000
FXUS64 KHGX 101127
AFDHGX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
527 AM CST Thu Nov 10 2022
...New AVIATION...
.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Friday Night)
Issued at 232 AM CST Thu Nov 10 2022
We`ve had fog on 4 out of 5 of my mid shifts so far, and we`re gonna
make it 5 out of 6 on tonight too. Now I`m not saying that the fog
is necessarily my fault...but the numbers don`t lie.
#FogWeek continues this morning as the synoptic pattern is fairly
similar to the past few days. The most impacted areas so for are in
our southwestern and western counties, but nighttime microphysics
satellite shows the fog/low level clouds expanding northward towards
the Brazos Valley and Piney Woods area. There is not a Dense Fog
Advisory in effect right now, but that could quickly change. Any fog
that develops will burn off around 9 AM CST. Ridging aloft is no
longer in place by this afternoon as an upper level trough and
embedded low skirts across the Northern Plains and Tropical Storm
Nicole continues its track through Florida.
Now why in the world am I mentioning Nicole when its main impacts
are in the Southeastern CONUS? Well...drier air wrapping around the
northwestern quadrant of the tropical cyclone is gradually moving
towards us from the east. This is best seen through satellite
derived PW values or water vapor imagery. The drier air won`t make
it all the way through Southeast TX though as it gets blocked by
construction on I-45...realistically the dry air stopping its
westward movement is due to Nicole taking a more northward
trajectory and heading towards the Carolinas. This dry air doesn`t
look like it`ll arrive early enough to give us cooler temps (upper
50s) this morning out east unfortunately, but areas east of I-45
will get to enjoy mostly clear skies instead of partly cloudy skies
like the rest of us...it`s something! With the ridge now gone, we`ll
see high temperatures this afternoon in the low 80s. Areas near
Matagorda Bay will see another round of isolated showers this
afternoon with lingering PVA and PW values around 1.2"-1.3". Low
temperatures tonight will range from the low 60s out east to the mid
60s out west. And it goes without saying, but another round of fog
is expected for tonight as well with both the SREF and NBM in
agreement. I know what you`re all here for...let`s talk about FROPA.
The wedge of drier air retreats back eastward early Friday morning
as PW values begin to surge near and slightly over the 90th
percentile (~1.61") over the Brazos Valley/Piney Woods areas ahead
of an approaching strong cold front. There is fairly good agreement
on FROPA timing between 00Z model guidance: ~12pm in the Brazos
Valley/Piney Woods area, ~3-5pm in the Houston metro area, and off
the coast around ~7-8pm. Showers and thunderstorms will accompany
the frontal boundary, and thanks to isentropic lift we`ll have
lingering stratiform rain behind the front that persists into Friday
night. Daytime fronts always pose a forecasting challenge as
temperatures fall throughout the day in its wake, so there`s quite
the spread of high temperatures from upper 60s/low 70s up north to
low 80s south of I-10 (thanks to prefrontal heating). Additionally,
moderate to strong northerly winds follow in the wake of the front
as strong CAA prevails through the night. We`ll be fairly close to
Wind Advisory territory for the barrier islands on Friday night.
Overnight temperatures on Friday will be cold with lows ranging from
the upper 30s/low 40s up north to the upper 40s along the coast.
Sweater weather is making a comeback...and will actually stick
around for a while! More on that down below.
Batiste
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through Wednesday)
Issued at 232 AM CST Thu Nov 10 2022
Hello weekend, and boy will it be a cold start, for Southeast TX
at least
. So forget sweater weather cuz we will probably need
to go straight to wool coat weather given that temperatures will
be in the upper 30s to upper 40s around sunrise on Saturday
morning. Top that with 10 to 15 mph winds and higher gusts, you
will want to bundle up if you plan on any outdoor activities.
Temperatures will warm up a bit during the day as clouds scatter
out and let some sunshine in, but highs will only reach the upper
50s to low 60s for most of the local area. An even colder night is
expected Saturday night with lows dipping in the mid 30s to low
40s along areas north of I-10, the mid to upper 40s along south of
I-10, and in the upper 40 to low 50s along the coasts. Probably a
good time for a bonfire night? Some isolated areas in and around
Houston County may even see some frost. The fair weather
conditions will prevail Sunday, with winds turning east and
gradually decreasing during the day. The highs will be a few
degrees warmer, although still in the upper 50s to low 60s.
A coastal low will develop along the Lower TX Coast late Sunday
and will move northeast and across our coastal area on Monday,
returning ample moisture and rain chances over Southeast TX. In
addition to the coastal low, an upper level shortwave will be
moving eastward across the Southern Plains and looks to push a
cold front across the local area sometime Monday afternoon or
evening and may enhance shower and thunderstorm activity during
the day. Another thing to note is that we will probably have a
sharp gradient in temperatures on Monday as the warm air mass in
association to the coastal low increases the highs up to the upper
60s and low 70s over areas south of I-10, while areas to the
north stay in the upper 50s to mid 60s as the cold front moves
through that region in the afternoon. These values may slightly
change if the front is actually faster/slower than what is
currently forecasted. Conditions will improve Monday night as the
both the coastal low moves east and out of our local waters and
the cold front pushes into the offshore waters. Another push of
cold and dry air will lead to highs in the low 50s to mid 50 over
areas north of I-10 and in the mid to low 60s south of I-10 on
Tuesday. Winds will also strengthen in the wake of the front so
the breezy conditions will make it feel a bit colder.
For mid week, the global models are doing the dramatic sibling
vibes with one wanting something completely opposite of the other.
We have the GFS spinning up another coastal low over the Lower TX
Coast and brining in PWs of 1.5 to 1.6 inches, while the ECMWF
keeps us dry with PWs of 0.6 to 0.8 inches. The upper level
solution is also a tad bit different. Thus, I put them both on
time out, and went with a blend (for the PoPs) until we can get a
better model consensus.
24
&&
.AVIATION...
(12Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 527 AM CST Thu Nov 10 2022
Patchy fog will be the main headline over the next few hours with
most sites experiencing reduced visibilities. LBX, IAH, and CXO
have had the most impacts overnight with those sites occasionally
reaching LIFR. Any fog that develops will burn off around 15Z.
Southeasterly winds will prevail today around 5-10 knots then
become light and variable again after sunset. Model guidance is
hinting at another round of fog for tonight, so I`ve done the same
for most TAFs after 09Z. I went a bit more aggressive on the usual
trouble spots of LBX/CXO and introduced 5/6SM BR after 06Z. As per
usual, the fog will dissipate around 15Z. Be on the lookout in
future TAF packages for details relating to an incoming strong
cold front on Friday afternoon. This includes breezy northerly
winds and showers/storms.
Batiste
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 232 AM CST Thu Nov 10 2022
Light to moderate east and southeast winds will prevail across the
bays and Gulf waters through Friday morning along with seas of 3
to 5 feet. Tide levels will be slightly elevated these next few
days and could result in some minor coastal flooding, but
confidence of how much water will actually move up is low at this
time, thus, will hold off on issuing a Coastal Flood Advisory for
now. In addition, there is the potential for strong rip currents
along the Gulf facing beaches and a High Rip Current Risk
Statement could be issued.
A cold front will move into the waters Friday afternoon and will
bring periods of showers and isolated thunderstorms Friday
afternoon through Saturday morning. Moderate to strong north to
northeast winds and elevated seas will develop Friday night into
Saturday and will likely require Advisories to be issued. Chance
for rain will prevail throughout the weekend and into early next
week as the front stalls over the Gulf waters and a coastal low
develops over the Lower TX coasts. The low will move across our
local waters Monday and will be followed by another cold front
pushing into the coast later that day. This will bring back the
moderate to occasionally strong winds in the wake of the front,
thus, will likely carry Caution Flags and/or Advisories through at
least Wednesday.
24
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 82 65 70 40 / 10 0 80 40
Houston (IAH) 83 64 80 47 / 0 0 70 70
Galveston (GLS) 79 69 77 51 / 0 0 40 70
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&
$$
).