March 2023

[jasons2k]

Already saw some June bugs tonight. Crazy.

[Cromagnum]

Already saw some June bugs tonight. Crazy.

Been seeing them for a few weeks now here.

[Stratton20]

had one land on my head tonight, i think i just about went nuts, i cant stand those june bugs haha

[Iceresistance]

SOI index starting to tank and drop, today's Daily value is -11.9

[JuneEl]

Thanks for the info on water reservoirs in the state. Now I know the the SOI determines whether we are in a El Niño or La Niña year. Would you please explain the differences, for a relative weather newbie.

[don]

Severe weather may be on the menu later this week.With decent shear and no cap in place.

Screenshot 2023-03-13 at 08-50-41 Models ECMWF Hi-Res — Pivotal Weather.png

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0400 AM CDT Mon Mar 13 2023

Valid 161200Z - 211200Z

...DISCUSSION...
Guidance remains in good agreement that a southern-stream shortwave
trough will eject over the southern Plains on Day 4/Thursday. At
least upper 50s to perhaps mid 60s surface dewpoints should return
northward ahead of this upper trough across parts of central/east
TX/OK into the ArkLaTex vicinity. As mid-level temperatures cool and
daytime heating occurs, weak to moderate instability is forecast to
develop by Thursday afternoon along and ahead of a surface dryline.

Ascent attendant to the shortwave trough should encourage robust
convective development along much of the length of the dryline late
Thursday afternoon and evening. Strong deep-layer shear will easily
support organized convection, including the potential for supercells
with a large hail and damaging wind threat. Additional severe
convection may develop Thursday night across portions of east TX
into the ArkLaTex in a strengthening low-level warm advection
regime. Even though low-level moisture should remain somewhat
limited, enough low-level shear should be present to support some
threat for a few tornadoes as well. Confidence in scattered severe
convection occurring has increased enough to introduce a 15% severe
area for Thursday.

[Cromagnum]

I like that first graphic. Not the 2nd one so much. Will have to keep an eye on trends.

[Iceresistance]

Severe weather may be on the menu later this week.With decent shear and no cap in place.

Screenshot 2023-03-13 at 08-50-41 Models ECMWF Hi-Res — Pivotal Weather.png

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0400 AM CDT Mon Mar 13 2023

Valid 161200Z - 211200Z

...DISCUSSION...
Guidance remains in good agreement that a southern-stream shortwave
trough will eject over the southern Plains on Day 4/Thursday. At
least upper 50s to perhaps mid 60s surface dewpoints should return
northward ahead of this upper trough across parts of central/east
TX/OK into the ArkLaTex vicinity. As mid-level temperatures cool and
daytime heating occurs, weak to moderate instability is forecast to
develop by Thursday afternoon along and ahead of a surface dryline.

Ascent attendant to the shortwave trough should encourage robust
convective development along much of the length of the dryline late
Thursday afternoon and evening. Strong deep-layer shear will easily
support organized convection, including the potential for supercells
with a large hail and damaging wind threat. Additional severe
convection may develop Thursday night across portions of east TX
into the ArkLaTex in a strengthening low-level warm advection
regime. Even though low-level moisture should remain somewhat
limited, enough low-level shear should be present to support some
threat for a few tornadoes as well. Confidence in scattered severe
convection occurring has increased enough to introduce a 15% severe
area for Thursday.

Yep, I'm in the severe weather potential for Thursday.

[jasons2k]

Weather app shows 36 on Monday morning.

But awhile back it had 37 for this past weekend too. Not even close.

[Cromagnum]

Can we bottle up the weather we have had the last two days? It doesn't get a lot better.

[spadilly]

Day 3 outlook:

[don]

Looks like a potent MCS is going to move through on Thursday.

rgem_mslp_pcpn_frzn_scus_69.png

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0228 AM CDT Tue Mar 14 2023

Valid 161200Z - 171200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE ARKLATEX...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms capable of producing large hail,
damaging winds, and a few tornadoes should occur Thursday across
parts of the southern Plains into the ArkLaTex and lower Mississippi
Valley.

...Southern Plains into the Lower Mississippi Valley...
Upper troughing will progress eastward across the central CONUS on
Thursday. The northern portion of this upper trough should evolve
into a closed upper low over the northern Plains and adjacent parts
of central Canada through the period. Farther south, a lead
low-amplitude shortwave trough should quickly eject northeastward
through the day from the southern Plains into the MS Valley and
Midwest. Behind this lead wave, another shortwave trough with
associated strong mid/upper-level west-southwesterly jet is forecast
to overspread parts of TX/OK by late Thursday afternoon. There are
still notable differences in deterministic guidance regarding the
amplitude and location of this second shortwave trough by late
Thursday afternoon. The primary surface low, initially near the
KS/OK border, should develop northeastward towards the Midwest/Great
Lakes by Thursday evening in tandem with the lead shortwave trough.
An attendant cold front will sweep quickly southeastward over the
central/southern Plains and ArkLaTex region. A dryline should mix
eastward across central TX through Thursday afternoon.

There are some indications in guidance that convection may initiate
fairly early in the day over the open warm sector of east TX and
vicinity. This activity may be tied to persistent low-level warm
advection, and the glancing influence of the lead shortwave trough.
Gradually increasing low-level moisture and filtered diurnal heating
should support the development of at least weak instability across
these areas. With strong deep-layer shear expected, any
thunderstorms that be sustained could pose some severe threat.
Additional isolated convection will probably develop along the
dryline by late Thursday afternoon across parts of north/central TX
as the second shortwave trough approaches the southern Plains. This
activity may initially be supercellular with a threat for large hail
given steep mid-level lapse rates and potentially moderate
instability. With time, convection will likely grow upscale into an
MCS along the quickly advancing cold front. This MCS should have a
greater wind threat as it moves generally east-southeastward
Thursday evening/overnight across central/east TX, the ArkLaTex, and
eventually lower MS Valley. A rather strong low-level jet should
also be present over east TX into AR/LA Thursday evening. With ample
low-level shear forecast, any supercells that can form and remain
ahead of the cold front/MCS should pose a tornado threat.

[MontgomeryCoWx]

Headed to Des Moines for the first two rounds of the tourney.

Snow and teens/20s! Love it.

[Cromagnum]

Little rogue rain cell just missed me south. Angleton and Danbury might have cashed in.

[brazoriatx]

Little rogue rain cell just missed me south. Angleton and Danbury might have cashed in.

We got about 3 mins of light sprinkles here in angleton. Not worth writing home about

[DoctorMu]

Looks like a potent MCS is going to move through on Thursday.
rgem_mslp_pcpn_frzn_scus_69.png

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0228 AM CDT Tue Mar 14 2023

Valid 161200Z - 171200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE ARKLATEX...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms capable of producing large hail,
damaging winds, and a few tornadoes should occur Thursday across
parts of the southern Plains into the ArkLaTex and lower Mississippi
Valley.

...Southern Plains into the Lower Mississippi Valley...
Upper troughing will progress eastward across the central CONUS on
Thursday. The northern portion of this upper trough should evolve
into a closed upper low over the northern Plains and adjacent parts
of central Canada through the period. Farther south, a lead
low-amplitude shortwave trough should quickly eject northeastward
through the day from the southern Plains into the MS Valley and
Midwest. Behind this lead wave, another shortwave trough with
associated strong mid/upper-level west-southwesterly jet is forecast
to overspread parts of TX/OK by late Thursday afternoon. There are
still notable differences in deterministic guidance regarding the
amplitude and location of this second shortwave trough by late
Thursday afternoon. The primary surface low, initially near the
KS/OK border, should develop northeastward towards the Midwest/Great
Lakes by Thursday evening in tandem with the lead shortwave trough.
An attendant cold front will sweep quickly southeastward over the
central/southern Plains and ArkLaTex region. A dryline should mix
eastward across central TX through Thursday afternoon.

There are some indications in guidance that convection may initiate
fairly early in the day over the open warm sector of east TX and
vicinity. This activity may be tied to persistent low-level warm
advection, and the glancing influence of the lead shortwave trough.
Gradually increasing low-level moisture and filtered diurnal heating
should support the development of at least weak instability across
these areas. With strong deep-layer shear expected, any
thunderstorms that be sustained could pose some severe threat.
Additional isolated convection will probably develop along the
dryline by late Thursday afternoon across parts of north/central TX
as the second shortwave trough approaches the southern Plains. This
activity may initially be supercellular with a threat for large hail
given steep mid-level lapse rates and potentially moderate
instability. With time, convection will likely grow upscale into an
MCS along the quickly advancing cold front. This MCS should have a
greater wind threat as it moves generally east-southeastward
Thursday evening/overnight across central/east TX, the ArkLaTex, and
eventually lower MS Valley. A rather strong low-level jet should
also be present over east TX into AR/LA Thursday evening. With ample
low-level shear forecast, any supercells that can form and remain
ahead of the cold front/MCS should pose a tornado threat.

Great - we'll be driving through that mess.

[DoctorMu]

Headed to Des Moines for the first two rounds of the tourney.

Snow and teens/20s! Love it.

Wish I were there. Driving to Greensboro area and beyond, but the NCAAT committee pulled a switcheroo sending Duke to Orland.

A&M was seeded #7 by spite to play t.u. I think the Aggies can pull the upset, but need to win their first game against Penn State first.

[DoctorMu]

Here's an image of the near Mercury and Venus conjunction:

IMG_5650.jpeg

[MontgomeryCoWx]

Headed to Des Moines for the first two rounds of the tourney.

Snow and teens/20s! Love it.

Wish I were there. Driving to Greensboro area and beyond, but the NCAAT committee pulled a switcheroo sending Duke to Orland.

A&M was seeded #7 by spite to play t.u. I think the Aggies can pull the upset, but need to win their first game against Penn State first.

Are you a Duke fan too?

[spadilly]

Day 2 maps from the SPC: