October 2022

[Cpv17]

We are driving out to central Texas and were hoping to leave Houston at 6 AM. Do we need to leave earlier? Trying to avoid navigating through the worst of it.

Go on Tropical Tidbits and look at the mesoscale models.

[jasons2k]

NWS has 100% chance of rain in the forecast for Friday. Wow. Mostly in the AM.

The last time I had a 100% chance of rain from the NWS, I got two drops on the driveway.

[Stratton20]

more like 100% chance that the rain will go around me or last for 5 minutes, ill believe this system when i see it, i got maybe 10 minutes of rain with the last storm system

[NWHouston]

The day started out with 70% Chance of rain tonight and 90% tomorrow. Rain is now gone from forecast for tonight.
I wouldn't be overly surprised if we only get a light passing shower again in the Spring area

[don]

The 18Z HRRR showing widespread rainfall amounts of 1-2 inches.With some isolated areas getting 3-4 inches. I feel pretty confident in saying that most of us will receive more rain than we did earlier this week.This is not the same setup as earlier this week.Unlike Monday's setup where the surface low was way in Oklahoma this time the surface low will be directly over us in SE Texas. How much though is yet TBD of course.Saying that theirs still the possibility of the surface low developing too far offshore and robbing us of moisture.(BTW if you look at satellite you can see the coastal trough already developing in South Texas.)

[jasons2k]

3 inches here? I haven’t seen that in years.

Yeah right.

[suprdav2]

I mean, ch 13 DID issue the obligatory "weather alert day" for tomorrow. That pretty much means nothing is going to happen.

[Stormlover2020]

more like 100% chance that the rain will go around me or last for 5 minutes, ill believe this system when i see it, i got maybe 10 minutes of rain with the last storm system

This is what u always say

[Stratton20]

StormLover2020 because its the truth lol, every time a storm gets close to me, it always splits into two cells and goes around my area or it weakens and maybe I get 15 minutes of brief heavy rain, havent seen at least an inch of rain in weeks

[MH5]

Hope the NAM 3k 18Z run hits the jackpot. Shows pretty much all of Harris Co in the 3-4" range. It's more bullish with the moisture in the morning feeding up into the low before the main line comes through later in the day.

[Cromagnum]

I'm betting money the coastal low goes wild and robs the moisture from us all over again like the almost tropical system did early in cane season.

[Cpv17]

I'm betting money the coastal low goes wild and robs the moisture from us all over again like the almost tropical system did early in cane season.

The biggest totals might be offshore but I expect widespread 1-2” totals over most of the area with isolated 3-5” pockets.

[jasons2k]

Showers firing in the coastal bend and trekking this way.

[Stratton20]

probably going to stay offshore

[jasons2k]

probably going to stay offshore

No this is lift being induced by the LLJ cranking up with UL divergence. It will spread NNE towards Houston metro. Quickly too.

[DoctorMu]

Streamer showers tomorrow in the morning; then a line of storms about midday.

[Stratton20]

hopefully that “ line will come through later in the evening

[jasons2k]

That ULL in New Mexico is diving due south right now.

[Cpv17]

It’s already raining over here. Just had a moderate shower pass through.

[DoctorMu]

hopefully that “ line will come through later in the evening

The line of showers will be coming through College Station in the morning.