TS Fiona

[srainhoutx]

BEGIN
NHC_ATCF
invest_al972010.invest
FSTDA
R
U
040
010
0000
201008261716
NONE
NOTIFY=ATRP
END
INVEST, AL, L, , , , , 97, 2010, DB, O, 2010082612, 9999999999, , , , , , METWATCH, , AL972010
AL, 97, 2010082512, , BEST, 0, 111N, 135W, 15, 1011, DB, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 850, 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 97, 2010082518, , BEST, 0, 112N, 150W, 15, 1011, DB, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 850, 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 97, 2010082600, , BEST, 0, 113N, 165W, 20, 1010, DB, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 850, 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 97, 2010082606, , BEST, 0, 114N, 175W, 20, 1010, DB, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 850, 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 97, 2010082612, , BEST, 0, 115N, 190W, 20, 1010, DB, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1013, 175, 45, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, M,

Code: Select all

 
WHXX01 KWBC 261718
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1718 UTC THU AUG 26 2010
 
DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.
 
ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR
 
DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL972010) 20100826 1200 UTC
 
        ...00 HRS...   ...12 HRS...   ...24 HRS. ..   ...36 HRS...
        100826  1200   100827  0000   100827  1200   100828  0000
 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS    11.5N  19.0W   11.8N  21.3W   12.5N  23.9W   13.5N  26.8W
BAMD    11.5N  19.0W   11.6N  21.5W   12.0N  24.2W   12.5N  27.0W
BAMM    11.5N  19.0W   11.8N  21.4W   12.5N  24.1W   13.3N  27.1W
LBAR    11.5N  19.0W   11.7N  21.9W   12.0N  25.0W   12.3N  28.6W
SHIP        20KTS          24KTS          31KTS          39KTS
DSHP        20KTS          24KTS          31KTS          39KTS
 
        ...48 HRS...   ...72 HRS...   ...96 HRS. ..   ..120 HRS...
        100828  1200   100829  1200   100830  1200   100831  1200
 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS    14.6N  30.2W   17.0N  37.9W   19.9N  46.1W   25.3N  54.1W
BAMD    13.1N  29.9W   14.7N  36.0W   16.8N  42.6W   19.1N  48.1W
BAMM    14.3N  30.3W   16.2N  37.4W   18.6N  45.1W   23.0N  52.0W
LBAR    12.4N  32.1W   12.8N  39.1W   14.5N  45.5W     .0N    .0W
SHIP        49KTS          65KTS          70KTS          68KTS
DSHP        49KTS          65KTS          70KTS          68KTS
 
         ...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR =  11.5N LONCUR =  19.0W DIRCUR = 275DEG SPDCUR =  13KT
LATM12 =  11.3N LONM12 =  16.5W DIRM12 = 275DEG SPDM12 =  12KT
LATM24 =  11.1N LONM24 =  13.5W
WNDCUR =   20KT RMAXWD =   45NM WNDM12 =   20KT
CENPRS = 1010MB OUTPRS = 1013MB OUTRAD =  175NM SDEPTH =   M
RD34NE =    0NM RD34SE =    0NM RD34SW =    0NM RD34NW =   0NM
 

2:00PM TWO

AN AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE IS
CENTERED ABOUT 450 MILES SOUTHEAST OF THE SOUTHERN CAPE VERDE
ISLANDS. THIS SYSTEM SHOWS SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION...AND
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR CONDUCIVE FOR ADDITIONAL
DEVELOPMENT DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT
15 TO 20 MPH. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

[srainhoutx]

Very impressive...

[srainhoutx]

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A VIGOROUS TROPICAL WAVE
LOCATED ABOUT 350 MILES SOUTHEAST OF THE SOUTHERN CAPE VERDE
ISLANDS HAVE BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS.
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT AND
A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE...60 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT
15 TO 20 MPH.

[srainhoutx]

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WHXX01 KWBC 270056
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0056 UTC FRI AUG 27 2010
 
DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.
 
ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR
 
DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL972010) 20100827 0000 UTC
 
        ...00 HRS...   ...12 HRS...   ...24 HRS. ..   ...36 HRS...
        100827  0000   100827  1200   100828  0000   100828  1200
 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS    11.0N  21.7W   11.5N  23.6W   12.5N  26.0W   13.8N  28.9W
BAMD    11.0N  21.7W   11.2N  24.1W   11.8N  26.4W   12.5N  28.9W
BAMM    11.0N  21.7W   11.5N  24.1W   12.4N  26.7W   13.5N  29.6W
LBAR    11.0N  21.7W   11.2N  24.7W   11.6N  28.0W   11.9N  31.6W
SHIP        25KTS          31KTS          38KTS          47KTS
DSHP        25KTS          31KTS          38KTS          47KTS
 
        ...48 HRS...   ...72 HRS...   ...96 HRS. ..   ..120 HRS...
        100829  0000   100830  0000   100831  0000   100901  0000
 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS    15.3N  32.4W   18.5N  41.0W   22.2N  49.3W   27.1N  55.5W
BAMD    13.4N  31.6W   15.4N  37.9W   17.8N  44.6W   20.5N  49.8W
BAMM    14.6N  33.0W   17.0N  41.4W   20.4N  49.3W   25.6N  55.1W
LBAR    12.1N  35.1W   12.9N  41.6W     .0N    .0W     .0N    .0W
SHIP        57KTS          69KTS          69KTS          65KTS
DSHP        57KTS          69KTS          69KTS          65KTS
 
         ...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR =  11.0N LONCUR =  21.7W DIRCUR = 270DEG SPDCUR =  14KT
LATM12 =  11.2N LONM12 =  18.8W DIRM12 = 266DEG SPDM12 =  12KT
LATM24 =  11.3N LONM24 =  16.5W
WNDCUR =   25KT RMAXWD =   60NM WNDM12 =   20KT
CENPRS = 1010MB OUTPRS = 1013MB OUTRAD =  200NM SDEPTH =   S
RD34NE =    0NM RD34SE =    0NM RD34SW =    0NM RD34NW =   0NM
 

[sleetstorm]

It looks like we may have ourselves a Tropical Storm Fiona in the next few days, everyone.

[sau27]

I know alot of the models are showing Earl following Danielle into the break in the ridge but how long can that stay open. Right now it looks like the models want to send what will be Fiona through that door, but Id have to think that wont stay open for that long. If the NHC is already talking about the possibility of the ridge building back in before Earl gets there wouldn't that make it seem like it is likely to be built in by the time Fiona gets there, thus sending it farther west?

[Ptarmigan]

Looks to be TD8 and Fiona.

[biggerbyte]

Earl still has the potential to go north, or west, depending on a few factors. Fiona, however, has a greater chance of getting much further west. The models have been suggesting Fiona would make it to the Caribbean. That was a few days ago. We'll see how both Earl and Fiona play out.

[srainhoutx]

I would say the 00Z Euro raises an eyebrow...

[srainhoutx]

Seems to be some interest in this disturbance...

A BROAD LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM...ASSOCIATED WITH A VIGOROUS TROPICAL
WAVE...IS CENTERED ABOUT 175 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF THE
SOUTHERNMOST CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. ALTHOUGH THIS LOW HAS CHANGED
LITTLE IN ORGANIZATION DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS...ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR A TROPICAL DEPRESSION TO FORM
DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE...80
PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT 15 MPH.

[srainhoutx]

Code: Select all

WHXX01 KWBC 280058
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0058 UTC SAT AUG 28 2010
 
DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.
 
ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR
 
DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL972010) 20100828 0000 UTC
 
        ...00 HRS...   ...12 HRS...   ...24 HRS. ..   ...36 HRS...
        100828  0000   100828  1200   100829  0000   100829  1200
 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS    12.3N  25.4W   13.6N  28.2W   14.7N  31.7W   15.9N  36.0W
BAMD    12.3N  25.4W   12.9N  28.5W   13.5N  31.7W   14.2N  35.1W
BAMM    12.3N  25.4W   13.3N  28.4W   14.2N  31.7W   15.1N  35.6W
LBAR    12.3N  25.4W   12.8N  28.2W   13.3N  31.4W   13.8N  35.1W
SHIP        25KTS          28KTS          34KTS          43KTS
DSHP        25KTS          28KTS          34KTS          43KTS
 
        ...48 HRS...   ...72 HRS...   ...96 HRS. ..   ..120 HRS...
        100830  0000   100831  0000   100901  0000   100902  0000
 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS    16.9N  40.8W   18.4N  50.3W   22.2N  59.3W   30.3N  66.3W
BAMD    15.0N  38.7W   17.4N  46.3W   20.4N  53.5W   23.2N  59.7W
BAMM    15.9N  39.9W   17.7N  48.8W   20.4N  57.0W   26.3N  63.3W
LBAR    14.4N  38.7W   15.9N  46.4W     .0N    .0W     .0N    .0W
SHIP        49KTS          61KTS          68KTS          71KTS
DSHP        49KTS          61KTS          68KTS          71KTS
 
         ...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR =  12.3N LONCUR =  25.4W DIRCUR = 280DEG SPDCUR =  11KT
LATM12 =  11.9N LONM12 =  23.3W DIRM12 = 280DEG SPDM12 =   9KT
LATM24 =  11.5N LONM24 =  21.4W
WNDCUR =   25KT RMAXWD =   80NM WNDM12 =   25KT
CENPRS = 1009MB OUTPRS = 1013MB OUTRAD =  250NM SDEPTH =   S
RD34NE =    0NM RD34SE =    0NM RD34SW =    0NM RD34NW =   0NM

[srainhoutx]

A BROAD LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM...ASSOCIATED WITH A VIGOROUS TROPICAL
WAVE...IS LOCATED ABOUT 250 MILES SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERNMOST CAPE
VERDE ISLANDS. ALTHOUGH THIS SYSTEM HAS CHANGED LITTLE IN
ORGANIZATION DURING THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS...ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR A TROPICAL DEPRESSION TO FORM
DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE...80
PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT 15 TO 20 MPH.

[srainhoutx]

A BROAD LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM...ASSOCIATED WITH A VIGOROUS TROPICAL
WAVE...IS LOCATED ABOUT 500 MILES WEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE RECENTLY INCREASED NEAR THE
CENTER...AND ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR A
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TO FORM LATER TONIGHT OR SUNDAY. THERE
IS A HIGH CHANCE...80 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD TO WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 20 MPH.

[biggerbyte]

I'm actually more concerned about 97l than Earl, as far as the Gulf. Development could be slow due to Earl and Danielle, but if this makes it into the Caribbean, and then the gulf, the energy will be there for this system to mature rather quickly.

It all depends on what happens with Earl, as well as the ridge building in strong enough to push this that far west. Too early to say for sure what the outcome will be. As with Earl, GOM and western Atlantic coastlines should monitor the situation closely.

[Andrew]

[srainhoutx]

00Z Euro Ensembles at hour 240...



HGX didn't miss it either in morning AFD...

SIMILAR PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
WATCHING TROPICAL SYSTEMS IN THE ATLANTIC AND FOR NOW IT LOOKS
LIKE THEY WILL REMAIN EAST OF THE GULF. WILL KEEP AN EYE ON SYSTEM
EAST OF EARL AS ECMWF WANTS TO SHIFT IT WEST ACROSS FLORIDA IN A
LITTLE OVER A WEEK BUT AM NOT YET CONVINCED THIS FAR OUT. KEPT
ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED POPS IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE
EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD.

[Scott747]

12z Euro is much further S with future Fiona. My private sector source gave me a heads up over 10 days ago that a wave over E/Central Africa would be the one to watch as opposed to Danielle and future Earl as a possible Caribbean and long shot Gulf system.

[Scott747]

Even though I'm a model lover I'm always apprehensive to post certain model runs. Take this only as extremely long range guidance with a better chance of NOT verifying. 939 system in the Central Gulf....

[Andrew]

Even though I'm a model lover I'm always apprehensive to post certain model runs. Take this only as extremely long range guidance with a better chance of NOT verifying. 939 system in the Central Gulf....

http://i836.photobucket.com/albums/zz29 ... 1283108607

We might need to watch this one.

[Scott747]

Even though I'm a model lover I'm always apprehensive to post certain model runs. Take this only as extremely long range guidance with a better chance of NOT verifying. 939 system in the Central Gulf....

http://i836.photobucket.com/albums/zz29 ... 1283108607

We might need to watch this one.

This has been the only one that has really interested me from either a chase perspective (will wait for IMBY worries much later) than the previous two storms. Must admit Earl is getting somewhat further to the W than I expected but still looks to miss the CONUS.

With that said... While the Euro is definitely troubling if taken literally we all know how quickly it and the other models can change their guidance. The Euro keeps shifting further W and S. For all we know it could show future Fiona headed towards C America in the next few runs. Can't wait for the upgrade and to get the first insight on what the NHC thoughts will be. With such a wide range between the Euro and GFS the TVCN track I generally rely on is all over the place.