Lol I feel that.
October 2022
-
tireman4
- Global Moderator
- Posts: 6022
- Joined: Wed Feb 03, 2010 9:24 pm
- Location: Humble, Texas
- Contact:
000
FXUS64 KHGX 191127
AFDHGX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
627 AM CDT Wed Oct 19 2022
...New AVIATION...
.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Thursday Night)
Issued at 255 AM CDT Wed Oct 19 2022
Despite a relatively chilly start this morning, temperatures will
gradually climb to the upper 60s with a few isolated areas reaching
the low 70s. Similar conditions expected again tonight with clear
skies and temperatures cooling off rapidly, but sfc high pressure
overhead will begin to slide east, and northerly flow will gradually
switch to southwesterly flow. Therefore, overnight lows will be a
few degrees warmer tonight with lows reaching the low to mid 40s
across most of Southeast Texas with the exception of our
northeastern counties dipping into the upper 30s.
As previously mentioned, the surface high pressure departing will
usher in southwesterly surface flow on Thursday, which will advect a
warmer, but still dry, air mass. Temperatures will rapidly increase
and daytime highs will reach the low 80s. However, dewpoint values
in the 40s will still keep RH values near 25-35%, so at least it
won`t feel too humid...yet... Overnight lows on Thursday will start
to creep back up and reach the low to mid 50s for most inland
locations, but near 60 along the coast.
Walts
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Friday through Tuesday)
Issued at 255 AM CDT Wed Oct 19 2022
Friday morning probably gives us our last vestiges of this colder,
drier, post-frontal regime. We`ll start with most of the area
still in the 50s except at the coast, likely already seeing a low
more around 70 (Sorry, Galveston). But with high pressure making
its way east towards the other side of the Gulf, we can expect
solid onshore flow to become established and begin returning us to
a warmer, humid airmass more reminiscent of late-summer or early
fall than solidly into October. Though the sun angle is becoming
daily less effective, the sky will be pretty clear and the more
marine, tropical airmass pushing in should help most everyone
reach the middle 80s. Not a lot above average, but enough to
notice.
For the most part, expectations for the weekend are pretty much
the same as last night. I`d expect winds to back a little more as
the surface high commands the Southeast US, while a new surface
low begins to spin up over the Central Plains thanks to a lead
shortwave trough ahead of a beefier upper low. This will tighten
the pressure gradient, helping to bump up wind speeds and more
efficiently humidify the area into the weekend. This should make
Saturday`s lows more of an upper 50s to 60s affair, and Sunday`s
lows even higher in the 60s and lower 70s. The warming trend can
also be expected to hold, but probably not so dramatic. While we
might see a few isolated spots reach 90 degrees in the drier
northwest, most all of the inland area looks to hold in the upper
80s and the coast lagging even a few degrees behind those.
By Monday, we may start to see the first inkling of change with
the upper trough making its way off the Rockies, helping to
further spin up the low and drop its attendant cold front into
North Texas. That`s not going to directly impact our area, but I`d
expect more synoptic upglide over the region to couple with deeper
moisture to allow for increased cloud development and even a
chance of rain, though probably scattered and not particularly
heavy. Low temperatures will remain fairly high, and high
temperatures may only moderate slightly.
It`s into Tuesday and the middle of the week where things start to
get more difficult. In the broad sense, we do have a fairly high
sense of confidence in what`s going to happen: we`ll get an
interaction with the above discussed upper trough, another
shortwave trough making its way through the southern stream, and
the arrival of the remnants of some sort of tropical moisture from
the Eastern Pacific (currently Invest 90E off the southern coast
of Mexico). The details of this intricate interplay, however, are
quite fuzzy and probably aren`t likely to be resolved here in the
long term portion of the forecast. It does seem that guidance is
backing away from a completely dry scenario in which all three
features completely miss each other and the front never even makes
it into Southeast Texas. So I am feeling more confident in writing
that scenario off. But the precise phasing here is still highly
uncertain, and will play an important role in the timing and
intensity of this frontal passage, as well as the amount of
rainfall, strength of storms, and significance of post-frontal
cold air.
For now, there`s not much value I can add to a statistically-
corrected blend of the guidance, so I don`t stray very much from
the NBM right now. It`s good enough to show the expected, big
picture trend while we`re 6-8 days out. As we get a better handle
on the phasing potential of the three major features (hopefully
sooner than later, but probably don`t hold your breath) it will be
easier to support the move of the forecast in a particular
direction.
Luchs
&&
.AVIATION...
(12Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 620 AM CDT Wed Oct 19 2022
VFR conditions will prevail. Northerly winds 6-8kts will become
light and variable overnight. High pressure moving out early
Thursday morning will cause winds to become southwesterly on
Thursday and southeasterly by Friday.
Walts
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 255 AM CDT Wed Oct 19 2022
Moderate to strong northeast winds of around 15 to 25 knots
continue to persist across the bays and coastal waters, while seas
remain at around 5 to 7 feet. Though winds are beginning to slowly
diminish, there are enough advisory-level winds that the small
craft advisory will be left in place through mid-morning.
Occasional gusts to gale force remain possible during this time
frame, particularly in the very early morning hours. Winds and
seas will generally be highest in these pre-dawn hours, with slow
and gradual diminishing through the day as surface high pressure
moves into the area. The advisory will likely need to be replaced
with a SCEC for at least a portion of the waters as winds and seas
continue to slowly come down, but will leave that decision to the
incoming shift to base off of observations at the time the
advisory expires.
We can expect southwesterly winds to begin sometime during the day
Thursday, with more fully onshore flow anticipated by the
weekend. Another cold front will be coming into the region, so we
can anticipate caution flags being necessary at some point this
weekend as it draws nearer and tightens the pressure gradient.
Looking even farther out, we should expect that front to reach the
waters towards mid-week, likely Tuesday night or Wednesday.
Luchs
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 68 46 84 56 / 0 0 0 0
Houston (IAH) 68 44 82 58 / 0 0 0 0
Galveston (GLS) 67 59 77 70 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM CDT this morning for GMZ330-335-
350-355-370-375.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...16
LONG TERM....25
AVIATION...16
FXUS64 KHGX 191127
AFDHGX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
627 AM CDT Wed Oct 19 2022
...New AVIATION...
.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Thursday Night)
Issued at 255 AM CDT Wed Oct 19 2022
Despite a relatively chilly start this morning, temperatures will
gradually climb to the upper 60s with a few isolated areas reaching
the low 70s. Similar conditions expected again tonight with clear
skies and temperatures cooling off rapidly, but sfc high pressure
overhead will begin to slide east, and northerly flow will gradually
switch to southwesterly flow. Therefore, overnight lows will be a
few degrees warmer tonight with lows reaching the low to mid 40s
across most of Southeast Texas with the exception of our
northeastern counties dipping into the upper 30s.
As previously mentioned, the surface high pressure departing will
usher in southwesterly surface flow on Thursday, which will advect a
warmer, but still dry, air mass. Temperatures will rapidly increase
and daytime highs will reach the low 80s. However, dewpoint values
in the 40s will still keep RH values near 25-35%, so at least it
won`t feel too humid...yet... Overnight lows on Thursday will start
to creep back up and reach the low to mid 50s for most inland
locations, but near 60 along the coast.
Walts
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Friday through Tuesday)
Issued at 255 AM CDT Wed Oct 19 2022
Friday morning probably gives us our last vestiges of this colder,
drier, post-frontal regime. We`ll start with most of the area
still in the 50s except at the coast, likely already seeing a low
more around 70 (Sorry, Galveston). But with high pressure making
its way east towards the other side of the Gulf, we can expect
solid onshore flow to become established and begin returning us to
a warmer, humid airmass more reminiscent of late-summer or early
fall than solidly into October. Though the sun angle is becoming
daily less effective, the sky will be pretty clear and the more
marine, tropical airmass pushing in should help most everyone
reach the middle 80s. Not a lot above average, but enough to
notice.
For the most part, expectations for the weekend are pretty much
the same as last night. I`d expect winds to back a little more as
the surface high commands the Southeast US, while a new surface
low begins to spin up over the Central Plains thanks to a lead
shortwave trough ahead of a beefier upper low. This will tighten
the pressure gradient, helping to bump up wind speeds and more
efficiently humidify the area into the weekend. This should make
Saturday`s lows more of an upper 50s to 60s affair, and Sunday`s
lows even higher in the 60s and lower 70s. The warming trend can
also be expected to hold, but probably not so dramatic. While we
might see a few isolated spots reach 90 degrees in the drier
northwest, most all of the inland area looks to hold in the upper
80s and the coast lagging even a few degrees behind those.
By Monday, we may start to see the first inkling of change with
the upper trough making its way off the Rockies, helping to
further spin up the low and drop its attendant cold front into
North Texas. That`s not going to directly impact our area, but I`d
expect more synoptic upglide over the region to couple with deeper
moisture to allow for increased cloud development and even a
chance of rain, though probably scattered and not particularly
heavy. Low temperatures will remain fairly high, and high
temperatures may only moderate slightly.
It`s into Tuesday and the middle of the week where things start to
get more difficult. In the broad sense, we do have a fairly high
sense of confidence in what`s going to happen: we`ll get an
interaction with the above discussed upper trough, another
shortwave trough making its way through the southern stream, and
the arrival of the remnants of some sort of tropical moisture from
the Eastern Pacific (currently Invest 90E off the southern coast
of Mexico). The details of this intricate interplay, however, are
quite fuzzy and probably aren`t likely to be resolved here in the
long term portion of the forecast. It does seem that guidance is
backing away from a completely dry scenario in which all three
features completely miss each other and the front never even makes
it into Southeast Texas. So I am feeling more confident in writing
that scenario off. But the precise phasing here is still highly
uncertain, and will play an important role in the timing and
intensity of this frontal passage, as well as the amount of
rainfall, strength of storms, and significance of post-frontal
cold air.
For now, there`s not much value I can add to a statistically-
corrected blend of the guidance, so I don`t stray very much from
the NBM right now. It`s good enough to show the expected, big
picture trend while we`re 6-8 days out. As we get a better handle
on the phasing potential of the three major features (hopefully
sooner than later, but probably don`t hold your breath) it will be
easier to support the move of the forecast in a particular
direction.
Luchs
&&
.AVIATION...
(12Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 620 AM CDT Wed Oct 19 2022
VFR conditions will prevail. Northerly winds 6-8kts will become
light and variable overnight. High pressure moving out early
Thursday morning will cause winds to become southwesterly on
Thursday and southeasterly by Friday.
Walts
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 255 AM CDT Wed Oct 19 2022
Moderate to strong northeast winds of around 15 to 25 knots
continue to persist across the bays and coastal waters, while seas
remain at around 5 to 7 feet. Though winds are beginning to slowly
diminish, there are enough advisory-level winds that the small
craft advisory will be left in place through mid-morning.
Occasional gusts to gale force remain possible during this time
frame, particularly in the very early morning hours. Winds and
seas will generally be highest in these pre-dawn hours, with slow
and gradual diminishing through the day as surface high pressure
moves into the area. The advisory will likely need to be replaced
with a SCEC for at least a portion of the waters as winds and seas
continue to slowly come down, but will leave that decision to the
incoming shift to base off of observations at the time the
advisory expires.
We can expect southwesterly winds to begin sometime during the day
Thursday, with more fully onshore flow anticipated by the
weekend. Another cold front will be coming into the region, so we
can anticipate caution flags being necessary at some point this
weekend as it draws nearer and tightens the pressure gradient.
Looking even farther out, we should expect that front to reach the
waters towards mid-week, likely Tuesday night or Wednesday.
Luchs
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 68 46 84 56 / 0 0 0 0
Houston (IAH) 68 44 82 58 / 0 0 0 0
Galveston (GLS) 67 59 77 70 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM CDT this morning for GMZ330-335-
350-355-370-375.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...16
LONG TERM....25
AVIATION...16
Opened all the windows and was finally able to air the house out last night. First break the AC has had in months.
It's nice, isn't it? DP of 19°F late this morning. Another Chamber of Commerce day today.
I'd say we're turning the franchise around, but there's nasty return flow this weekend before the next FROPA. The trough will be digging deep, so I'm a little more optimistic about some rain with the passage.
There's some disagreement among the models in time and chance of rain with the next FROPA among the models...
However, the the potential lead is buried...that is some EPAC tropical moisture...that could feed into along a stalled or slow moving front.
I doubt we see an October 1994 scenario, but something to keep an eye on.
00
FXUS64 KHGX 192011
AFDHGX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
311 PM CDT Wed Oct 19 2022
...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...
.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Thursday Night)
Issued at 306 PM CDT Wed Oct 19 2022
It`s been an all around gorgeous day across SE TX as high
pressure remains overhead, with light north winds and observed
afternoon temperatures in the mid to upper 60s thus far.
Overnight, winds will become light and variable while continued
dry air in place will provide another night of clear skies. This
should prove for efficient radiative cooling, although overnight
lows should be a few degrees higher given the loss of CAA behind
the departed cold front. Nonetheless, most locations should again
see low temperatures bottoming out in the upper 30s/40s, while
coastal locations will see lows in the low to mid 50s.
Tomorrow, the beginnings of a pattern shift arrive as the
previously dominant surface high pushes off to the east. This will
result in a transition to southwest winds by late morning and
eventually south winds by late tomorrow night. With this shift
providing a return of WAA/moisture advection, we will begin a
gradual warming and moistening trend that will last through the
duration of the weekend. Daytime highs will reach the lower/mid
80s at most locations, while overnight lows will sit mainly in the
50s area-wide.
Cady
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Friday through next Tuesday)
Issued at 306 PM CDT Wed Oct 19 2022
Looking at a roller coaster ride through the period with onshore
flow bringing humid airmass back into the region starting
Friday...with surface dewpoints rising from the 50s to perhaps upper
60s during the Friday through Sunday period. This should set the
stage for a period of rain and thunderstorms as a front sweeps
across the area early next week, mainly Monday and Tuesday.
This general scenario is supported by most of the various synoptic
models but as usual the models differ in the details. The GFS is
most aggressive with the moisture return and the speed of the front,
pushing a band of potentially moderate rain and thunderstorms from
NW to SE across the forecast area Monday night into Tuesday.
Canadian model just a tad slower and less bullish with the rainfall.
ECMWF quite a bit different...slower and less progressive with cold
front...stalling out near the coast as a frontal low...related to
remnants of EPAC tropical cyclone...brings a potentially significant
period of rain to the area on Wednesday...basically 36 hours later
than the GFS would portray. The ECMWF rainfall also would be
different in character...with overrunning on the cool side of that
coastal trough...whereas GFS more associated with fast moving cold
front. The GFS by contrast on Wednesday would be dry with the front
well SE. GFS has been more consistent but model differences reflect
the uncertainty in the forecast especially in the Monday through
Wednesday time period, as far as the timing and amount of rainfall.
Reilly
&&
.AVIATION...
(18Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 1238 PM CDT Wed Oct 19 2022
VFR conditions are expected to prevail for the duration of the TAF
period. North winds continue this afternoon, generally remaining
below 10 knots before becoming light and variable overnight.
Southwest winds develop by late tomorrow morning, but remain at or
below 10 knots. Clear skies are expected throughout the period.
Cady
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 306 PM CDT Wed Oct 19 2022
Offshore flow this afternoon will continue to diminish then become
variable as surface ridge crosses the waters from NW to SE. On
Thursday on backside of ridge the low level flow will shift to be
from the S to SW and generally light. Gradient will generally
increase ahead of an approaching cold front over the weekend...with
a corresponding increase in wind speeds and seas. Wind speeds may
approach SCA criteria by Monday along with a chance of showers and
thunderstorms. Forecast somewhat uncertain early next week with a
number of factors at play including the timing of an approaching
cold front and perhaps the remnants of Eastern Pacific tropical
cyclone crossing Mexico and into the Gulf.
Reilly
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 45 84 55 86 / 0 0 0 0
Houston (IAH) 44 83 57 86 / 0 0 0 0
Galveston (GLS) 57 78 70 81 / 0 0 0 0
However, the the potential lead is buried...that is some EPAC tropical moisture...that could feed into along a stalled or slow moving front.
I doubt we see an October 1994 scenario, but something to keep an eye on.00
FXUS64 KHGX 192011
AFDHGX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
311 PM CDT Wed Oct 19 2022
...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...
.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Thursday Night)
Issued at 306 PM CDT Wed Oct 19 2022
It`s been an all around gorgeous day across SE TX as high
pressure remains overhead, with light north winds and observed
afternoon temperatures in the mid to upper 60s thus far.
Overnight, winds will become light and variable while continued
dry air in place will provide another night of clear skies. This
should prove for efficient radiative cooling, although overnight
lows should be a few degrees higher given the loss of CAA behind
the departed cold front. Nonetheless, most locations should again
see low temperatures bottoming out in the upper 30s/40s, while
coastal locations will see lows in the low to mid 50s.
Tomorrow, the beginnings of a pattern shift arrive as the
previously dominant surface high pushes off to the east. This will
result in a transition to southwest winds by late morning and
eventually south winds by late tomorrow night. With this shift
providing a return of WAA/moisture advection, we will begin a
gradual warming and moistening trend that will last through the
duration of the weekend. Daytime highs will reach the lower/mid
80s at most locations, while overnight lows will sit mainly in the
50s area-wide.
Cady
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Friday through next Tuesday)
Issued at 306 PM CDT Wed Oct 19 2022
Looking at a roller coaster ride through the period with onshore
flow bringing humid airmass back into the region starting
Friday...with surface dewpoints rising from the 50s to perhaps upper
60s during the Friday through Sunday period. This should set the
stage for a period of rain and thunderstorms as a front sweeps
across the area early next week, mainly Monday and Tuesday.
This general scenario is supported by most of the various synoptic
models but as usual the models differ in the details. The GFS is
most aggressive with the moisture return and the speed of the front,
pushing a band of potentially moderate rain and thunderstorms from
NW to SE across the forecast area Monday night into Tuesday.
Canadian model just a tad slower and less bullish with the rainfall.
ECMWF quite a bit different...slower and less progressive with cold
front...stalling out near the coast as a frontal low...related to
remnants of EPAC tropical cyclone...brings a potentially significant
period of rain to the area on Wednesday...basically 36 hours later
than the GFS would portray. The ECMWF rainfall also would be
different in character...with overrunning on the cool side of that
coastal trough...whereas GFS more associated with fast moving cold
front. The GFS by contrast on Wednesday would be dry with the front
well SE. GFS has been more consistent but model differences reflect
the uncertainty in the forecast especially in the Monday through
Wednesday time period, as far as the timing and amount of rainfall.
Reilly
&&
.AVIATION...
(18Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 1238 PM CDT Wed Oct 19 2022
VFR conditions are expected to prevail for the duration of the TAF
period. North winds continue this afternoon, generally remaining
below 10 knots before becoming light and variable overnight.
Southwest winds develop by late tomorrow morning, but remain at or
below 10 knots. Clear skies are expected throughout the period.
Cady
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 306 PM CDT Wed Oct 19 2022
Offshore flow this afternoon will continue to diminish then become
variable as surface ridge crosses the waters from NW to SE. On
Thursday on backside of ridge the low level flow will shift to be
from the S to SW and generally light. Gradient will generally
increase ahead of an approaching cold front over the weekend...with
a corresponding increase in wind speeds and seas. Wind speeds may
approach SCA criteria by Monday along with a chance of showers and
thunderstorms. Forecast somewhat uncertain early next week with a
number of factors at play including the timing of an approaching
cold front and perhaps the remnants of Eastern Pacific tropical
cyclone crossing Mexico and into the Gulf.
Reilly
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 45 84 55 86 / 0 0 0 0
Houston (IAH) 44 83 57 86 / 0 0 0 0
Galveston (GLS) 57 78 70 81 / 0 0 0 0
The EPAC fly in the forecast ointment: 100% chance of development.
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo.php?basin=epac
Some of the moisture in 5 days could be heading to Texas or GoM and get funneled into the FROPA.
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo.php?basin=epac
Some of the moisture in 5 days could be heading to Texas or GoM and get funneled into the FROPA.
-
Stratton20
- Posts: 5358
- Joined: Tue Feb 09, 2021 11:35 pm
- Location: College Station, Texas
- Contact:
Euro and GFS have about 1-3 inches of rain next tuesday/wednesday, don’t see much indication that the front will stall
Kewl...but if an NWS approved meteorologist says this:Stratton20 wrote: ↑Wed Oct 19, 2022 4:07 pm Euro and GFS have about 1-3 inches of rain next tuesday/wednesday, don’t see much indication that the front will stall
ECMWF quite a bit different...slower and less progressive with cold
front...stalling out near the coast as a frontal low...related to
remnants of EPAC tropical cyclone...brings a potentially significant
period of rain to the area on Wednesday
I pay attention...
The Euro historically has a much better track record on tropical systems than GFS and CMC.
It would be nice if it had been on a Friday or weekend.DoctorMu wrote: ↑Wed Oct 19, 2022 3:50 pmIt's nice, isn't it? DP of 19°F late this morning. Another Chamber of Commerce day today.
I'd say we're turning the franchise around, but there's nasty return flow this weekend before the next FROPA. The trough will be digging deep, so I'm a little more optimistic about some rain with the passage.
October 1994 had a stalled out cold front. There is also upper level riding over Eastern Canada. It was a complex setup that led to days of heavy rain.DoctorMu wrote: ↑Wed Oct 19, 2022 3:58 pm There's some disagreement among the models in time and chance of rain with the next FROPA among the models...
However, the the potential lead is buried...that is some EPAC tropical moisture...that could feed into along a stalled or slow moving front.
00
FXUS64 KHGX 192011
AFDHGX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
311 PM CDT Wed Oct 19 2022
...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...
.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Thursday Night)
Issued at 306 PM CDT Wed Oct 19 2022
It`s been an all around gorgeous day across SE TX as high
pressure remains overhead, with light north winds and observed
afternoon temperatures in the mid to upper 60s thus far.
Overnight, winds will become light and variable while continued
dry air in place will provide another night of clear skies. This
should prove for efficient radiative cooling, although overnight
lows should be a few degrees higher given the loss of CAA behind
the departed cold front. Nonetheless, most locations should again
see low temperatures bottoming out in the upper 30s/40s, while
coastal locations will see lows in the low to mid 50s.
Tomorrow, the beginnings of a pattern shift arrive as the
previously dominant surface high pushes off to the east. This will
result in a transition to southwest winds by late morning and
eventually south winds by late tomorrow night. With this shift
providing a return of WAA/moisture advection, we will begin a
gradual warming and moistening trend that will last through the
duration of the weekend. Daytime highs will reach the lower/mid
80s at most locations, while overnight lows will sit mainly in the
50s area-wide.
Cady
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Friday through next Tuesday)
Issued at 306 PM CDT Wed Oct 19 2022
Looking at a roller coaster ride through the period with onshore
flow bringing humid airmass back into the region starting
Friday...with surface dewpoints rising from the 50s to perhaps upper
60s during the Friday through Sunday period. This should set the
stage for a period of rain and thunderstorms as a front sweeps
across the area early next week, mainly Monday and Tuesday.
This general scenario is supported by most of the various synoptic
models but as usual the models differ in the details. The GFS is
most aggressive with the moisture return and the speed of the front,
pushing a band of potentially moderate rain and thunderstorms from
NW to SE across the forecast area Monday night into Tuesday.
Canadian model just a tad slower and less bullish with the rainfall.
ECMWF quite a bit different...slower and less progressive with cold
front...stalling out near the coast as a frontal low...related to
remnants of EPAC tropical cyclone...brings a potentially significant
period of rain to the area on Wednesday...basically 36 hours later
than the GFS would portray. The ECMWF rainfall also would be
different in character...with overrunning on the cool side of that
coastal trough...whereas GFS more associated with fast moving cold
front. The GFS by contrast on Wednesday would be dry with the front
well SE. GFS has been more consistent but model differences reflect
the uncertainty in the forecast especially in the Monday through
Wednesday time period, as far as the timing and amount of rainfall.
Reilly
&&
.AVIATION...
(18Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 1238 PM CDT Wed Oct 19 2022
VFR conditions are expected to prevail for the duration of the TAF
period. North winds continue this afternoon, generally remaining
below 10 knots before becoming light and variable overnight.
Southwest winds develop by late tomorrow morning, but remain at or
below 10 knots. Clear skies are expected throughout the period.
Cady
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 306 PM CDT Wed Oct 19 2022
Offshore flow this afternoon will continue to diminish then become
variable as surface ridge crosses the waters from NW to SE. On
Thursday on backside of ridge the low level flow will shift to be
from the S to SW and generally light. Gradient will generally
increase ahead of an approaching cold front over the weekend...with
a corresponding increase in wind speeds and seas. Wind speeds may
approach SCA criteria by Monday along with a chance of showers and
thunderstorms. Forecast somewhat uncertain early next week with a
number of factors at play including the timing of an approaching
cold front and perhaps the remnants of Eastern Pacific tropical
cyclone crossing Mexico and into the Gulf.
Reilly
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 45 84 55 86 / 0 0 0 0
Houston (IAH) 44 83 57 86 / 0 0 0 0
Galveston (GLS) 57 78 70 81 / 0 0 0 0
We could have a street flooding threat next week as a TC from the Pacific combines with a front over the area.Something to keep an eye on.Regardless some much needed rain looks to be in store early next week.
You do not have the required permissions to view the files attached to this post.
The last setup like this locally was Hurricane Patricia of 2015.
You do not have the required permissions to view the files attached to this post.
12Z models this afternoon have come in more potent but also more progressive with next weeks system.Such a setup would decrease rainfall amounts,but open the door for more of a severe weather event as the system ejects over the state.Still a few days to iron out the forecast specifics though.
-
Stratton20
- Posts: 5358
- Joined: Tue Feb 09, 2021 11:35 pm
- Location: College Station, Texas
- Contact:
Unfortunately not much of a cool down behind that system as well, typical, ill take some rain though, hard pass on severe weather though
Yeah, it flooded our entire backyard. I kicked the fence down to let water out. Water seeped into the house and damaged carpet, walls. We had 18 inches of rain in 18 hours.Ptarmigan wrote: ↑Wed Oct 19, 2022 7:02 pmOctober 1994 had a stalled out cold front. There is also upper level riding over Eastern Canada. It was a complex setup that led to days of heavy rain.DoctorMu wrote: ↑Wed Oct 19, 2022 3:58 pm There's some disagreement among the models in time and chance of rain with the next FROPA among the models...
However, the the potential lead is buried...that is some EPAC tropical moisture...that could feed into along a stalled or slow moving front.
00
FXUS64 KHGX 192011
AFDHGX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
311 PM CDT Wed Oct 19 2022
...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...
.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Thursday Night)
Issued at 306 PM CDT Wed Oct 19 2022
It`s been an all around gorgeous day across SE TX as high
pressure remains overhead, with light north winds and observed
afternoon temperatures in the mid to upper 60s thus far.
Overnight, winds will become light and variable while continued
dry air in place will provide another night of clear skies. This
should prove for efficient radiative cooling, although overnight
lows should be a few degrees higher given the loss of CAA behind
the departed cold front. Nonetheless, most locations should again
see low temperatures bottoming out in the upper 30s/40s, while
coastal locations will see lows in the low to mid 50s.
Tomorrow, the beginnings of a pattern shift arrive as the
previously dominant surface high pushes off to the east. This will
result in a transition to southwest winds by late morning and
eventually south winds by late tomorrow night. With this shift
providing a return of WAA/moisture advection, we will begin a
gradual warming and moistening trend that will last through the
duration of the weekend. Daytime highs will reach the lower/mid
80s at most locations, while overnight lows will sit mainly in the
50s area-wide.
Cady
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Friday through next Tuesday)
Issued at 306 PM CDT Wed Oct 19 2022
Looking at a roller coaster ride through the period with onshore
flow bringing humid airmass back into the region starting
Friday...with surface dewpoints rising from the 50s to perhaps upper
60s during the Friday through Sunday period. This should set the
stage for a period of rain and thunderstorms as a front sweeps
across the area early next week, mainly Monday and Tuesday.
This general scenario is supported by most of the various synoptic
models but as usual the models differ in the details. The GFS is
most aggressive with the moisture return and the speed of the front,
pushing a band of potentially moderate rain and thunderstorms from
NW to SE across the forecast area Monday night into Tuesday.
Canadian model just a tad slower and less bullish with the rainfall.
ECMWF quite a bit different...slower and less progressive with cold
front...stalling out near the coast as a frontal low...related to
remnants of EPAC tropical cyclone...brings a potentially significant
period of rain to the area on Wednesday...basically 36 hours later
than the GFS would portray. The ECMWF rainfall also would be
different in character...with overrunning on the cool side of that
coastal trough...whereas GFS more associated with fast moving cold
front. The GFS by contrast on Wednesday would be dry with the front
well SE. GFS has been more consistent but model differences reflect
the uncertainty in the forecast especially in the Monday through
Wednesday time period, as far as the timing and amount of rainfall.
Reilly
&&
.AVIATION...
(18Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 1238 PM CDT Wed Oct 19 2022
VFR conditions are expected to prevail for the duration of the TAF
period. North winds continue this afternoon, generally remaining
below 10 knots before becoming light and variable overnight.
Southwest winds develop by late tomorrow morning, but remain at or
below 10 knots. Clear skies are expected throughout the period.
Cady
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 306 PM CDT Wed Oct 19 2022
Offshore flow this afternoon will continue to diminish then become
variable as surface ridge crosses the waters from NW to SE. On
Thursday on backside of ridge the low level flow will shift to be
from the S to SW and generally light. Gradient will generally
increase ahead of an approaching cold front over the weekend...with
a corresponding increase in wind speeds and seas. Wind speeds may
approach SCA criteria by Monday along with a chance of showers and
thunderstorms. Forecast somewhat uncertain early next week with a
number of factors at play including the timing of an approaching
cold front and perhaps the remnants of Eastern Pacific tropical
cyclone crossing Mexico and into the Gulf.
Reilly
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 45 84 55 86 / 0 0 0 0
Houston (IAH) 44 83 57 86 / 0 0 0 0
Galveston (GLS) 57 78 70 81 / 0 0 0 0
https://abc13.com/river-fire-flood-san- ... n/1563118/
Remnants of Hurricane Rosa in Mexico, moisture from the Gulf of Mexico and a low-pressure system over the southern Rocky Mountains triggered heavy rains and vigorous thunderstorms across parts of 38 counties.
From October 15 to 19, southeast Texas saw rainfall amounts ranging from 8 to 28 inches.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hurricane_Rosa_(1994)
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Looks more like an inch of rain now. We'll know more by Saturday.don wrote: ↑Thu Oct 20, 2022 2:08 pm 12Z models this afternoon have come in more potent but also more progressive with next weeks system.Such a setup would decrease rainfall amounts,but open the door for more of a severe weather event as the system ejects over the state.Still a few days to iron out the forecast specifics though.
Hurricane Roslyn paid a visit to Texas back in 1986.
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/tropical/ ... n1986.html
Most of the heavy rain fell around Matagorda Bay.
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/tropical/ ... n1986.html
Most of the heavy rain fell around Matagorda Bay.
DoctorMu wrote: ↑Thu Oct 20, 2022 6:32 pmLooks more like an inch of rain now. We'll know more by Saturday.don wrote: ↑Thu Oct 20, 2022 2:08 pm 12Z models this afternoon have come in more potent but also more progressive with next weeks system.Such a setup would decrease rainfall amounts,but open the door for more of a severe weather event as the system ejects over the state.Still a few days to iron out the forecast specifics though.
Yeah the GFS and Euro don’t show too much now.
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Stratton20
- Posts: 5358
- Joined: Tue Feb 09, 2021 11:35 pm
- Location: College Station, Texas
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The bust potential for this rain is pretty high lol, wouldn’t be surprised if my area gets shafted lol
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