December 2022

[MontgomeryCoWx]

What kind of madness has the 18z GFS produced?

It’s 500mb make zero sense. Like I said, watching the GFS right now (and making sense of it) is an exercise in futility.

[srainhoutx]

Frankly, the new upgraded GFS is useless. Stick to the Euro and Canadian and their ensembles for any sense of likely reality for a sensible forecast.

[MontgomeryCoWx]

Frankly, the new upgraded GFS is useless. Stick to the Euro and Canadian and their ensembles for any sense of likely reality for a sensible forecast.

And there ya go….

LOL

[Stratton20]

The one time a model gets an upgrade and its performing even worse now lol, lock those CMC and euro runs in, its coming🥶🥶🥶

[Cpv17]

Just got through looking at the 12z EPS. Dang it looks pretty good. Has ridging from Alaska all the way to Greenland.

[sambucol]

I’m hopeful the cold air is coming. Do the models show anything remotely like December 1983 or 1989?

[DoctorMu]

The 8-14 day NWS forecasts are cooler than the 6-10s, leaning below normal.

[MontgomeryCoWx]

I’m hopeful the cold air is coming. Do the models show anything remotely like December 1983 or 1989?

I’m not focused on the surface output, yet…. Still too far out, but the recipe is there for major cold if you believe the 500mb patter the Euro and Canadian keep spitting out.

This is likely to be a 3 wave event if those two models just get into the ballpark of what they are showing now.

First wave, next week, second wave right before Christmas and 3rd and final wave between Christmas and NYE. There looks to be an active storm track that will help pull down the cold.

850s look great right now, but again, it’s early.

[sambucol]

I’ve read discussions about the possibility of a December 1983 comparison as the year ends into 2023. If so, we have some winterizing to get done for our home.

[Ptarmigan]

I’ve read discussions about the possibility of a December 1983 comparison as the year ends into 2023. If so, we have some winterizing to get done for our home.

December 1983 had 105 hours of freezing temperature. December 1989 had 56 hours of freezing temperature.
https://web.archive.org/web/20160630140 ... ezhour.htm

The February 2021 had 44 hours of freezing temperature.
https://www.weather.gov/hgx/2021ValentineStorm

The February 1895 and February 1899 freeze are in a class of its own. Same goes with January 1930 and February 1933.

[Stratton20]

00z CMC is even colder, has highs in the low 40’s and upper 30’s next week

[Cpv17]

Wow on the 0z EPS 500mb level!! Best I’ve seen yet.

[MontgomeryCoWx]

Wow on the 0z EPS 500mb level!! Best I’ve seen yet.

I love textbook setups!

[tireman4]

000
FXUS64 KHGX 061116
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
516 AM CST Tue Dec 6 2022

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Wednesday Night)
Issued at 300 AM CST Tue Dec 6 2022

Moderate southerly flow has kept the sea fog at bay (no pun
intended) with just some patchy spots near Trinity Bay. Scattered to
broken low stratus during the overnight hours will give way to
partly sunny skies this afternoon. An upper level ridge is building
over the Gulf of Mexico inducing a southwestern flow aloft across
Southeast Texas. Meanwhile at the surface, a weak high over SE CONUS
and a low pressure system in the Rockies is bringing a moist
southerly flow across Southeast Texas. The southwesterly flow aloft
and southerly flow at the surface means we will continue to see near
record high temperatures today and tomorrow. Galveston reached a
record high yesterday of 79 degrees while Houston and Hobby were
both one degree short of the record. Record highs today for Houston
and Hobby are lower than yesterday (though Galveston is higher), so
wouldn`t be surprise if we end up tying or breaking those records.
Afternoon highs today and tomorrow will be in the low 80s for most
of the area with localized areas climbing into the mid 80s.
Overnight lows will be in the mid to upper 60s.

Patchy fog will continue to be possible nightly, mainly near the
coast, but shouldn`t be as widespread as last weekend. There will be
a weak trough rounding the western edge of the surface high pressure
moving into SE Texas Wednesday. With PWATs near 1.25", the trough
may be able to trigger some isolated light showers during the
afternoon/evening hours.

Fowler

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through Monday)
Issued at 300 AM CST Tue Dec 6 2022

Warm, muggy conditions will persist through the weekend with temps
running a good 10-20 degrees above seasonal norms. We`ll be situated
on the northern periphery of a broad H5 ridge stretching across
the Gulf. Onshore flow in the llvls and subtle disturbances in the
flow aloft may be enough to allow for some iso/sct shra at times,
but gut feeling is that some of the model guidance might be
overdoing the overall potential. Exceptions might be closer to a
very weak front that`ll try its best to sag close to extreme
northern parts of the CWA around Fri (then retreat back north).
And depending on your model of choice, maybe another weak boundary
trying to the the same late Saturday or Sunday. We`ll have to
wait until Tuesday until a deeper upper trof tracks into the
Plains and a stronger cold front passes through. 47

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 511 AM CST Tue Dec 6 2022

Breezy southerly flow has kept most of the fog from forming this
morning with just some patchy fog developing in low lying areas. A
mix of MVFR to VFR conditions will continue through the mid
morning with CIGs between 1500 and 4000 ft, but the entire region
should be VFR by the afternoon. The breezy southerly flow,
sustained near 10 kts with gusts to 20 kts, will persist through
the late afternoon. The flow does become more southeasterly after
sunset with lower winds speeds expected. This may lead to more
areas of fog, dense at times, and IFR conditions with CIGs down to
1200 feet or lower tonight after midnight across the region with
LIFR conditions more likely along the coast.

Fowler

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 300 AM CST Tue Dec 6 2022

Light to moderate onshore flow will persist through the weekend.
The more difficult forecast challenge will be the potential for
longer duration sea fog. Nearshore and bay water temperatures are
currently in the 63-67 degree range. They`ll probably warm a few
degrees this week, but dewpoints will probably remain at or above
those temps most of the week. Currently we`re seeing southerly
winds and a lull in the sea fog. Chances are typically higher when
we see a more easterly component to the winds and a longer
trajectory over the colder waters. Bottom line is that fog
potential is there at pretty much any time...though they`ll
probably be a bit higher Wed night as winds back about 30 degrees
and more to the southeast. 47

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 79 67 81 67 / 0 10 10 10
Houston (IAH) 82 67 82 67 / 10 10 20 0
Galveston (GLS) 77 66 78 66 / 0 20 30 10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Fowler
LONG TERM....47
AVIATION...Fowler
MARINE...47

[txbear]

Frankly, the new upgraded GFS is useless. Stick to the Euro and Canadian and their ensembles for any sense of likely reality for a sensible forecast.

And there ya go….

LOL

Well that speaks pretty matter of fact.

Always good to see srain poke his head in from gorgeous Appalachia.

[tireman4]

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 1134 AM CST Tue Dec 6 2022

Occasional MVFR CIGS this afternoon will gradually lift and
scatter to bring more prevailing VFR conditions later today.
Breezy southerly winds this afternoon will relax this evening,
becoming southeasterly. MVFR CIGS will fill back in later tonight
with sea fog possible along the coast. This sea fog may bring IFR
to potentially LIFR conditions throughout the early morning hours
of Wednesday. Areas near the coast/bays will be most at risk for
these problematic conditions. Expect conditions to improve late
Wednesday morning with VFR conditions returning in the afternoon.

[brazoriatx]

Haven't seen wxman57 post on s2k in a while...he must be working on his wall.....

[MontgomeryCoWx]

Haven't seen wxman57 post on s2k in a while...he must be working on his wall.....

He knows it’s coming. He mentioned as much when the last cold snap was ending.

I believe his words were “I’m going to enjoy this warm up. Our big cold outbreaks in the last 50 years were largely following very warm periods. I need to work on my wall!”

[Stratton20]

12z GEFS is encouraging at least somewhat, maybe the midel and its ensemble are finally starting to cave

[Iceresistance]

Haven't seen wxman57 post on s2k in a while...he must be working on his wall.....

And messing with the models!