Hurricane Earl Western Atlantic
12 z pressures http://www.met.sjsu.edu/weather/models/ ... 6-ani.html
00 z pressures http://www.met.sjsu.edu/weather/models/ ... 6-ani.html
menu http://www.met.sjsu.edu/weather/ecmwf.html
they loop really fast, so easiest to see if you slow it way down or stop & advance 1 at a time
00 z pressures http://www.met.sjsu.edu/weather/models/ ... 6-ani.html
menu http://www.met.sjsu.edu/weather/ecmwf.html
they loop really fast, so easiest to see if you slow it way down or stop & advance 1 at a time
-
sleetstorm
- Posts: 651
- Joined: Thu Feb 04, 2010 12:33 pm
- Contact:
The large and heavy waves being generated via Hurricane Earl should make surfers happy. Just be cautious of the undertow current.
2 PM Intermediate Advisory
000
WTNT32 KNHC 011744
TCPAT2
BULLETIN
HURRICANE EARL INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 29A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072010
200 PM EDT WED SEP 01 2010
...LARGE HURRICANE EARL CONTINUES RELENTLESSLY TOWARD THE
NORTHWEST...POSES A THREAT TO THE MID ATLANTIC COAST...
SUMMARY OF 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...25.7N 72.7W
ABOUT 275 MI...440 KM E OF ABACO ISLAND IN THE BAHAMAS
ABOUT 680 MI...1095 KM SSE OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...125 MPH...205 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...941 MB...27.79 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...
THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR SAN SALVADOR ISLAND IN THE BAHAMAS
HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BOGUE INLET NORTH CAROLINA NORTHEASTWARD TO THE NORTH
CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER INCLUDING THE PAMLICO AND ALBEMARLE
SOUNDS.
A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTH OF THE NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER TO CAPE HENLOPEN
DELAWARE.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* FROM CAPE FEAR TO WEST OF BOGUE INLET NORTH CAROLINA.
A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A WARNING IS TYPICALLY ISSUED
36 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF
TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE
PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE
AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.
A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS
BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE
WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR
DANGEROUS.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.
INTERESTS ELSEWHERE FROM NEW JERSEY TO NEW ENGLAND SHOULD MONITOR
THE PROGRESS OF EARL.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED
STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE
MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICE.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...THE EYE OF HURRICANE EARL WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 25.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 72.7 WEST. EARL IS MOVING
TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 17 MPH...28 KM/HR...AND THIS MOTION IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TODAY WITH A GRADUAL TURN TO THE NORTH ON
THURSDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CORE OF THE HURRICANE WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE WELL EAST AND NORTHEAST OF THE BAHAMAS TODAY AND
TONIGHT...AND WILL APPROACH THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST BY LATE
THURSDAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 125 MPH...205 KM/HR...WITH
HIGHER GUSTS. EARL IS A CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE ON THE
SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE. HOWEVER...PRELIMINARY DATA FROM
AN AIR FORCE PLANE INDICATE THAT THE HURRICANE IS BEGINNING TO
STRENGTHEN AND EARL COULD AGAIN BECOME A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE
LATER TODAY.
EARL IS A LARGE HURRICANE. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 90 MILES...150 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE
WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 200 MILES...325 KM.
LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE
RECONNAISSANCE PLANE WAS 941 MB...27.79 INCHES.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WINDS...TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE NORTH
CAROLINA COAST WITHIN THE WARNING AREA BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON WITH
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS OCCURRING BY LATE THURSDAY.
STORM SURGE...A DANGEROUS STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER
LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS 3 TO 5 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL WITHIN THE
HURRICANE WARNING AREA. NEAR THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DESTRUCTIVE WAVES.
RAINFALL...ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED
MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 4 INCHES ARE EXPECTED OVER THE BAHAMAS AND
EXTREME EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA INCLUDING THE OUTER BANKS.
SURF...LARGE SWELLS FROM EARL SHOULD AFFECT THE BAHAMAS AND THE
SOUTHEASTERN COAST OF THE UNITED STATES TODAY. THESE SWELLS WILL
LIKELY CAUSE DANGEROUS SURF CONDITIONS AND RIP CURRENTS.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 PM EDT.
$$
FORECASTER AVILA
000
WTNT32 KNHC 011744
TCPAT2
BULLETIN
HURRICANE EARL INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 29A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072010
200 PM EDT WED SEP 01 2010
...LARGE HURRICANE EARL CONTINUES RELENTLESSLY TOWARD THE
NORTHWEST...POSES A THREAT TO THE MID ATLANTIC COAST...
SUMMARY OF 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...25.7N 72.7W
ABOUT 275 MI...440 KM E OF ABACO ISLAND IN THE BAHAMAS
ABOUT 680 MI...1095 KM SSE OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...125 MPH...205 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...941 MB...27.79 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...
THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR SAN SALVADOR ISLAND IN THE BAHAMAS
HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BOGUE INLET NORTH CAROLINA NORTHEASTWARD TO THE NORTH
CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER INCLUDING THE PAMLICO AND ALBEMARLE
SOUNDS.
A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTH OF THE NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER TO CAPE HENLOPEN
DELAWARE.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* FROM CAPE FEAR TO WEST OF BOGUE INLET NORTH CAROLINA.
A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A WARNING IS TYPICALLY ISSUED
36 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF
TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE
PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE
AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.
A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS
BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE
WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR
DANGEROUS.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.
INTERESTS ELSEWHERE FROM NEW JERSEY TO NEW ENGLAND SHOULD MONITOR
THE PROGRESS OF EARL.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED
STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE
MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICE.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...THE EYE OF HURRICANE EARL WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 25.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 72.7 WEST. EARL IS MOVING
TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 17 MPH...28 KM/HR...AND THIS MOTION IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TODAY WITH A GRADUAL TURN TO THE NORTH ON
THURSDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CORE OF THE HURRICANE WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE WELL EAST AND NORTHEAST OF THE BAHAMAS TODAY AND
TONIGHT...AND WILL APPROACH THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST BY LATE
THURSDAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 125 MPH...205 KM/HR...WITH
HIGHER GUSTS. EARL IS A CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE ON THE
SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE. HOWEVER...PRELIMINARY DATA FROM
AN AIR FORCE PLANE INDICATE THAT THE HURRICANE IS BEGINNING TO
STRENGTHEN AND EARL COULD AGAIN BECOME A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE
LATER TODAY.
EARL IS A LARGE HURRICANE. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 90 MILES...150 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE
WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 200 MILES...325 KM.
LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE
RECONNAISSANCE PLANE WAS 941 MB...27.79 INCHES.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WINDS...TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE NORTH
CAROLINA COAST WITHIN THE WARNING AREA BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON WITH
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS OCCURRING BY LATE THURSDAY.
STORM SURGE...A DANGEROUS STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER
LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS 3 TO 5 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL WITHIN THE
HURRICANE WARNING AREA. NEAR THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DESTRUCTIVE WAVES.
RAINFALL...ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED
MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 4 INCHES ARE EXPECTED OVER THE BAHAMAS AND
EXTREME EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA INCLUDING THE OUTER BANKS.
SURF...LARGE SWELLS FROM EARL SHOULD AFFECT THE BAHAMAS AND THE
SOUTHEASTERN COAST OF THE UNITED STATES TODAY. THESE SWELLS WILL
LIKELY CAUSE DANGEROUS SURF CONDITIONS AND RIP CURRENTS.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 PM EDT.
$$
FORECASTER AVILA
-
desiredwxgd
- Posts: 125
- Joined: Wed Feb 03, 2010 6:30 pm
- Location: TX/LA/Southern New England
- Contact:
I forgot the website where I can go to get the latest from the Aircraft?????
JMS
SR. ENSC.
SR. ENSC.
http://tropicalatlantic.com/desiredwxgd wrote:I forgot the website where I can go to get the latest from the Aircraft?????
for Atlantic:
recon http://tropicalatlantic.com/recon/
Google Earth http://tropicalatlantic.com/recon/#gerecon
recon archive http://tropicalatlantic.com/recon/archive/
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/index.shtml?#EARL
Public Advisory:
000
WTNT32 KNHC 012051
TCPAT2
BULLETIN
HURRICANE EARL ADVISORY NUMBER 30
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072010
500 PM EDT WED SEP 01 2010
...DANGEROUS AND LARGE HURRICANE EARL POSES A THREAT TO THE
MID-ATLANTIC COAST...WATCHES AND WARNINGS EXTENDED NORTHWARD
THROUGH MASSACHUSETTS...
SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...26.3N 73.3W
ABOUT 235 MI...380 KM E OF GREAT ABACO ISLAND
ABOUT 630 MI...1010 KM SSE OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...135 MPH...215 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...941 MB...27.79 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM THE NORTH
CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER TO SANDY HOOK NEW JERSEY...INCLUDING
DELAWARE BAY SOUTH OF SLAUGHTER BEACH AND THE CHESAPEAKE BAY SOUTH
OF NEW POINT COMFORT.
A HURRICANE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM WOODS HOLE TO SAGAMORE BEACH
MASSACHUSETTS...INCLUDING MARTHAS VINEYARD AND NANTUCKET.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM SANDY HOOK NEW JERSEY TO
WOODS HOLE MASSACHUSETTS...INCLUDING BLOCK ISLAND AND LONG ISLAND
SOUND.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM NORTH OF SAGAMORE BEACH
TO THE MOUTH OF THE MERRIMACK RIVER MASSACHUSETTS.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BOGUE INLET NORTH CAROLINA NORTHEASTWARD TO THE NORTH
CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER INCLUDING THE PAMLICO AND ALBEMARLE
SOUNDS.
A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTH OF THE NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER TO CAPE HENLOPEN
DELAWARE.
* WOODS HOLE TO SAGAMORE BEACH MASSACHUSETTS...INCLUDING MARTHAS
VINEYARD AND NANTUCKET.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* FROM CAPE FEAR TO WEST OF BOGUE INLET NORTH CAROLINA.
* FROM THE NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER TO SANDY HOOK NEW
JERSEY...INCLUDING DELAWARE BAY SOUTH OF SLAUGHTER BEACH AND THE
CHESAPEAKE BAY SOUTH OF NEW POINT COMFORT.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SANDY HOOK NEW JERSEY TO WOODS HOLE MASSACHUSETTS...INCLUDING
BLOCK ISLAND AND LONG ISLAND SOUND.
* NORTH OF SAGAMORE BEACH TO THE MOUTH OF THE MERRIMACK RIVER
MASSACHUSETTS.
A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A WARNING IS TYPICALLY ISSUED
36 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF
TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE
PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE
AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.
A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS
BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE
WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR
DANGEROUS.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.
INTERESTS IN NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND SOUTHEASTERN CANADA SHOULD
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF EARL.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY
YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...THE LARGE EYE OF HURRICANE EARL WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 26.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 73.3 WEST. EARL IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 17 MPH...28 KM/HR. THIS MOTION IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TONIGHT WITH A GRADUAL TURN TO THE NORTH ON
THURSDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CORE OF THE HURRICANE WILL
APPROACH THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST BY LATE THURSDAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 135 MPH...215
KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. EARL IS AGAIN A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE
ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE. SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN
INTENSITY ARE LIKELY TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...BUT A GRADUAL WEAKENING
TREND IS ANTICIPATED THEREAFTER.
EARL IS STILL A LARGE HURRICANE AND GROWING. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS
EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 90 MILES...150 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 200 MILES...325 KM.
LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE
RECONNAISSANCE PLANE A FEW HOURS AGO WAS 941 MB...27.79 INCHES.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WINDS...TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE NORTH
CAROLINA COAST WITHIN THE WARNING AREA BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON WITH
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS OCCURRING BY LATE THURSDAY. TROPICAL STORM
FORCE WINDS WILL LIKELY REACH THE COAST FROM VIRGINIA NORTHWARD TO
NEW JERSEY BY EARLY FRIDAY.
STORM SURGE...A DANGEROUS STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS
MUCH AS 3 TO 5 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL WITHIN THE HURRICANE WARNING
AREA. ELSEWHERE...STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS
1 TO 3 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL WITHIN THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING
AREA. NEAR THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND
DESTRUCTIVE WAVES.
RAINFALL...ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED
MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 6 INCHES...ARE EXPECTED OVER PORTIONS OF EASTERN
NORTH CAROLINA INCLUDING THE OUTER BANKS.
SURF...LARGE SWELLS FROM EARL WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE BAHAMAS
AND THE EAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES THROUGH FRIDAY. THESE
SWELLS WILL LIKELY CAUSE DANGEROUS SURF CONDITIONS AND RIP
CURRENTS.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...800 PM EDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 PM EDT.
$$
FORECASTER AVILA
Discussion:
000
WTNT42 KNHC 012051
TCDAT2
HURRICANE EARL DISCUSSION NUMBER 30
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072010
500 PM EDT WED SEP 01 2010
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE EYE HAS BECOME VERY
DISTINCT...WITH OJECTIVE T-NUMBERS OSCILLATING AROUND 6.0 FOR THE
PAST FEW HOURS. AN AIR FORCE PLANE MEASURED FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OF
138 KNOTS AND A MINIMUM PRESSURE OF 941 MB IN THE LAST FIX.
HOWEVER...SFMR MEASUREMENTS WERE A LITTLE LOWER. A COMPROMISE OF
THESE DATA SUPPORTS AN INITIAL INTENSITY OF 115 KNOTS.
HOWEVER...EARL COULD FLUCTUATE IN INTENSITY DURING THE NEXT 12 TO
24 HOURS BUT SHOULD BEGIN TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN AS IT REACHES
COOLER WATERS AND MOVES INTO HIGHER SHEAR BEYOND 36 HOURS. BY DAY 5
THE HURRICANE SHOULD HAVE BEEN ABSORBED BY A LARGE EXTRATROPICAL
CYCLONE WELL NORTH OF CANADA.
SATELLITE AND RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT FIXES INDICATE THAT EARL
HAS BEEN MOVING RELENTLESSLY TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES
AT 15 KNOTS. THE HURRICANE IS ABOUT TO REACH THE WESTERN EDGE OF
THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND SHOULD BEGIN TO TURN MORE TO THE
NORTH-NORTHWEST AND NORTH LATER TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. IN ABOUT 36
HOURS OR SO...THE HURRICANE WILL ENCOUNTER THE BASE OF THE
MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES AND SHOULD BEGIN TO RECURVE OR TURN TO THE
NORTHEAST WITH AN INCREASING FORWARD SPEED. THIS IS THE SOLUTION
CONSISTENTLY PROVIDED BY TRACK MODELS...WHICH HAVE EARL PASSING TO
THE EAST BUT NOT FAR FROM THE OUTER BANKS OF NORTH CAROLINA ON
THURSDAY NIGHT. ONLY A SMALL WESTWARD DEVIATION OF THE TRACK TO THE
WEST WOULD BRING THE CORE OF THE HURRICANE TO THE COAST.
GIVEN THE FORECAST TRACK...THE LARGE SIZE OF THE WIND FIELD...AND
THE EXPECTED INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED WATCHES AND WATCHES HAVE
BEEN EXTENDED NORTHWARD ALONG THE EAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 01/2100Z 26.3N 73.3W 115 KT
12HR VT 02/0600Z 28.4N 74.7W 115 KT
24HR VT 02/1800Z 31.7N 75.4W 110 KT
36HR VT 03/0600Z 35.1N 74.7W 100 KT
48HR VT 03/1800Z 38.5N 72.2W 90 KT
72HR VT 04/1800Z 46.5N 63.5W 60 KT
96HR VT 05/1800Z 58.0N 57.0W 40 KT...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120HR VT 06/1800Z...DISSIPATED
$$
FORECASTER AVILA
Public Advisory:
000
WTNT32 KNHC 012051
TCPAT2
BULLETIN
HURRICANE EARL ADVISORY NUMBER 30
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072010
500 PM EDT WED SEP 01 2010
...DANGEROUS AND LARGE HURRICANE EARL POSES A THREAT TO THE
MID-ATLANTIC COAST...WATCHES AND WARNINGS EXTENDED NORTHWARD
THROUGH MASSACHUSETTS...
SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...26.3N 73.3W
ABOUT 235 MI...380 KM E OF GREAT ABACO ISLAND
ABOUT 630 MI...1010 KM SSE OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...135 MPH...215 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...941 MB...27.79 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM THE NORTH
CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER TO SANDY HOOK NEW JERSEY...INCLUDING
DELAWARE BAY SOUTH OF SLAUGHTER BEACH AND THE CHESAPEAKE BAY SOUTH
OF NEW POINT COMFORT.
A HURRICANE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM WOODS HOLE TO SAGAMORE BEACH
MASSACHUSETTS...INCLUDING MARTHAS VINEYARD AND NANTUCKET.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM SANDY HOOK NEW JERSEY TO
WOODS HOLE MASSACHUSETTS...INCLUDING BLOCK ISLAND AND LONG ISLAND
SOUND.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM NORTH OF SAGAMORE BEACH
TO THE MOUTH OF THE MERRIMACK RIVER MASSACHUSETTS.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BOGUE INLET NORTH CAROLINA NORTHEASTWARD TO THE NORTH
CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER INCLUDING THE PAMLICO AND ALBEMARLE
SOUNDS.
A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTH OF THE NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER TO CAPE HENLOPEN
DELAWARE.
* WOODS HOLE TO SAGAMORE BEACH MASSACHUSETTS...INCLUDING MARTHAS
VINEYARD AND NANTUCKET.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* FROM CAPE FEAR TO WEST OF BOGUE INLET NORTH CAROLINA.
* FROM THE NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER TO SANDY HOOK NEW
JERSEY...INCLUDING DELAWARE BAY SOUTH OF SLAUGHTER BEACH AND THE
CHESAPEAKE BAY SOUTH OF NEW POINT COMFORT.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SANDY HOOK NEW JERSEY TO WOODS HOLE MASSACHUSETTS...INCLUDING
BLOCK ISLAND AND LONG ISLAND SOUND.
* NORTH OF SAGAMORE BEACH TO THE MOUTH OF THE MERRIMACK RIVER
MASSACHUSETTS.
A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A WARNING IS TYPICALLY ISSUED
36 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF
TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE
PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE
AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.
A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS
BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE
WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR
DANGEROUS.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.
INTERESTS IN NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND SOUTHEASTERN CANADA SHOULD
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF EARL.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY
YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...THE LARGE EYE OF HURRICANE EARL WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 26.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 73.3 WEST. EARL IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 17 MPH...28 KM/HR. THIS MOTION IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TONIGHT WITH A GRADUAL TURN TO THE NORTH ON
THURSDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CORE OF THE HURRICANE WILL
APPROACH THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST BY LATE THURSDAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 135 MPH...215
KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. EARL IS AGAIN A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE
ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE. SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN
INTENSITY ARE LIKELY TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...BUT A GRADUAL WEAKENING
TREND IS ANTICIPATED THEREAFTER.
EARL IS STILL A LARGE HURRICANE AND GROWING. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS
EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 90 MILES...150 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 200 MILES...325 KM.
LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE
RECONNAISSANCE PLANE A FEW HOURS AGO WAS 941 MB...27.79 INCHES.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WINDS...TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE NORTH
CAROLINA COAST WITHIN THE WARNING AREA BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON WITH
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS OCCURRING BY LATE THURSDAY. TROPICAL STORM
FORCE WINDS WILL LIKELY REACH THE COAST FROM VIRGINIA NORTHWARD TO
NEW JERSEY BY EARLY FRIDAY.
STORM SURGE...A DANGEROUS STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS
MUCH AS 3 TO 5 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL WITHIN THE HURRICANE WARNING
AREA. ELSEWHERE...STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS
1 TO 3 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL WITHIN THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING
AREA. NEAR THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND
DESTRUCTIVE WAVES.
RAINFALL...ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED
MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 6 INCHES...ARE EXPECTED OVER PORTIONS OF EASTERN
NORTH CAROLINA INCLUDING THE OUTER BANKS.
SURF...LARGE SWELLS FROM EARL WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE BAHAMAS
AND THE EAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES THROUGH FRIDAY. THESE
SWELLS WILL LIKELY CAUSE DANGEROUS SURF CONDITIONS AND RIP
CURRENTS.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...800 PM EDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 PM EDT.
$$
FORECASTER AVILA
Discussion:
000
WTNT42 KNHC 012051
TCDAT2
HURRICANE EARL DISCUSSION NUMBER 30
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072010
500 PM EDT WED SEP 01 2010
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE EYE HAS BECOME VERY
DISTINCT...WITH OJECTIVE T-NUMBERS OSCILLATING AROUND 6.0 FOR THE
PAST FEW HOURS. AN AIR FORCE PLANE MEASURED FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OF
138 KNOTS AND A MINIMUM PRESSURE OF 941 MB IN THE LAST FIX.
HOWEVER...SFMR MEASUREMENTS WERE A LITTLE LOWER. A COMPROMISE OF
THESE DATA SUPPORTS AN INITIAL INTENSITY OF 115 KNOTS.
HOWEVER...EARL COULD FLUCTUATE IN INTENSITY DURING THE NEXT 12 TO
24 HOURS BUT SHOULD BEGIN TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN AS IT REACHES
COOLER WATERS AND MOVES INTO HIGHER SHEAR BEYOND 36 HOURS. BY DAY 5
THE HURRICANE SHOULD HAVE BEEN ABSORBED BY A LARGE EXTRATROPICAL
CYCLONE WELL NORTH OF CANADA.
SATELLITE AND RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT FIXES INDICATE THAT EARL
HAS BEEN MOVING RELENTLESSLY TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES
AT 15 KNOTS. THE HURRICANE IS ABOUT TO REACH THE WESTERN EDGE OF
THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND SHOULD BEGIN TO TURN MORE TO THE
NORTH-NORTHWEST AND NORTH LATER TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. IN ABOUT 36
HOURS OR SO...THE HURRICANE WILL ENCOUNTER THE BASE OF THE
MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES AND SHOULD BEGIN TO RECURVE OR TURN TO THE
NORTHEAST WITH AN INCREASING FORWARD SPEED. THIS IS THE SOLUTION
CONSISTENTLY PROVIDED BY TRACK MODELS...WHICH HAVE EARL PASSING TO
THE EAST BUT NOT FAR FROM THE OUTER BANKS OF NORTH CAROLINA ON
THURSDAY NIGHT. ONLY A SMALL WESTWARD DEVIATION OF THE TRACK TO THE
WEST WOULD BRING THE CORE OF THE HURRICANE TO THE COAST.
GIVEN THE FORECAST TRACK...THE LARGE SIZE OF THE WIND FIELD...AND
THE EXPECTED INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED WATCHES AND WATCHES HAVE
BEEN EXTENDED NORTHWARD ALONG THE EAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 01/2100Z 26.3N 73.3W 115 KT
12HR VT 02/0600Z 28.4N 74.7W 115 KT
24HR VT 02/1800Z 31.7N 75.4W 110 KT
36HR VT 03/0600Z 35.1N 74.7W 100 KT
48HR VT 03/1800Z 38.5N 72.2W 90 KT
72HR VT 04/1800Z 46.5N 63.5W 60 KT
96HR VT 05/1800Z 58.0N 57.0W 40 KT...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120HR VT 06/1800Z...DISSIPATED
$$
FORECASTER AVILA
Is it my own wishful thinking or just a wobble or do the last couple af frames look like Earl is moving a bit more to the north. For all my loved ones on the East Coast, I hope it not just a wobble.
No rain, no rainbows.
definitely north
go here http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic2/real ... 000&loop=0
pick a satellite image from the top row
then click animate in the top, left corner (it will take a bit to load)
go here http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic2/real ... 000&loop=0
pick a satellite image from the top row
then click animate in the top, left corner (it will take a bit to load)
-
wxman57
- Global Moderator
- Posts: 2621
- Joined: Thu Feb 04, 2010 5:34 am
- Location: Southwest Houston (Westbury)
- Contact:
I've heard reports of a dropsonde reporting 154 kts a few hundred feet above the surface, and of a measured 199 mph wind gust in the eyewall.
Meanwhile, Earl seems to have killed the S2K server...
Meanwhile, Earl seems to have killed the S2K server...
-
Andrew
- Site Admin
- Posts: 3446
- Joined: Wed Feb 03, 2010 9:46 pm
- Location: North-West Houston
- Contact:
wxman57 wrote:I've heard reports of a dropsonde reporting 154 kts a few hundred feet above the surface, and of a measured 199 mph wind gust in the eyewall.
Meanwhile, Earl seems to have killed the S2K server...
Still works for me but others have reported the same. It is amazing how amazing this storm looks. I haven't seen a system this excellent looking in a very long time.
For Your Infinite Source For All Things Weather Visit Our Facebook
Quite an impressive storm. 
After Katrina crossed FL and starting to strengthen over the SE Gulf I started getting a sick feeling in my gut.
Not there yet with Earl, but that might change by tomorrow morning.
Amazing looking storm.
Not there yet with Earl, but that might change by tomorrow morning.
Amazing looking storm.
-
srainhoutx
- Site Admin
- Posts: 19623
- Joined: Tue Feb 02, 2010 2:32 pm
- Location: Maggie Valley, NC
- Contact:
000
WTNT32 KNHC 021139
TCPAT2
BULLETIN
HURRICANE EARL INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 32A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072010
800 AM EDT THU SEP 02 2010
...INTENSE HURRICANE EARL CONTINUES ON A NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD
TRACK...EXPECTED TO PASS NEAR THE OUTER BANKS TONIGHT...
SUMMARY OF 800 AM EDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...30.1N 74.8W
ABOUT 355 MI...575 KM S OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA
ABOUT 820 MI...1315 KM SSW OF NANTUCKET MASSACHUSETTS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...145 MPH...230 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...932 MB...27.52 INCHES
WTNT32 KNHC 021139
TCPAT2
BULLETIN
HURRICANE EARL INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 32A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072010
800 AM EDT THU SEP 02 2010
...INTENSE HURRICANE EARL CONTINUES ON A NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD
TRACK...EXPECTED TO PASS NEAR THE OUTER BANKS TONIGHT...
SUMMARY OF 800 AM EDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...30.1N 74.8W
ABOUT 355 MI...575 KM S OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA
ABOUT 820 MI...1315 KM SSW OF NANTUCKET MASSACHUSETTS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...145 MPH...230 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...932 MB...27.52 INCHES
Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Humberto/Ike/Harvey
Member: National Weather Association
Facebook.com/Weather Infinity
Twitter @WeatherInfinity
Member: National Weather Association
Facebook.com/Weather Infinity
Twitter @WeatherInfinity
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/#EARL
000
WTNT32 KNHC 021745
TCPAT2
BULLETIN
HURRICANE EARL INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 33A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072010
200 PM EDT THU SEP 02 2010
...EARL EXPECTED TO PASS NEAR THE OUTER BANKS AS A LARGE AND
POWERFUL HURRICANE TONIGHT...
SUMMARY OF 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...31.7N 75.2W
ABOUT 245 MI...395 KM S OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA
ABOUT 720 MI...1155 KM SSW OF NANTUCKET MASSACHUSETTS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...125 MPH...205 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 355 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...943 MB...27.85 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...
THE CANADIAN HURRICANE CENTRE HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WATCH FOR NOVA
SCOTIA FROM MEDWAY HARBOUR TO DIGBY...AND A TROPICAL STORM WATCH
FOR NOVA SCOTIA FROM ECUM SECUM TO MEDWAY HARBOUR AND FROM DIGBY TO
FORT LAWRENCE.
THE CANADIAN HURRICANE CENTRE HAS ALSO ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH
FOR NEW BRUNSWICK FROM JUST WEST OF FORT LAWRENCE WESTWARD TO THE
U.S./CANADA BORDER.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BOGUE INLET NORTH CAROLINA NORTHEASTWARD TO THE NORTH
CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER INCLUDING THE PAMLICO AND ALBEMARLE
SOUNDS.
* WESTPORT MASSACHUSETTS EASTWARD AROUND CAPE COD TO HULL INCLUDING
MARTHAS VINEYARD AND NANTUCKET ISLAND
A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTH OF THE NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER TO CAPE HENLOPEN
DELAWARE.
* NOVA SCOTIA FROM MEDWAY HARBOUR TO DIGBY
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* CAPE FEAR TO WEST OF BOGUE INLET NORTH CAROLINA.
* NORTH OF THE NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER TO SANDY HOOK NEW
JERSEY...INCLUDING DELAWARE BAY SOUTH OF SLAUGHTER BEACH AND THE
CHESAPEAKE BAY SOUTH OF NEW POINT COMFORT.
* THE EASTERN PORTION OF LONG ISLAND NEW YORK FROM FIRE ISLAND INLET
TO PORT JEFFERSON HARBOR.
* NEW HAVEN CONNECTICUT TO WEST OF WESTPORT MASSACHUSETTS...
INCLUDING BLOCK ISLAND.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTH OF HULL MASSACHUSETTS TO EASTPORT MAINE.
* THE COAST OF LONG ISLAND WEST OF FIRE ISLAND INLET AND PORT
JEFFERSON HARBOR.
* NOVA SCOTIA FROM ECUM SECUM TO MEDWAY HARBOUR AND FROM DIGBY TO
FORT LAWRENCE.
* NEW BRUNSWICK FROM JUST WEST OF FORT LAWRENCE WESTWARD TO THE
U.S./CANADA BORDER.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED
STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE
MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE
THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...THE EYE OF HURRICANE EARL WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 31.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 75.2 WEST. EARL IS MOVING
TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 18 MPH...30 KM/HR. A TURN TOWARD THE
NORTH-NORTHEAST WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED ON
FRIDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF EARL WILL PASS NEAR
THE NORTH CAROLINA OUTER BANKS TONIGHT...AND APPROACH SOUTHEASTERN
NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY NIGHT.
DATA FROM A RECONNAISSANCE PLANE INDICATE THAT EARL HAS BEGUN TO
GRADUALLY WEAKEN AND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 125 MPH...205
KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. EARL IS A CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE ON
THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE. GRADUAL WEAKENING SHOULD
CONTINUE TODAY AND FRIDAY...BUT EARL IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN A
POWERFUL HURRICANE AS IT PASSES NEAR THE OUTER BANKS.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 90 MILES...150 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 230
MILES...370 KM.
THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE RECENTLY REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE PLANE
WAS 943 MB...27.85 INCHES.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WINDS...TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE NORTH
CAROLINA COAST WITHIN THE WARNING AREA BY THIS AFTERNOON. EVEN IF
THE CENTER OF EARL REMAINS OFFSHORE...HURRICANE FORCE WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO OCCUR IN THE OUTER BANKS BY TONIGHT. TROPICAL-STORM-
FORCE WINDS WILL LIKELY REACH THE COAST FROM VIRGINIA NORTHWARD TO
NEW JERSEY TONIGHT OR EARLY FRIDAY.
STORM SURGE...A DANGEROUS STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS
MUCH AS 3 TO 5 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL WITHIN BOTH HURRICANE WARNING
AREAS AND THE LOWER CHESAPEAKE BAY. ELSEWHERE WITHIN THE TROPICAL
STORM WARNING AREA...STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH
AS 1 TO 3 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL. NEAR THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL
BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DESTRUCTIVE WAVES.
RAINFALL...ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED
MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 6 INCHES...ARE EXPECTED OVER PORTIONS OF EASTERN
NORTH CAROLINA INCLUDING THE OUTER BANKS. ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 2
INCHES ARE POSSIBLE FARTHER TO THE NORTH ALONG THE IMMEDIATE
MID-ATLANTIC COAST.
SURF...LARGE SWELLS FROM EARL WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE BAHAMAS
AND THE EAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES THROUGH FRIDAY. THESE
SWELLS WILL LIKELY CAUSE DANGEROUS SURF CONDITIONS AND RIP
CURRENTS.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 PM EDT.
$$
FORECASTER AVILA
pick your poison: http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic2/real ... 000&loop=0
000
WTNT32 KNHC 021745
TCPAT2
BULLETIN
HURRICANE EARL INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 33A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072010
200 PM EDT THU SEP 02 2010
...EARL EXPECTED TO PASS NEAR THE OUTER BANKS AS A LARGE AND
POWERFUL HURRICANE TONIGHT...
SUMMARY OF 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...31.7N 75.2W
ABOUT 245 MI...395 KM S OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA
ABOUT 720 MI...1155 KM SSW OF NANTUCKET MASSACHUSETTS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...125 MPH...205 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 355 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...943 MB...27.85 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...
THE CANADIAN HURRICANE CENTRE HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WATCH FOR NOVA
SCOTIA FROM MEDWAY HARBOUR TO DIGBY...AND A TROPICAL STORM WATCH
FOR NOVA SCOTIA FROM ECUM SECUM TO MEDWAY HARBOUR AND FROM DIGBY TO
FORT LAWRENCE.
THE CANADIAN HURRICANE CENTRE HAS ALSO ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH
FOR NEW BRUNSWICK FROM JUST WEST OF FORT LAWRENCE WESTWARD TO THE
U.S./CANADA BORDER.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BOGUE INLET NORTH CAROLINA NORTHEASTWARD TO THE NORTH
CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER INCLUDING THE PAMLICO AND ALBEMARLE
SOUNDS.
* WESTPORT MASSACHUSETTS EASTWARD AROUND CAPE COD TO HULL INCLUDING
MARTHAS VINEYARD AND NANTUCKET ISLAND
A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTH OF THE NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER TO CAPE HENLOPEN
DELAWARE.
* NOVA SCOTIA FROM MEDWAY HARBOUR TO DIGBY
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* CAPE FEAR TO WEST OF BOGUE INLET NORTH CAROLINA.
* NORTH OF THE NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER TO SANDY HOOK NEW
JERSEY...INCLUDING DELAWARE BAY SOUTH OF SLAUGHTER BEACH AND THE
CHESAPEAKE BAY SOUTH OF NEW POINT COMFORT.
* THE EASTERN PORTION OF LONG ISLAND NEW YORK FROM FIRE ISLAND INLET
TO PORT JEFFERSON HARBOR.
* NEW HAVEN CONNECTICUT TO WEST OF WESTPORT MASSACHUSETTS...
INCLUDING BLOCK ISLAND.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTH OF HULL MASSACHUSETTS TO EASTPORT MAINE.
* THE COAST OF LONG ISLAND WEST OF FIRE ISLAND INLET AND PORT
JEFFERSON HARBOR.
* NOVA SCOTIA FROM ECUM SECUM TO MEDWAY HARBOUR AND FROM DIGBY TO
FORT LAWRENCE.
* NEW BRUNSWICK FROM JUST WEST OF FORT LAWRENCE WESTWARD TO THE
U.S./CANADA BORDER.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED
STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE
MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE
THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...THE EYE OF HURRICANE EARL WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 31.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 75.2 WEST. EARL IS MOVING
TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 18 MPH...30 KM/HR. A TURN TOWARD THE
NORTH-NORTHEAST WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED ON
FRIDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF EARL WILL PASS NEAR
THE NORTH CAROLINA OUTER BANKS TONIGHT...AND APPROACH SOUTHEASTERN
NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY NIGHT.
DATA FROM A RECONNAISSANCE PLANE INDICATE THAT EARL HAS BEGUN TO
GRADUALLY WEAKEN AND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 125 MPH...205
KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. EARL IS A CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE ON
THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE. GRADUAL WEAKENING SHOULD
CONTINUE TODAY AND FRIDAY...BUT EARL IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN A
POWERFUL HURRICANE AS IT PASSES NEAR THE OUTER BANKS.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 90 MILES...150 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 230
MILES...370 KM.
THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE RECENTLY REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE PLANE
WAS 943 MB...27.85 INCHES.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WINDS...TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE NORTH
CAROLINA COAST WITHIN THE WARNING AREA BY THIS AFTERNOON. EVEN IF
THE CENTER OF EARL REMAINS OFFSHORE...HURRICANE FORCE WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO OCCUR IN THE OUTER BANKS BY TONIGHT. TROPICAL-STORM-
FORCE WINDS WILL LIKELY REACH THE COAST FROM VIRGINIA NORTHWARD TO
NEW JERSEY TONIGHT OR EARLY FRIDAY.
STORM SURGE...A DANGEROUS STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS
MUCH AS 3 TO 5 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL WITHIN BOTH HURRICANE WARNING
AREAS AND THE LOWER CHESAPEAKE BAY. ELSEWHERE WITHIN THE TROPICAL
STORM WARNING AREA...STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH
AS 1 TO 3 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL. NEAR THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL
BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DESTRUCTIVE WAVES.
RAINFALL...ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED
MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 6 INCHES...ARE EXPECTED OVER PORTIONS OF EASTERN
NORTH CAROLINA INCLUDING THE OUTER BANKS. ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 2
INCHES ARE POSSIBLE FARTHER TO THE NORTH ALONG THE IMMEDIATE
MID-ATLANTIC COAST.
SURF...LARGE SWELLS FROM EARL WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE BAHAMAS
AND THE EAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES THROUGH FRIDAY. THESE
SWELLS WILL LIKELY CAUSE DANGEROUS SURF CONDITIONS AND RIP
CURRENTS.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 PM EDT.
$$
FORECASTER AVILA
pick your poison: http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic2/real ... 000&loop=0
-
Bluefalcon
- Posts: 129
- Joined: Fri Jun 25, 2010 6:14 pm
- Location: Round Rock, TX
- Contact:
Earl looks to be heading NNE and out to sea. Good news for the Outer Banks, bad news for the MSM that descended like vultures.
Put the wet stuff on the red stuff!
-
desiredwxgd
- Posts: 125
- Joined: Wed Feb 03, 2010 6:30 pm
- Location: TX/LA/Southern New England
- Contact:
It is heading NNE but this was forecasted. After a NNE jog it will turn somewhat north before going NNE again. Still doesn't look great for Cape Cod, Ma other than going down to a cat 2.Bluefalcon wrote:Earl looks to be heading NNE and out to sea. Good news for the Outer Banks, bad news for the MSM that descended like vultures.
JMS
SR. ENSC.
SR. ENSC.
The developer/owner of TropicalAtlantic.com, Chris Hollis, posted this shot of the recon flight paths in Earl on another board that he's an administrator on - the image is from Google Earth - this is incredible, GRIP & PREDICT should get some fantastic data this year to improve forecasting models
