January 2023

[brazoriatx]

Absolute incredible QPF signal on the models! Wow!

Won't matter if we don't get the cold right

[Stratton20]

i feel very confident we are going to have an active storm track with plenty of moisture to work with, the cold is a question though, though the GFS and Euro op runs make no sense at all regarding the cold air, ensembles are significantly different than the op runs and thats very important

[Cpv17]

Absolute incredible QPF signal on the models! Wow!

Won't matter if we don't get the cold right

Matters to me cold or not cold. I love me a ton of rain.

[DoctorMu]

Canadian and some of the Ensembles are running far colder than the GFS and Euro, both of which poorly predicted the Feb 2021 winter storm.

[DoctorMu]

Combine the above with...

[Cromagnum]

Fully expect that sharp rain cutoff to be just east of us. Watch.

Even that pink region is only 2-3 inches of rain spread over a week's time.

[Cpv17]

Looks like 2-4” over the next 7 days across SETX. Higher totals in the eastern part of the area. Some isolated areas will see much higher totals.

[Ptarmigan]

If the forecast has freezing temperatures and rain, it could mean snow or freezing rain. It depends on how cold the upper atmosphere is. Snow occurs when there is deep cold. What do forecast models have temperature at different levels?

[Stratton20]

The CMC 00z now brings some freezing rain into our NW and western counties, at hour 132 which is only 5 days, thats well within a range that some of us might really need to be watching this very closely, as its looking a little more likely that some sort of winter storm may impact the state next week to some degree, ensemble support is very high as well

[redneckweather]

Active stormy pattern...yes.

Cold for wintry weather...no.

3 more weeks and Spring will start to show itself!

[Cpv17]

I would trust the CMC in these situations before the Euro and GFS as crazy as that is to say.

[Thundersleet]

And the reason is because of how well the CMC models have been handling this next Arctic surge versus the Euro and GFS?

[MontgomeryCoWx]

Brisk 3 degrees this morning on the Divide!

It feels delicious!

[Cpv17]

And the reason is because of how well the CMC models have been handling this next Arctic surge versus the Euro and GFS?

Because the CMC handles shallow Artic air better.

[redneckweather]

Brisk 3 degrees this morning on the Divide!

It feels delicious!

Enjoy! I just got back from Estes Park. The town and the mountains are completely buried is snow. We had a nice snowfall the first night there. Beautiful but I had my fill of snow after 3 days and was glad to get home.lol

[txbear]

Brisk 3 degrees this morning on the Divide!

It feels delicious!

Perfect for skiing, and hopefully keeps pow from getting crunchy and icy. Saw it was -31 in Angel Fire yesterday…holy smokes I didn’t think that level of cold could reach into that part of the Sangre de Cristos.

Speaking of crunchy/icy. Hard pass on the freezing rain, but if the best we can do is sleet, I’ll take it. I’d much prefer the crunch of sleet (many years growing up in west texas with that) than the glaze of freezing rain.

[jasons2k]

Had a chilly low of 33 today, the coldest morning this month. It was a close call but I will close-out January without recording a freeze. Same for IAH. Next week’s cold isn’t looking that bad. Probably a light freeze Friday AM. Still a week away though, things will change.

Kudos to the guys at SCW - they were spot-on with their Mid-January forecast.

From SCW 1/18:

After today and Wednesday, however, it looks like the rest of January will see more seasonable weather. I expect near normal, or slightly below normal, temperatures during the last 10 days of the month. In other words, our flirtations with 80-degree days probably will be over for awhile. February is the last month of the winter that typically can produce sustained, deep cold weather. Seasonal model guidance—which is not particularly reliable—suggests February will see near normal temperatures.

If you’re wondering about a freeze, the average date of the “last freeze” in Houston comes about one month from now in the city of Houston; sooner for the coast, and later for areas further inland. I give the city of Houston about a 10 or 15 percent chance of seeing sub-freezing temperatures during the remainder of January. As for February, who knows? While it’s entirely possible the region has seen it’s last freeze, no responsible meteorologist would say we are done with freeze chances during the winter of 2022-2023.

[jasons2k]

Brisk 3 degrees this morning on the Divide!

It feels delicious!

I bet you are enjoying it! The cold in the mountains is a different kind of cold. The dry air makes a huge difference. Anytime I ski I end-up peeling layers, especially if it's sunny.

Enjoy it up there. You don't have to worry about busted pipes

[jasons2k]

Just now checking email. This was early AM update from Jeff Lindner.

Wet pattern will bring days of clouds and rains to the area.

Clouds will begin to increase today…and likely the area will not see sun again until the end of next week.

Surface cold front over the Gulf of Mexico will begin to move back northward and develop into a coastal trough later today as the next upper level storms system approaches from the SW US. Mid level cloud deck over S TX will spread northward today signaling the return of moisture. Gradual lift overnight may result in a few light showers moving inland off the Gulf of Mexico. Coastal trough begins to intensify on Saturday along with development of 25-35kts low level jet over the area which will pump deeper moisture in from the southern Gulf of Mexico. Showers will be possible throughout the day.

Surface cold front will arrive Saturday night into Sunday morning with onset of widespread showers and thunderstorms. Guidance is becoming a bit more aggressive with rainfall chances and totals through this period.

Rainfall Amounts:
Moisture and lift will be in place as the slow moving front crosses the area Saturday night into Sunday. Widespread showers and thunderstorms will develop. Widespread amounts of 1-3 inches will be possible along and south of a Brenham to Livingston line including all of the metro area. WPC has added the coastal locations including the metro area into a slight risk for flash flooding on Sunday. With the coastal trough/warm front nearing the coast the threat for more sustained heavy rainfall will be possible.

Severe Threat:
With a slower frontal passage, and now window into Sunday afternoon for the front to reach areas south of I-10 there is a marginal severe threat with damaging winds and large hail as the air mass destabilizes. Wind profiles are much weaker than this past Tuesday, but still enough for a few severe thunderstorms south of I-10 should enough instability develop. Will need to keep an eye on potential instability levels to see if a higher severe threat may materialize Sunday.

Hydro:
Grounds are saturated over the area and forecasted rainfall is going to result in run-off. Flooding is still ongoing along upper Cypress Creek and several watersheds over the area continues to drain run-off from Tuesday. Widespread rains will support rises on watersheds into early next week. At this time significant flooding is not expected, but responses, especially in NW/N/W/NE/E Harris County will be likely given the back state and already elevated channels.

Extended:
Wet weather continues through at least mid week with stalled front near the coast and several coastal lows/ upper trough to cross the region. A much colder modified arctic air mass will attempt to drop southward into Texas by Monday, but it remains in question how far south this front makes it. For now will keep this boundary and cold air north and west of our area along with any freezing precipitation. Main concern through the next 5-7 days will be rainfall amounts and responses on rivers and creeks.

Jeff Lindner
Director Hydrologic Operations Division/Meteorologist
Harris County Flood Control District
9900 Northwest Freeway | Houston, Texas 77092
346-286-4000 (main) | 346-286-4165 (direct) | 281-924-2091 (cell)
jeff.lindner@hcfcd.org | Twitter: @jefflindner1

[Stratton20]

Well the 12z Euro finally starts to bring that arctic air south, seems much more plausible given its recent very perplexing runs