December 2022

[Cpv17]

Ensembles look terrible. I’m sure we’ll get something within the next couple weeks but definitely don’t see anything impressive headed our way. Still hopeful but my confidence level definitely decreased some today.

[Stratton20]

The polar vortex is expected to weaken in the next several weeks, their of course will be lots of volatility in the models, im not buying the ensembles ,it its going to take 2-3 weeks but the cold will come, my confidence level is around 50-60%, this is a pattern that takes time to change, but I do expect to see changes in the weeks ahead

We already have one positive, the trends have been for the SE Ridge to get squashed in the medium range, that is just one piece of the puzzle, but its a start

Another positive is that the PNA looks to trend and stay close to neutral in the coming weeks for a while as a ridge builds out west in response, we can see that in the GFS

[Cpv17]

The polar vortex is expected to weaken in the next several weeks, their of course will be lots of volatility in the models, im not buying the ensembles ,it its going to take 2-3 weeks but the cold will come, my confidence level is around 50-60%, this is a pattern that takes time to change, but I do expect to see changes in the weeks ahead

We already have one positive, the trends have been for the SE Ridge to get squashed in the medium range, that is just one piece of the puzzle, but its a start

Another positive is that the PNA looks to trend and stay close to neutral in the coming weeks for a while as a ridge builds out west in response, we can see that in the GFS

That dang Aleutian ridge is screwing up a perfect opportunity. Hopefully we start seeing an improvement on that.

[Stratton20]

Cpv17 I agree that ridge placement is not in a good spot, but i think ita going to change over the next several weeks, plus the end of the 12z Euro does have a very cold airmass building in in western canada, so irs not like models have dropped it yet

[MontgomeryCoWx]

Ensembles look terrible. I’m sure we’ll get something within the next couple weeks but definitely don’t see anything impressive headed our way. Still hopeful but my confidence level definitely decreased some today.

LOL, y’all live and die with each model run.

Euro looks just fine. Canadian too. I don’t even look at the GFS past 5 days.

[Cpv17]

Ensembles look terrible. I’m sure we’ll get something within the next couple weeks but definitely don’t see anything impressive headed our way. Still hopeful but my confidence level definitely decreased some today.

LOL, y’all live and die with each model run.

Euro looks just fine. Canadian too. I don’t even look at the GFS past 5 days.

I’ve yet to see a model run or any ensemble run that look very favorable for us. All I’ve seen is a bunch of Twitter talk and YouTubers that hype up everything. The ridge placement over the Aleutians is not going to bring us cold down here no matter what the AO, PNA, or NAO does. Give me proof and actual science and not just a bunch of talk/hype. I’ve seen this talk and hype too many times fail to come to fruition. That’s why I’ve learned to be skeptical about it.

[Cpv17]

MCW, you’re a smart dude. Explain to us what you’re seeing. Educate. You’ve gone in depth before, do it again please lol

I know a decent amount about the weather but don’t think I’m on your level yet lol

I miss srain!

[MontgomeryCoWx]

You’re missing the recipe completely and focusing on model to model run.

AAM collapsing, ridge bridging, warm pool in PAC, and no one is discussing the cryosphere and the Tongan explosion effects on our upper levels.

AAM is going to lock in long term ridges. With our AO and NAO in place, we don’t need a severe negative EPO… just a somewhat favorable one. PNA looks in our favor and even if it wasn’t we would still be below average with the above ingredients.

There’s a reason why some of the studs in the industry are confident.

[Ptarmigan]

You’re missing the recipe completely and focusing on model to model run.

AAM collapsing, ridge bridging, warm pool in PAC, and no one is discussing the cryosphere and the Tongan explosion effects on our upper levels.

AAM is going to lock in long term ridges. With our AO and NAO in place, we don’t need a severe negative EPO… just a somewhat favorable one. PNA looks in our favor and even if it wasn’t we would still be below average with the above ingredients.

There’s a reason why some of the studs in the industry are confident.

I have seen cold blasts where EPO was positive, while NAO and AO are negative. Or vice versa where EPO was negative and NAO and AO are negative. Same goes with PNA. The warm pool off the coast of Alaska favors negative EPO.

[MontgomeryCoWx]

You’re missing the recipe completely and focusing on model to model run.

AAM collapsing, ridge bridging, warm pool in PAC, and no one is discussing the cryosphere and the Tongan explosion effects on our upper levels.

AAM is going to lock in long term ridges. With our AO and NAO in place, we don’t need a severe negative EPO… just a somewhat favorable one. PNA looks in our favor and even if it wasn’t we would still be below average with the above ingredients.

There’s a reason why some of the studs in the industry are confident.

I have seen cold blasts where EPO was positive, while NAO and AO are negative. Or vice versa where EPO was negative and NAO and AO are negative. Same goes with PNA. The warm pool off the coast of Alaska favors negative EPO.

The positive EPO blasts just ooze and bleed slowly down.

[Cpv17]

You’re missing the recipe completely and focusing on model to model run.

AAM collapsing, ridge bridging, warm pool in PAC, and no one is discussing the cryosphere and the Tongan explosion effects on our upper levels.

AAM is going to lock in long term ridges. With our AO and NAO in place, we don’t need a severe negative EPO… just a somewhat favorable one. PNA looks in our favor and even if it wasn’t we would still be below average with the above ingredients.

There’s a reason why some of the studs in the industry are confident.

I have seen cold blasts where EPO was positive, while NAO and AO are negative. Or vice versa where EPO was negative and NAO and AO are negative. Same goes with PNA. The warm pool off the coast of Alaska favors negative EPO.

I have never heard of a cold blast coming from a positive EPO in my life. I don’t even see really how that’s scientifically possible. Guess this goes to show you I’m still very much a novice when it comes to the weather lol.

I’ve also never heard of AAM or the cryosphere

I know nothing about that. I hate when other people know so much more than me. Makes me feel dumb. Got some learning to do!

I’m not really focusing on the models run to run though. I just try to look at all the model runs throughout the entire day (CMC, Euro, GFS, GEFS, EPS) and kinda average them all out. I also look at the 6-10 day and 8-14 day CPC outlooks. I just haven’t seen anything on a consistent basis that gets me excited for anything. It’s hard for me to believe something and buy into it till I start seeing it cuz to me all that is is just talk. It seems like we’ve been talking about this for weeks already and it keeps getting pushed back. You’d figure by now it would start to show up on the CPC outlooks and see hints of it on the models. How much longer do we have to wait till it starts showing up in their outlooks and on the models? I’ve bought into this talk before and been burned so I have my guard up. That’s just how I defend myself from getting upset if it doesn’t happen.

The teleconnections are all lining up (-AO, -NAO, -EPO, trending towards a neutral PNA). So why aren’t we seeing anything on the models yet? Well the only thing I can see is because there’s not enough ridging over eastern Alaska and NW Canada.

[MontgomeryCoWx]

How many times do models flip flop when you’re 7 plus days out and a pattern change is taking place?

You know the answer. It’s a lot.

I wouldn’t fret about it not happening unless we get to 12/8-12/10 and you’re not seeing ensembles buy in.

I’d say my confidence of this happening (below average to well below from the 12th on at a 8/10 confidence.

A 5 is high in the weather world. 8 is pretty damn sure.

What I’m not sure of is projection of cold. Will we be 10 below normal or 20-30 for a good stretch? That’s my million dollar question

[Stratton20]

And the other question is will the southern branch be active with any arctic air moving in

[MontgomeryCoWx]

As for AAM. Here’s a good tweet from Eric Webb on it.

“Global mountain torque getting driven into the floor this week.

Overall, this signals a forthcoming decrease in Atmospheric Angular Momentum (AAMa), favoring slow, meandering jet streams, wave breaking, & high-latitude blocking (-NAO & -EPO) the next few-several weeks”


Simplest way to describe a longer term pattern lock. Not the only variable but an important one.

[MontgomeryCoWx]

And the other question is will the southern branch be active with any arctic air moving in

Another great question. Too early to be confident one way or the other. If you want to look at the pretty CFS maps, it says it will be somewhat active.

[Stratton20]

12z Euro took a good step in the right direction for cold air, now breaks down the SE Ridge and develops a ridge out in the west in response to the PNA going neutral, also has ridging in a better position over alaska compared to prior runs although not perfect yet, strong blocking over Greenland, cold air begins to build in Canada, definitely an encouraging run

[MontgomeryCoWx]

Watch that Greenland block. If it sets up over proper Gree land then it forces a positive PNA.

Right now the models want to set it up South and east of proper Greenland which pushes a neutral PNA.

[Ptarmigan]

You’re missing the recipe completely and focusing on model to model run.

AAM collapsing, ridge bridging, warm pool in PAC, and no one is discussing the cryosphere and the Tongan explosion effects on our upper levels.

AAM is going to lock in long term ridges. With our AO and NAO in place, we don’t need a severe negative EPO… just a somewhat favorable one. PNA looks in our favor and even if it wasn’t we would still be below average with the above ingredients.

There’s a reason why some of the studs in the industry are confident.

I have seen cold blasts where EPO was positive, while NAO and AO are negative. Or vice versa where EPO was negative and NAO and AO are negative. Same goes with PNA. The warm pool off the coast of Alaska favors negative EPO.

I have never heard of a cold blast coming from a positive EPO in my life. I don’t even see really how that’s scientifically possible. Guess this goes to show you I’m still very much a novice when it comes to the weather lol.

I’ve also never heard of AAM or the cryosphere

I know nothing about that. I hate when other people know so much more than me. Makes me feel dumb. Got some learning to do!

I’m not really focusing on the models run to run though. I just try to look at all the model runs throughout the entire day (CMC, Euro, GFS, GEFS, EPS) and kinda average them all out. I also look at the 6-10 day and 8-14 day CPC outlooks. I just haven’t seen anything on a consistent basis that gets me excited for anything. It’s hard for me to believe something and buy into it till I start seeing it cuz to me all that is is just talk. It seems like we’ve been talking about this for weeks already and it keeps getting pushed back. You’d figure by now it would start to show up on the CPC outlooks and see hints of it on the models. How much longer do we have to wait till it starts showing up in their outlooks and on the models? I’ve bought into this talk before and been burned so I have my guard up. That’s just how I defend myself from getting upset if it doesn’t happen.

The teleconnections are all lining up (-AO, -NAO, -EPO, trending towards a neutral PNA). So why aren’t we seeing anything on the models yet? Well the only thing I can see is because there’s not enough ridging over eastern Alaska and NW Canada.

Most cold blasts have occurred in negative EPO. What I am saying is that negative EPO is not the only factor. NAO, AO, and PNA are also a factor.

20th Century Reanalysis Daily Composites
https://psl.noaa.gov/cgi-bin/data/compo ... .day.v2.pl

Eastern Pacific Oscillation (EPO)
https://downloads.psl.noaa.gov/Public/m ... resent.txt

Some cold blasts have occurred where EPO was positive. December 1963, January 1964, and January 1985.

[MontgomeryCoWx]

Good snow depth in the plains and east central Midwest, block south east of Greenland, neutral ENSO and a severe -AO would deliver the cold goods to us.

Wouldn’t need a negative EPO for that but you couldn’t have a raging positive EPO.

When you think about it, sub freezing cold down here during the daylight hours is like threading a needle.

[Cpv17]

I have seen cold blasts where EPO was positive, while NAO and AO are negative. Or vice versa where EPO was negative and NAO and AO are negative. Same goes with PNA. The warm pool off the coast of Alaska favors negative EPO.

I have never heard of a cold blast coming from a positive EPO in my life. I don’t even see really how that’s scientifically possible. Guess this goes to show you I’m still very much a novice when it comes to the weather lol.

I’ve also never heard of AAM or the cryosphere

I know nothing about that. I hate when other people know so much more than me. Makes me feel dumb. Got some learning to do!

I’m not really focusing on the models run to run though. I just try to look at all the model runs throughout the entire day (CMC, Euro, GFS, GEFS, EPS) and kinda average them all out. I also look at the 6-10 day and 8-14 day CPC outlooks. I just haven’t seen anything on a consistent basis that gets me excited for anything. It’s hard for me to believe something and buy into it till I start seeing it cuz to me all that is is just talk. It seems like we’ve been talking about this for weeks already and it keeps getting pushed back. You’d figure by now it would start to show up on the CPC outlooks and see hints of it on the models. How much longer do we have to wait till it starts showing up in their outlooks and on the models? I’ve bought into this talk before and been burned so I have my guard up. That’s just how I defend myself from getting upset if it doesn’t happen.

The teleconnections are all lining up (-AO, -NAO, -EPO, trending towards a neutral PNA). So why aren’t we seeing anything on the models yet? Well the only thing I can see is because there’s not enough ridging over eastern Alaska and NW Canada.

Most cold blasts have occurred in negative EPO. What I am saying is that negative EPO is not the only factor. NAO, AO, and PNA are also a factor.

20th Century Reanalysis Daily Composites
https://psl.noaa.gov/cgi-bin/data/compo ... .day.v2.pl

Eastern Pacific Oscillation (EPO)
https://downloads.psl.noaa.gov/Public/m ... resent.txt

Some cold blasts have occurred where EPO was positive. December 1963, January 1964, and January 1985.

I didn’t really start paying much attention to the weather till maybe 2010 so that’s well before my time lol

The EPO imo is the single most important factor in determining our winter weather. The ridging was positioned perfectly for the cold blast we had in November.