Long range model discussion

[Stratton20]

Cpv17 I like that run haha, got a building ridge off the west coast and the SE ridge building along the east, forces that cold air down into the western and central us, also allows troughs to dig much further south, ensembles are ticking in the right direction for cold

[Cpv17]

The 0z GFS has wintry precip over parts of SETX lol

[Stratton20]

Another fun run haha, though the GEFS is slowly ticking colder with each run, I can see one last big dump or maybe 2 of arctic air before winter is over, it truly is hilarious reading all of these winter is over comments by so called “twitter meteorologists “

[sambucol]

The 0z GFS has wintry precip over parts of SETX lol

When?

[Stratton20]

sambucol saturday the 18th, so definitely or most likely a fantasy run, now if it starts to appear inside of 10 days then. it will be something to watch, but for now just a fantasy run again

[Cpv17]

The 12z GFS is nuts lol

[Stratton20]

Cpv17 yup haha, i can’t completely rule out another winter storm in Texas just yet, though man im l glad i dont live on the east coast, that SE ridge is feisty this year

[Stratton20]

18z GFS is still sniffing out some wintry mischief at hour 264, far out but I think it may be on to something,l

[Ptarmigan]

Wintry precipitation 11 days from now. Let's see what the other forecast models have.

[Stratton20]

ptarmigan probably nothing since the GFS is the only one that goes out beyond 240 hours, more than likely another fantasy run, but you never know, sometimes the GFS does get one right from time to time lol

[Stratton20]

meh next weekend is looking boring, maybe some modified arctic air, but that darn SE ridge is too close, wont allow the troughs to dig far enough south to produce wintry precipitation, that ridge sucks

[Cpv17]

meh next weekend is looking boring, maybe some modified arctic air, but that darn SE ridge is too close, wont allow the troughs to dig far enough south to produce wintry precipitation, that ridge sucks

Yeah, the AO isn’t cooperating.

[Stratton20]

Cpv17 though it appears a SSWE is underway, march is looking interesting potentially, Eric and Matt from SCW alluded to it in their article this morning, cant remember the last time we had a cold march, could be an interesting to see what longer range guidance shows

[Cpv17]

Cpv17 though it appears a SSWE is underway, march is looking interesting potentially, Eric and Matt from SCW alluded to it in their article this morning, cant remember the last time we had a cold march, could be an interesting to see what longer range guidance shows

I’m hearing late February into March could be on the cold side.

[Stratton20]

Cpv17 yep! Someone posted the euro weeklies ( not on here)from last night and wow! If thise verify the end of february and most of if not all of march could be pretty darn cold, definitely seeing some colder temps building in the long range GFS, interesting days ahead

[MontgomeryCoWx]

Cpv17 though it appears a SSWE is underway, march is looking interesting potentially, Eric and Matt from SCW alluded to it in their article this morning, cant remember the last time we had a cold march, could be an interesting to see what longer range guidance shows

You're not that old. We had an extremely cold March in the 2014-2015 timeframe. We had ice and snow. In April 2007, I believe, we froze and my hometown of Longview had 7 inches of snow. It was a white Easter Sunday.

[Stratton20]

Montgomerycowx I wasnt in to weather back then so i guess i never really payed much attention, but thats crazy, i go up to longview a few times a year to visit my grandparents, nice town,, we will just have to see how this SSWE evolves over time

[snowman65]

I know its a ways off but can someone try to give me an idea of what the weather/temps (could) be like in mid march in Branson, MO? We will be there on vacation mar 12 -17. Thanks for any help.

[Stratton20]

Man the OP GFS is really picking up on the SSWE, looks like the 22-24th time frame may be one to watch

[sambucol]

Man the OP GFS is really picking up on the SSWE, looks like the 22-24th time frame may be one to watch

What does it show for us then? I’ve been sick and not watching much of anything. Getting better though.