January 2023

[walsean1]

Looks like no winter precipitation for SE Texas. Unless there is an underestimated element to the forecast models that they are not picking up on.

[Stratton20]

walsean1 trust me with this setup youll be glad its just rain for yall

[DoctorMu]

Looks like no winter precipitation for SE Texas. Unless there is an underestimated element to the forecast models that they are not picking up on.

There has been but not for Houston.

The temperature is really tanking out there. 20° drop in the last couple of hours.

[brazoriatx]

Where is the front now? Still in the 70s here

[Stratton20]

Looks like the front is just passing huntsville now, should be in the houston area within the next couple of hours,
Went from 70->51 in an hour

[suprdav2]

Ended up with 5.9 inches of rain. Cypress Rosehill at the grand parkway is closed due to flooding.

[Cpv17]

Ended up with 5.9 inches of rain. Cypress Rosehill at the grand parkway is closed due to flooding.

That’s nuts.

[Stratton20]

Based on the latest nam, wouldnt be surprised if my area gets included in the winter storm watch and possibly some western counties, freeze line is further south,
Nam has some pretty nasty totals

[sambucol]

About an hour ago, posted on Facebook by Travis Herzog, KTRK TV Met:

To be perfectly clear, for most of the daylight hours Monday through Wednesday it will be in the 30s and 40s under a cloudy and at times wet sky.

[sambucol]

And Travis Herzog went on to say this:

Out of necessity, just about every forecast generated in a weather app or on a website (even our own) is automated using a blend of computer model data. That process generally works well in the majority of weather situations, but this is not one of those situations.

This shallow cold air (the edge of an arctic front), is not handled well by the majority of the computer models. I know many of you use weather apps first to plan your week instead of relying on the local news, so this was simply a courtesy heads up that if you aren’t getting your forecast directly from a human, you’re likely going to get caught off guard.

#trustthehumans

[don]

Yep,models are coming in even colder tonight,if the trend continues parts of SE Texas may need to be put under a winter weather advisory or warning.

[DoctorMu]

Looks like no winter precipitation for SE Texas. Unless there is an underestimated element to the forecast models that they are not picking up on.

There has been but not for Houston.

The temperature is really tanking out there. 20° drop in the last couple of hours.

Make that a 30°F drop in temps.

[Stratton20]

RDPS 00z shifts south east as well, oh boy

[DoctorMu]

Yep,models are coming in even colder tonight,if the trend continues parts of SE Texas may need to be put under a winter weather advisory or warning.

Exactly as predicted. You learn a thing or two living in the same town for decades.

[DoctorMu]

RDPS 00z shifts south east as well, oh boy

Reality hitting. Humans know how to integrate physics, their knowledge, and nowcasting experience.

[DoctorMu]

RDPS 00z shifts south east as well, oh boy

NAM is ramming it home.

[don]

This setup is almost identical to last years February 3rd ice storm that affected a big chunk of the state.Global models greatly underestimated the shallow air,and winter weather advisories and warnings were issued.When just a day or two before that the frozen precip was expected to stay only in central and north Texas.(NOTE:this map isn't current,just a map of the event from last year)

[Stratton20]

And this ice storm could easily be even more significant than that pne from last february, we got so much moisture to work with plus multiple disturbances moving across the state

[DoctorMu]

This setup is almost identical to last years February 3rd ice storm that affected a big chunk of the state.Global models greatly underestimated the shallow air,and winter weather advisories and warnings were issued.When just a day or two before that the frozen precip was expected to stay only in central and north Texas.(NOTE:this map isn't current,just a map of the event from last year)

Yep.

The Hill Country has been upgraded to a Winter storm warning.

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
927 PM CST Sun Jan 29 2023

TXZ171>173-184>190-192-301130-
/O.UPG.KEWX.WS.A.0001.230130T1800Z-230201T1800Z/
/O.NEW.KEWX.WS.W.0001.230130T1500Z-230201T1800Z/
Llano-Burnet-Williamson-Edwards-Real-Kerr-Bandera-Gillespie-
Kendall-Blanco-Travis-
Including the cities of Llano, Burnet, Georgetown, Rocksprings,
Leakey, Kerrville, Bandera, Fredericksburg, Boerne, Blanco,
and Austin
927 PM CST Sun Jan 29 2023

...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 9 AM MONDAY TO NOON CST
WEDNESDAY...

* WHAT...Significant icing expected. Total ice accumulations of up
to two tenths of an inch will be possible.

* WHERE...Portions of south central Texas.

* WHEN...From 9 AM Monday to noon CST Wednesday.

* IMPACTS...Difficult travel conditions are possible. The
hazardous conditions could impact the morning or evening
commute.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Freezing rain could begin as early as
tomorrow morning across the warning area. Icing will be possible
mainly during the late night through mid-morning hours when
temperatures will be coldest, though minor glazing of elevated
surfaces could occur by the afternoon commute tomorrow.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If you must travel, keep an extra flashlight, food, and water in
your vehicle in case of an emergency. Prepare for possible power
outages.

The latest road conditions for the state can be obtained at
drivetexas.org.

&&

$$

[DoctorMu]

And this ice storm could easily be even more significant than that pne from last february, we got so much moisture to work with plus multiple disturbances moving across the state

days and days of it.