F. Yesterday was a beauty. This morning was very nice as well.
0z mesoscale models have come in much wetter tomorrow night,with a disturbance riding the frontal boundary along the i-10 corridor.If the trends continue I wouldn't be surprised if the area gets upgraded to a slight risk tomorrow from the SPC with that surface low developing over the area triggering possibly supercells.
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Will believe it when I see it happening.
Update from Jeff:
Increasing chances of showers and thunderstorms this evening into Tuesday morning.
A slow moving frontal boundary will approach from the north today, while a weak diffuse boundary over the NW Gulf of Mexico backs northward toward the I-10 corridor. Fog and low clouds will slowly lift and break through the morning hours allowing solar insolation to push temperatures into the low to mid 80’s by mid afternoon. Air mass will become increasingly unstable through the afternoon hours as the weak front approaches from the north. Additionally, a weak upper level disturbance will move out of NC MX and across SC TX this afternoon and into SE TX this evening helping to aid lift along the front.
High resolution models show thunderstorms developing along the frontal boundary either side of the I-10 corridor early to mid this evening and lingering into much of the overnight hours while moving toward Galveston Bay and eventually the coast and Gulf waters. Given the instability that will be in place, a few of these storms could become severe with large hail being the primary threat. SPC has outlooked the entire area in a “marginal” (1 out of 5) threat for severe weather. Moisture levels will also be plentiful and given the slow moving nature of the front, some heavy rainfall will be possible. Overall, think activity will progress to the east and south fast enough to keep any urban flooding concerns to a minimum. WPC does have all of the area outlooked in “marginal” risk for flash flooding. Overall rainfall amounts of .25-.75 of an inch will be possible, with isolated higher totals under any cell training of 1-3 inches in a few hours.
Front and majority of the heavier activity will move into the coastal waters Tuesday morning, but messy upper level flow out of the SW will likely maintain mid and upper level moisture stream across the top of the “cooler” air mass with lingering clouds. Another disturbance will approach late Tuesday into early Wednesday and may produce a few showers near Matagorda Bay, but will have to see exactly how much low level dry air moves into the area on Tuesday to determine if rain chances may need to be increased slightly and further northward early Wednesday.
Late week will feature a return to increasing southerly winds, warm, and muggy conditions as the next strong storm system approaches the US central plains. It appears that this system will pass well north of SE TX, but the tail end of the front may reach the area Friday into Saturday with isolated to scattered showers.
Severe Weather Outlook (Today):
Jeff Lindner
Director Hydrologic Operations Division/Meteorologist
Harris County Flood Control District
9900 Northwest Freeway | Houston, Texas 77092
346-286-4000 (main) | 346-286-4165 (direct) | 281-924-2091 (cell)
jeff.lindner@hcfcd.org | Twitter: @jefflindner1
Increasing chances of showers and thunderstorms this evening into Tuesday morning.
A slow moving frontal boundary will approach from the north today, while a weak diffuse boundary over the NW Gulf of Mexico backs northward toward the I-10 corridor. Fog and low clouds will slowly lift and break through the morning hours allowing solar insolation to push temperatures into the low to mid 80’s by mid afternoon. Air mass will become increasingly unstable through the afternoon hours as the weak front approaches from the north. Additionally, a weak upper level disturbance will move out of NC MX and across SC TX this afternoon and into SE TX this evening helping to aid lift along the front.
High resolution models show thunderstorms developing along the frontal boundary either side of the I-10 corridor early to mid this evening and lingering into much of the overnight hours while moving toward Galveston Bay and eventually the coast and Gulf waters. Given the instability that will be in place, a few of these storms could become severe with large hail being the primary threat. SPC has outlooked the entire area in a “marginal” (1 out of 5) threat for severe weather. Moisture levels will also be plentiful and given the slow moving nature of the front, some heavy rainfall will be possible. Overall, think activity will progress to the east and south fast enough to keep any urban flooding concerns to a minimum. WPC does have all of the area outlooked in “marginal” risk for flash flooding. Overall rainfall amounts of .25-.75 of an inch will be possible, with isolated higher totals under any cell training of 1-3 inches in a few hours.
Front and majority of the heavier activity will move into the coastal waters Tuesday morning, but messy upper level flow out of the SW will likely maintain mid and upper level moisture stream across the top of the “cooler” air mass with lingering clouds. Another disturbance will approach late Tuesday into early Wednesday and may produce a few showers near Matagorda Bay, but will have to see exactly how much low level dry air moves into the area on Tuesday to determine if rain chances may need to be increased slightly and further northward early Wednesday.
Late week will feature a return to increasing southerly winds, warm, and muggy conditions as the next strong storm system approaches the US central plains. It appears that this system will pass well north of SE TX, but the tail end of the front may reach the area Friday into Saturday with isolated to scattered showers.
Severe Weather Outlook (Today):
Jeff Lindner
Director Hydrologic Operations Division/Meteorologist
Harris County Flood Control District
9900 Northwest Freeway | Houston, Texas 77092
346-286-4000 (main) | 346-286-4165 (direct) | 281-924-2091 (cell)
jeff.lindner@hcfcd.org | Twitter: @jefflindner1
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Stratton20
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- Location: College Station, Texas
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12z Models are rather unimpressive with rain chances this week
We're a bit north of the action, but that is my reaction.
This area through the HIll Country over the last 3 decades is easing toward more savannah/humid desert conditions (with the occasional flood) while LA/MS/AL/TN are the New Tornado Alley.
Our grass is starting to dry out. I hate to run the sprinklers this early, but...Stratton20 wrote: ↑Mon Mar 27, 2023 12:28 pm 12z Models are rather unimpressive with rain chances this week
Before I complain too much, we had a wind shift to the N and the air is pleasant with DPs in the 50s for now.
A few miles makes a huge difference. It’s lush and moist here, at least for now.DoctorMu wrote: ↑Mon Mar 27, 2023 1:40 pmOur grass is starting to dry out. I hate to run the sprinklers this early, but...Stratton20 wrote: ↑Mon Mar 27, 2023 12:28 pm 12z Models are rather unimpressive with rain chances this week
Before I complain too much, we had a wind shift to the N and the air is pleasant with DPs in the 50s for now.
The models were never impressive about this week though to begin with.This week is just a transitional period into a wetter pattern,with on and off showers and storms.Was never expecting a washout anytime this week.Stratton20 wrote: ↑Mon Mar 27, 2023 12:28 pm 12z Models are rather unimpressive with rain chances this week
It should be quiet most of the day,rain chances wont peak until late tonight and overnight,like the last system on St Patricks day.
Historically, the Hill Country was more savana-like in its appearance. It had more grasslands. All the cedar and mesquite came later with ranching.
Yep. I’ve been saying for a while now that we will be transitioning to a wetter pattern especially as we head into April.don wrote: ↑Mon Mar 27, 2023 3:07 pmThe models were never impressive about this week though to begin with.This week is just a transitional period into a wetter pattern,with on and off showers and storms.Was never expecting a washout anytime this week.Stratton20 wrote: ↑Mon Mar 27, 2023 12:28 pm 12z Models are rather unimpressive with rain chances this week
It should be quiet most of the day,rain chances wont peak until late tonight and overnight,like the last system on St Patricks day.
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tireman4
- Global Moderator
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- Location: Humble, Texas
- Contact:
00
FXUS64 KHGX 272352
AFDHGX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
652 PM CDT Mon Mar 27 2023
...New AVIATION...
.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Tuesday Night)
Issued at 251 PM CDT Mon Mar 27 2023
A fairly complex period is expected in the immediate term as the
gradual progression of a surface cold front as well as the approach
of midlevel shortwaves over the course of the overnight period will
lead to favorable conditions for showers and thunderstorms. There
remains a risk that some of these storms become strong to severe,
though this risk should remain confined to locations south of the I-
10 corridor where a narrow band of higher SB instability (~1500
J/kg) will persist well into the evening hours. This, combined with
fairly steady onshore moisture transport and 0-6km shear values
approaching 50 knots may support the development of isolated severe
storms. We also continue to monitor the potential for locally heavy
rainfall. Again, with fairly deep low-level moisture in place near
the immediate coast and the fairly slow progression of the surface
front, high-resolution models have indicated the potential for
training storms that could result in several inches of rain in some
locations. As a whole, however, we expect most locations along and
south of I-10 to pick up around 0.5-1.0 in of new rainfall with
isolated locations seeing locally higher amounts. Timing wise, the
greatest risk for strong storms is concentrated in the 2-6 AM time
frame, with precipitation shifting further offshore thereafter as
the boundary continues its southward progression. Given this, travel
conditions during the morning commute could be hazardous in some
locations and thus those planning travel should continue to monitor
the forecast.
Drier air works its way into the area following the departure of the
front, though the continued presence of mid/upper level moisture
should allow for fairly widespread cloud cover as this occurs. This,
along with CAA, will allow for slightly cooler highs tomorrow in the
mid/upper 70s. Conditions should feel markedly more pleasant outside
by the evening as surface dew points drop to the 40s to low 50s for
most locations. While skies will remain mostly cloudy to overcast
overnight, further cold advection will allow for lows to settle into
the 50s across a majority of the area.
Cady
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through Sunday)
Issued at 251 PM CDT Mon Mar 27 2023
Will retain the low rain chances in the forecast for Wednesday
(mainly in the morning) as a weak disturbance aloft moves across the
area. The northeast winds early in the day with become east to
southeast in the afternoon, and look for decreasing cloud cover too.
High temperatures are expected to be in an upper 60s to lower 70s
range. As high pressure continues moving off to the east, moderate
south to southeast winds can be expected for the rest of the week
along with gradually warming temperatures (lows in the 50s/60s
Wednesday night will be in the 60s/70s Thursday night, highs in
the 70s to around 80 Thursday will be in the 80s on Friday). Will
carry low mainly daytime rain chances for parts of the area on
Thursday (almost area wide) and Friday (mainly up north). Current
forecast has the next cold front sagging into the area late Friday
night through Saturday morning, and this boundary probably hangs
up near the coast or just offshore and eventually makes its way back
inland on Sunday. We`ll have slightly cooler overnight lows Friday
night and Saturday night (back to 50s/60s) and a warm Saturday and
Sunday (mainly 80s). For now, will carry mainly low rain chances over
the weekend with slightly higher and better coverage anticipated on
Saturday.
42
&&
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 641 PM CDT Mon Mar 27 2023
Mix of MVFR to VFR conditions tonight with light VRB winds. Areas
of patchy fog may result in periods of IFR vis/cigs for some
sites, in particular sites that are closer to the waters
(GLS/LBX/HOU) due to the added influence of sea fog. A cold front
will be pushing across SE Texas tonight into early Tue and will
result in periods of SH/TS. Strong TS are possible and may result
in strong gusty winds, frequent lightning, and heavy rainfall. The
front will push into the coastal waters early Tue morning, and
strong gusty northerly winds will develop in its wake. Skies will
gradually lift and scatter out Tue morning into Tue afternoon.
Winds will begin to relax Tue night, but may remain elevated for
the coastal locations.
24
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 251 PM CDT Mon Mar 27 2023
Sea fog will remain possible until a cold front and associated showers
and thunderstorms move through the area late tonight through early Tuesday
morning. Dense fog advisories might be needed. Moderate to strong north
to northeast winds and building seas will develop in the wake of the
front, then slowly weaken and decrease heading into Tuesday night and
Wednesday. Southeast winds resume late on Wednesday and gradually swing
around to the south at the end of the week. Caution flags are anticipated,
and advisories might be needed. Over the weekend, the next cold front
sags into the area then eventually works its way back inland. Lower
winds and lighter seas are anticipated.
42
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 59 71 53 70 / 30 10 10 20
Houston (IAH) 64 75 57 70 / 60 20 10 20
Galveston (GLS) 66 73 61 69 / 60 40 10 20
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM to 7 PM CDT Tuesday for GMZ330-
335-350-355-370-375.
&&
$$
FXUS64 KHGX 272352
AFDHGX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
652 PM CDT Mon Mar 27 2023
...New AVIATION...
.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Tuesday Night)
Issued at 251 PM CDT Mon Mar 27 2023
A fairly complex period is expected in the immediate term as the
gradual progression of a surface cold front as well as the approach
of midlevel shortwaves over the course of the overnight period will
lead to favorable conditions for showers and thunderstorms. There
remains a risk that some of these storms become strong to severe,
though this risk should remain confined to locations south of the I-
10 corridor where a narrow band of higher SB instability (~1500
J/kg) will persist well into the evening hours. This, combined with
fairly steady onshore moisture transport and 0-6km shear values
approaching 50 knots may support the development of isolated severe
storms. We also continue to monitor the potential for locally heavy
rainfall. Again, with fairly deep low-level moisture in place near
the immediate coast and the fairly slow progression of the surface
front, high-resolution models have indicated the potential for
training storms that could result in several inches of rain in some
locations. As a whole, however, we expect most locations along and
south of I-10 to pick up around 0.5-1.0 in of new rainfall with
isolated locations seeing locally higher amounts. Timing wise, the
greatest risk for strong storms is concentrated in the 2-6 AM time
frame, with precipitation shifting further offshore thereafter as
the boundary continues its southward progression. Given this, travel
conditions during the morning commute could be hazardous in some
locations and thus those planning travel should continue to monitor
the forecast.
Drier air works its way into the area following the departure of the
front, though the continued presence of mid/upper level moisture
should allow for fairly widespread cloud cover as this occurs. This,
along with CAA, will allow for slightly cooler highs tomorrow in the
mid/upper 70s. Conditions should feel markedly more pleasant outside
by the evening as surface dew points drop to the 40s to low 50s for
most locations. While skies will remain mostly cloudy to overcast
overnight, further cold advection will allow for lows to settle into
the 50s across a majority of the area.
Cady
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through Sunday)
Issued at 251 PM CDT Mon Mar 27 2023
Will retain the low rain chances in the forecast for Wednesday
(mainly in the morning) as a weak disturbance aloft moves across the
area. The northeast winds early in the day with become east to
southeast in the afternoon, and look for decreasing cloud cover too.
High temperatures are expected to be in an upper 60s to lower 70s
range. As high pressure continues moving off to the east, moderate
south to southeast winds can be expected for the rest of the week
along with gradually warming temperatures (lows in the 50s/60s
Wednesday night will be in the 60s/70s Thursday night, highs in
the 70s to around 80 Thursday will be in the 80s on Friday). Will
carry low mainly daytime rain chances for parts of the area on
Thursday (almost area wide) and Friday (mainly up north). Current
forecast has the next cold front sagging into the area late Friday
night through Saturday morning, and this boundary probably hangs
up near the coast or just offshore and eventually makes its way back
inland on Sunday. We`ll have slightly cooler overnight lows Friday
night and Saturday night (back to 50s/60s) and a warm Saturday and
Sunday (mainly 80s). For now, will carry mainly low rain chances over
the weekend with slightly higher and better coverage anticipated on
Saturday.
42
&&
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 641 PM CDT Mon Mar 27 2023
Mix of MVFR to VFR conditions tonight with light VRB winds. Areas
of patchy fog may result in periods of IFR vis/cigs for some
sites, in particular sites that are closer to the waters
(GLS/LBX/HOU) due to the added influence of sea fog. A cold front
will be pushing across SE Texas tonight into early Tue and will
result in periods of SH/TS. Strong TS are possible and may result
in strong gusty winds, frequent lightning, and heavy rainfall. The
front will push into the coastal waters early Tue morning, and
strong gusty northerly winds will develop in its wake. Skies will
gradually lift and scatter out Tue morning into Tue afternoon.
Winds will begin to relax Tue night, but may remain elevated for
the coastal locations.
24
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 251 PM CDT Mon Mar 27 2023
Sea fog will remain possible until a cold front and associated showers
and thunderstorms move through the area late tonight through early Tuesday
morning. Dense fog advisories might be needed. Moderate to strong north
to northeast winds and building seas will develop in the wake of the
front, then slowly weaken and decrease heading into Tuesday night and
Wednesday. Southeast winds resume late on Wednesday and gradually swing
around to the south at the end of the week. Caution flags are anticipated,
and advisories might be needed. Over the weekend, the next cold front
sags into the area then eventually works its way back inland. Lower
winds and lighter seas are anticipated.
42
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 59 71 53 70 / 30 10 10 20
Houston (IAH) 64 75 57 70 / 60 20 10 20
Galveston (GLS) 66 73 61 69 / 60 40 10 20
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM to 7 PM CDT Tuesday for GMZ330-
335-350-355-370-375.
&&
$$
-
Stratton20
- Posts: 5354
- Joined: Tue Feb 09, 2021 11:35 pm
- Location: College Station, Texas
- Contact:
Might see potentially our first 90 degree reading in about a week, NWS has upper 80’s for me next monday, absolutely putrid
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