January 2023

[Cpv17]

All we need are the right temps in SETX with that moisture to have some winter fun.

Trending, trending, trending...

I’ll be in those darkest blues the 27th onward

I’m thinking they’re gonna need to shift some of those darker colors east based on what I’m seeing from some ensembles. The central and northern plains look really cold once we get past 10 days or so. That should be able to make its way down south you would think.

[MontgomeryCoWx]

Trending, trending, trending...

I’ll be in those darkest blues the 27th onward

I’m thinking they’re gonna need to shift some of those darker colors east based on what I’m seeing from some ensembles. The central and northern plains look really cold once we get past 10 days or so. That should be able to make its way down south you would think.

I’m good with that. Currently I’m looking at negative teens to roughly mid single digits every day I’m in the mountains. For me, that’s perfect. Not too cold, not too warm that I sweat on the slopes

[Cpv17]

I’ll be in those darkest blues the 27th onward

I’m thinking they’re gonna need to shift some of those darker colors east based on what I’m seeing from some ensembles. The central and northern plains look really cold once we get past 10 days or so. That should be able to make its way down south you would think.

I’m good with that. Currently I’m looking at negative teens to roughly mid single digits every day I’m in the mountains. For me, that’s perfect. Not too cold, not too warm that I sweat on the slopes

I’m thinking the Rockies are gonna stay cold for quite some time but eventually that should expand eastward a bit more into the central/northern plains and hopefully down our way too. Your trip looks to have temps probably 20-30 below normal.

[MontgomeryCoWx]

That’s in my wheelhouse and perfect backcountry skiing weather.

I’m camping outside one night.

I’d love to come back to temps below freezing here and some chances at wintry weather. It won’t be long before the weather sucks again (like today).

[redneckweather]

I’ll be in those darkest blues the 27th onward

I’m thinking they’re gonna need to shift some of those darker colors east based on what I’m seeing from some ensembles. The central and northern plains look really cold once we get past 10 days or so. That should be able to make its way down south you would think.

I’m good with that. Currently I’m looking at negative teens to roughly mid single digits every day I’m in the mountains. For me, that’s perfect. Not too cold, not too warm that I sweat on the slopes

Nice! I'll be in Estes Park, CO from the 22nd-25th. Forecast looks good for some down right cold temps and snow. Looking forward to it.

[jasons2k]

Good writeup today. If we have any more freezes we’ll have to wait until February, and then time starts running out. Winter is halfway over already.

https://spacecityweather.com/a-return-t ... r-houston/

[Stratton20]

Todays model runs look boring, yawn!

[MontgomeryCoWx]

Good writeup today. If we have any more freezes we’ll have to wait until February, and then time starts running out. Winter is halfway over already.

https://spacecityweather.com/a-return-t ... r-houston/

Don't think that will be accurate... well for IAH and Hobby, maybe.

I'll hit freezing again next week, and then probably a string of sub freezing lows the following weekend, beginning of the following week.

[Cpv17]

Good writeup today. If we have any more freezes we’ll have to wait until February, and then time starts running out. Winter is halfway over already.

https://spacecityweather.com/a-return-t ... r-houston/

Don't think that will be accurate... well for IAH and Hobby, maybe.

I'll hit freezing again next week, and then probably a string of sub freezing lows the following weekend, beginning of the following week.

I wouldn’t take that write up to the bank that’s for sure.

[walsean1]

Here is the Write up from Larry Cosgrove on the next 3 weeks.

https://twitter.com/larrycosgrove/statu ... 0Zh32jyRBw

[Stratton20]

I like the 500 mb setup on the 12z Euro, shows a coastal low forming at day 7 in the NW GOM, thats the right setup for a winter storm, all rain on that run, but the setup is there

[MontgomeryCoWx]

I like the 500 mb setup on the 12z Euro, shows a coastal low forming at day 7 in the NW GOM, thats the right setup for a winter storm, all rain on that run, but the setup is there

That low will help to pull more cold down.

[don]

Yep the setup is there,the EURO is really digging that shortwave far south next week.Just needs some colder air at the surface.As in this run the system cuts off too much and loses its connection to the northern stream shortwave in the northern plains.Thus less cold air is available in this run.Not that that really matters, in this range whats more important is that the overall upper level pattern looks good if you want snow from a cold core low.

Similar setups would be the December4th, 2009 snow event,& December 7 ,2017 snow event.

[jasons2k]

Good writeup today. If we have any more freezes we’ll have to wait until February, and then time starts running out. Winter is halfway over already.

https://spacecityweather.com/a-return-t ... r-houston/

Don't think that will be accurate... well for IAH and Hobby, maybe.

I'll hit freezing again next week, and then probably a string of sub freezing lows the following weekend, beginning of the following week.

I wouldn’t take that write up to the bank that’s for sure.

I don’t see any compelling reasons to disagree with the summary. It’s going to get cold but nothing major until at least another 10-14 days. It can be below normal around here without it being frigid.

I’m also only 8 miles (straight line) to IAH.

Jeff’s summary from this morning isn’t much different than SCW:

Near record warmth today.

Weak dry line boundary stalled yesterday afternoon/evening along a line form near Huntsville to Columbus where temperatures and dewpoints have fallen into the upper 50’s and low 60’s. This boundary has also resulted in very thick fog with several locations running .25 of a mile or less in the College Station, Brenham, and Columbus areas. East of this boundary a very humid and warm air mass is in place with sea fog over the nearshore waters and inland bays. Water temperatures are running in the low 60’s with dewpoints in the mid to upper 60’s resulting in coastal sea fog. Fog will be slow to lift and burn off today, which may keep afternoon highs just below record values…however we are already starting the day 3-5 degrees warmer than our normal high temperatures, and 10 degrees of warming would put many areas at or near record levels of right around 80 degrees.

Next storm system due into the southern plains on Wednesday and with the extensive warmth and moisture in place, strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible. Looks like the local area will be dealing with capping (warm air in the mid levels) and this will likely preclude much of any severe weather locally. Expect a line of showers and some thunderstorms to cross the area from midday on Wednesday into the mid to late afternoon hours. Much drier air mass ushers in behind this front with temperatures returning closer to season averages (but still above normal).

Front stalls out over the NW Gulf of Mexico Thursday into Friday and the approach of a disturbance from the west late Friday into the weekend will help foster a coastal low formation off the lower TX coast on Friday. This low is forecast to move generally NNE into SE TX on Saturday. Air mass will undergo moistening late Friday into Saturday with rain/showers spreading northward across the area as early as Friday night. Track of the surface low and quality of the moisture will determine rainfall amounts into Saturday and Saturday night. For now a widespread .25 to .75 of an inch of rainfall looks possible this weekend. Temperatures will be on the cooler side over the weekend with ENE/NE winds helping to draw cooler surface air southward and the incoming clouds and rainfall…will cap much of the area in the upper 50’s to near 60.

Longer term pattern suggest a return of colder conditions across the western and potentially the central US into the end of January and start of February. How cold is still very much in question with deep SW US trough likely to keep some of the cold west and northwest of the southern plains at least initially. Also looks fairly active with the southern branch storm track, so increasingly below normal temperatures and above average precipitation going toward the end of the month.

Jeff Lindner
Director Hydrologic Operations Division/Meteorologist
Harris County Flood Control District
9900 Northwest Freeway | Houston, Texas 77092
346-286-4000 (main) | 346-286-4165 (direct) | 281-924-2091 (cell)
jeff.lindner@hcfcd.org | Twitter: @jefflindner1

[MontgomeryCoWx]

Don't think that will be accurate... well for IAH and Hobby, maybe.

I'll hit freezing again next week, and then probably a string of sub freezing lows the following weekend, beginning of the following week.

I wouldn’t take that write up to the bank that’s for sure.

I don’t see any compelling reasons to disagree with the summary. It’s going to get cold but nothing major until at least another 10-14 days. It can be below normal around here without it being frigid.

I’m also only 8 miles (straight line) to IAH.

Jeff’s summary from this morning isn’t much different than SCW:

Near record warmth today.

Weak dry line boundary stalled yesterday afternoon/evening along a line form near Huntsville to Columbus where temperatures and dewpoints have fallen into the upper 50’s and low 60’s. This boundary has also resulted in very thick fog with several locations running .25 of a mile or less in the College Station, Brenham, and Columbus areas. East of this boundary a very humid and warm air mass is in place with sea fog over the nearshore waters and inland bays. Water temperatures are running in the low 60’s with dewpoints in the mid to upper 60’s resulting in coastal sea fog. Fog will be slow to lift and burn off today, which may keep afternoon highs just below record values…however we are already starting the day 3-5 degrees warmer than our normal high temperatures, and 10 degrees of warming would put many areas at or near record levels of right around 80 degrees.

Next storm system due into the southern plains on Wednesday and with the extensive warmth and moisture in place, strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible. Looks like the local area will be dealing with capping (warm air in the mid levels) and this will likely preclude much of any severe weather locally. Expect a line of showers and some thunderstorms to cross the area from midday on Wednesday into the mid to late afternoon hours. Much drier air mass ushers in behind this front with temperatures returning closer to season averages (but still above normal).

Front stalls out over the NW Gulf of Mexico Thursday into Friday and the approach of a disturbance from the west late Friday into the weekend will help foster a coastal low formation off the lower TX coast on Friday. This low is forecast to move generally NNE into SE TX on Saturday. Air mass will undergo moistening late Friday into Saturday with rain/showers spreading northward across the area as early as Friday night. Track of the surface low and quality of the moisture will determine rainfall amounts into Saturday and Saturday night. For now a widespread .25 to .75 of an inch of rainfall looks possible this weekend. Temperatures will be on the cooler side over the weekend with ENE/NE winds helping to draw cooler surface air southward and the incoming clouds and rainfall…will cap much of the area in the upper 50’s to near 60.

Longer term pattern suggest a return of colder conditions across the western and potentially the central US into the end of January and start of February. How cold is still very much in question with deep SW US trough likely to keep some of the cold west and northwest of the southern plains at least initially. Also looks fairly active with the southern branch storm track, so increasingly below normal temperatures and above average precipitation going toward the end of the month.

Jeff Lindner
Director Hydrologic Operations Division/Meteorologist
Harris County Flood Control District
9900 Northwest Freeway | Houston, Texas 77092
346-286-4000 (main) | 346-286-4165 (direct) | 281-924-2091 (cell)
jeff.lindner@hcfcd.org | Twitter: @jefflindner1

Yeah, for Harris county, I have no qualms with the write up, although, much like December, SCW and Jeff will keep trending colder. IMO, we see a very El Nino-ish pattern to end January and the first half of February. We won't see teens IMO, but I think we are about to be in for a 2-3 week period of well below normal after the 25th with plenty of chances at ice and/or snow.

[Stratton20]

Man i hope we can get some snow here, have only seen pictures of snow on campus, it would be a special treat

[MontgomeryCoWx]

Man i hope we can get some snow here, have only seen pictures of snow on campus, it would be a special treat

BCS has been the State's bullseye since 2017, minus the February 2021 storm when my hometown won that award with 17 inches that week. When there were chances for a dusting of snow around here, BCS would churn out 4-6 inches.

[DoctorMu]

Man i hope we can get some snow here, have only seen pictures of snow on campus, it would be a special treat

BCS has been the State's bullseye since 2017, minus the February 2021 storm when my hometown won that award with 17 inches that week. When there were chances for a dusting of snow around here, BCS would churn out 4-6 inches.

Exactly. North of Hwy 1*5 in the last dozen years has been bad for summer rain, tropical systems, but good for wintry precip,

The setup trends have potential...

It ain't over, 'til it's over.

[Cromagnum]

So sick of this weather pattern. I shouldn't be sweating my *** off outside in January. Can we get winter to stick around for more than 1-2 days at a time?

[Cpv17]

So sick of this weather pattern. I shouldn't be sweating my *** off outside in January. Can we get winter to stick around for more than 1-2 days at a time?

Changes are coming beginning tomorrow afternoon. Tomorrow morning is gonna be absolutely disgusting though.