December 2022

[MontgomeryCoWx]

There’s the TPV and SPV… the SPV largely stays put over the pole but if I’m reading the tea leaves correctly this would dislodge it on our side of the globe which has huge implications.

This one is new to me, so I need to do some reading.

[MontgomeryCoWx]

My guess is the Ural ridge initiates a SSW …

[Cpv17]

My guess is the Ural ridge initiates a SSW …

I’ve never heard of the Ural ridge. All I know is that it’s some mountain range in Russia.

[MontgomeryCoWx]

My guess is the Ural ridge initiates a SSW …

I’ve never heard of the Ural ridge. All I know is that it’s some mountain range in Russia.

Yep, my guess is that ridge pokes the SPV and weakens it sending cold air our way.

[Cpv17]

The -EPO signal has grown even stronger in the last 24 hours. Confidence is growing.

[MontgomeryCoWx]

The -EPO signal has grown even stronger in the last 24 hours. Confidence is growing.

I saw a 6 to 7 sigma EPO last night I believe. That is literally off the EPO chart.

Hell, 3 to 4 sigma is strong.

[tireman4]

000
FXUS64 KHGX 081155
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
Issued by National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
555 AM CST Thu Dec 8 2022

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Friday Night)
Issued at 251 AM CST Thu Dec 8 2022

Rinse and repeat forecast through the short term with near record
(or well above record) warmth and nightly patchy fog. Daily high
maximum and minimum temperature records were set at Houston-Hobby
and for the City of Galveston yesterday. Temperatures this afternoon
and tomorrow afternoon will climb into the low 80s along the coast
and up to the mid 80s inland bringing additional record high
temperatures to the cities of Houston and Galveston, and for Houston-
Hobby and Palacios. The record high for the City of College Station
is 86, so likely not hitting it there - though the record high for
tomorrow is 83 which may be more breakable. Overnight lows tonight
and Thursday night will generally be in the mid to upper 60s.

Patchy sea fog has redeveloped over the last few hours and will
likely persist through the short term with just a few hours of
reprieve in the afternoon hours each day. Patchy fog has also
developed over the last few hours across the coastal counties,
though not as widespread or dense compared to 24 hours ago. This fog
is expected to expand in coverage up to the I-10 corridor and
intensity through sunrise before dissipating the the mid morning.
This set up repeats tonight into Friday morning.

A weak surface trough will move up through the area on Friday
inducing isolated light rain showers across the area during the
morning into the mid afternoon hours. Again these will be light rain
showers producing maybe up to tenth of an inch.

Fowler

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through Wednesday)
Issued at 251 AM CST Thu Dec 8 2022

Continued abnormally warm and humid into early next week. May see
some sct shra across portions of the area Saturday as a pocket of
higher PW air (currently seen about 400 miles offshore on the
GOES Total PW imagery) moves onshore. Ditto for Sat night & Sunday
with another pocket currently located near the Yucatan Straits
along with the possibility of a diffuse frontal boundary or wind
shift briefly sags into parts of the area. Southerly winds begin
increasing early next week ahead of the next western trof & storm
system. Chances of precip will trend upward in advance of a cold
front that is still on track to push through the region Tuesday
night or Wednesday. 47

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 555 AM CST Thu Dec 8 2022

LIFR to MVFR visibilities and ceilings ongoing across SETX due to
fog and low stratus decks that have continued to shroud the area
since late last night. Fog will begin to burn off along with
ceilings lifting for a majority of the sites by 15 to 18Z however
the repreive from low ceilings will be short lived with another
round of similar IFR to LIFR conditions expected this evening.

Stigger/87 (LCH)

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 251 AM CST Thu Dec 8 2022

Light to moderate onshore flow will persist through the rest of
the week on into the weekend. Warm, moist air over the colder
water will provide an environment conducive for periods of sea fog
these next several days, mainly in the nighttime and morning
hours closer to the coast and in the bays. It probably will not be
until early next week when the overall threat subsides. That is
when we will see increased southerly winds in advance of cold
frontal passage Tuesday night or Wednesday. 47

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 82 65 81 67 / 0 10 10 10
Houston (IAH) 83 66 82 67 / 0 10 30 10
Galveston (GLS) 77 66 76 67 / 0 10 30 10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM CST this morning for GMZ330-335-
350-355.

&&

$$

[tireman4]

All I will commit to is it will be colder than this week we are in. The variables are certainly there. It will be an interesting couple of weeks to finish 2022. I would say, as Srain states, it does raise an eyebrow and a bear watch must be in place.

[Cromagnum]

All I will commit to is it will be colder than this week we are in. The variables are certainly there. It will be an interesting couple of weeks to finish 2022. I would say, as Srain states, it does raise an eyebrow and a bear watch must be in place.

I would hope so. I don't know if we have ever hit 90 in December before but I would revolt.

[Stratton20]

12z GFS has a really active sub tropical jet and a developing winter storm in texas at hour 240 or so, we shall see

[brazoriatx]

12z GFS has a really active sub tropical jet and a developing winter storm in texas at hour 240 or so, we shall see

Won't make it this far south though

[Stratton20]

brazoriatx way too early to tell, still more questions than answers, but this kind of upcoming pattern does spell the potential for a southern storm track, every little dip in the jet stream helps to bring the storm track further south over time

[MontgomeryCoWx]

Nat Gas spiking. Traders have bought into the pattern change.

Europe is so screwed. Lol, I feel sorry for the poor saps who didn’t vote for the insanity their puppet leaders are pushing.

[Stratton20]

Below Normal Temps and Above Normal Precipitation,hmmmm

[MontgomeryCoWx]

Below Normal Temps and Above Normal Precipitation,hmmmm

That's an about face.

Seriously though, CPC did that in 2021. February was going to be above average, then when first signs of a freeze coming showed, they stepped it down to neutral, then light blue then 3 days later we were in the dark blues.

Will be fun to follow.

[Cromagnum]

Couldn't resist.

[DoctorMu]

My guess is the Ural ridge initiates a SSW …

I’ve never heard of the Ural ridge. All I know is that it’s some mountain range in Russia.

Yep, my guess is that ridge pokes the SPV and weakens it sending cold air our way.

Here's a paper on the Ural Ridge - SSW relationship.

Usually there is a cold nasty trough in Siberia and all the cold air pooled east of the Urals becomes intense. If the Ural Ridge breaks down due to an SSW then the Frigid Siberian air jailbreaks into either Western Europe or into Alaska, Canada, and potentially the US.


https://link.springer.com/article/10.10 ... 22-06353-7

[DoctorMu]

12z GFS has a really active sub tropical jet and a developing winter storm in texas at hour 240 or so, we shall see

That's more like an El Nino winter than La Nina. The SST should be quieter. Hmmmmmm...

[jasons2k]

I’ve been away for awhile. I’m back and enjoying the last bit of warm weather for awhile it seems. Christmas period could get interesting.

MontgomeryCoWx - we will miss you bro!! Seriously! I know you will enjoy the coldness and congratulations on making dreams come true! Please do check-in like our friend SRain.

Will send you a PM

[Iceresistance]

Even the 18z GFS trolled me with absolutely no snow!