October 2022

[Cromagnum]

How far west would 91L be by the time that front makes a difference?

[Stratton20]

Cromagnum on the CMC run, it gets tugged into the BOC and pulled north but still well south of brownsville and kind of just meanders there, but would like get pulled N or NE because thats a really strong trough digging down into the gulf

[Stratton20]

Fingers crossed for the Euro and CMC runs! Big shot of chilly canadian air associated with a big dip in the jet developing, i suspect the CPC will trend towards below average temps in the 8-14 day range for texas, this trough has been well advertised in the euro and cmc

[Cpv17]

I wouldn’t have your hopes up.

It’s like me with sports. When I expect my team to lose and they end up losing it doesn’t hurt as bad but when I expect them to win and they end losing it stings like a you know what lol

[Stratton20]

Cpv17 im not, but its been showing up consistently and the CPC is trending towards it in their 8-14 day outlook, climatologically wise, thats usually around the time when we get our fist really atrong fall front, odds are increasing,
Im not gonna bother with the GFS, that model has lost all credibility this year

[Cpv17]

Cpv17 im not, but its been showing up consistently and the CPC is trending towards it in their 8-14 day outlook, climatologically wise, thats usually around the time when we get our fist really atrong fall front, odds are increasing

If I remember correctly I think we’ve been getting our first legit front right around Halloween or a bit before it past few years but can’t remember for sure.

[Stratton20]

CPV17 l I think its usually around mid month of October or something like that, hopefully it does verify as both models show rain with the frontal passage, also could potentially have an effect on 91L

[Cpv17]

CPV17 l I think its usually around mid month of October or something like that, hopefully it does verify as both models show rain with the frontal passage, also could potentially have an effect on 91L

I’m just excited there’s a chance of rain in about 7-8 days but knowing the background state watch that disappear.

[Stratton20]

Cpv17 watch by tommorow models will be showing a blow torch again lol, hopefully im wrong! Fingers crossed for that front

[Iceresistance]

Good grief, Daily SOI is nearly at +40.

But, at least there is this from the CPC.


https://s4.gifyu.com/images/Mid-October ... l-risk.png

[jasons2k]

I’m now experiencing my longest rain-free streak since 2011.

[Stratton20]

Their is hope for rain!

[Cpv17]

Their is hope for rain!

That’s quite beautiful

[Stratton20]

Cpv17 honestly kinda surprised how fast they pulled the trigger on above normal precipitation for SE Texas and the whole state in general lol, fingers crossed for that rain and at least some cooler temps!

[Cpv17]

Cpv17 honestly kinda surprised how fast they pulled the trigger on above normal precipitation for SE Texas and the whole state in general lol, fingers crossed for that rain and at least some cooler temps!

Hell it could still change being a good week to 10 days out. The SOI isn’t favorable for much rain and screams drought.

[Iceresistance]

Their is hope for rain!

Also a slight risk of Heavy Rainfall on the 13th to the 16th to boot.

[DoctorMu]

A definite maybe on rain next Wednesday/Thursday front per GFS, DMD, ICON.

I'm about to give up and start looking into lawn cactii.

[tireman4]

00
FXUS64 KHGX 061151
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
651 AM CDT Thu Oct 6 2022

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Friday Night)
Issued at 330 AM CDT Thu Oct 6 2022

A little more low level moisture will be present today, in
particular along areas south of the I-10 corridor, as a surface low
pressure moves into the western Gulf of Mexico. Showers and
thunderstorms associated with this feature is expected to remain
mostly along the offshore waters. In addition, with subsidence
persisting across Southeast TX and mid levels being fairly dry, rain
activity inland will be limited. On Friday, moisture will continue
to push into the region, increasing PWs to 1.1-1.3 inches by the
afternoon hours, resulting in partly cloudy skies for much of the
day. This gradual rise in moisture will also result in a subtle
increase in temperatures. The highs today will be in the low 90s
inland and in the upper 80s along the coasts, and increase a degree
or two on Friday. The lows will also follow this pattern with lows
overnight in the upper 50 to upper 60s, slightly higher Friday
overnight. But the good news is that a very weak cold front moving
through Friday night into early Saturday morning, will stop this
warming trend, and bring us back to highs in the upper 80s to low
90s for the weekend. Cheers to the "Ouuu Yeahhh" feels again this
weekend .

24

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 330 AM CDT Thu Oct 6 2022

By Saturday morning, a weak cold front will have pushed offshore
with surface high pressure building into the Central Plains and an
850mb high directly overhead. This is more of a backdoor front with
the bulk of the cold/dry air remaining well north and east of
Southeast TX and the predominant winds behind it being northeasterly
to easterly. Nevertheless it will knock temperatures down a few
degrees, so we`ll get to enjoy highs mainly in the upper 80s versus
the low 90s and lows in the upper 50s/mid 60s versus the mid to
upper 60s. It ain`t much, but it`s honest work!

An upper level cutoff low over the Baja Peninsula will keep the
synoptic pattern relatively unchanged over the weekend. On Monday,
it becomes embedded in the flow aloft leading to southwesterly flow
as ridging makes a comeback. Combine this with onshore flow
returning on Tuesday as surface high pressure pushes eastward
enough, and we have an ever so slight warming trend with western
locations reaching the low 90s again beginning Monday. On the
other hand, the moisture trend is definitely an upward one. PW
values increase to near and maybe even exceeding the 90th
percentile (~1.84") by Wednesday with an assist from deeper
tropical moisture pushing in. As a result, Wednesday and Thursday
are setting up to be the best chance of rain we`ve had in quite a
while. In fact, rain on Wednesday (October 12th) would land just
under a month since the last time we`ve had measurable rainfall
in the City of Houston (September 17th). And for those that are
curious, it`s been since September 7th for Aggieland and September
15th for Galveston. So you can expect today`s drought monitor to
become a bit more colorful...

Global models are still pointing towards a deeper upper level trough
digging down into the Northwestern CONUS mid next week that could be
the source of a stronger cold front towards the end of the week.
Uncertainty still remains with it being more than a week out, but
I choose to be hopeful! NBM temperature trends have been downward
after Thursday for the past few days. If I was doing a Lee Corso
style headgear pick for this, I`d have a cold front on my head...
#TeamFROPA

Batiste

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 646 AM CDT Thu Oct 6 2022

Isolated areas of shallow fog across causing MVFR-IFR vis for
LBX/SGR will dissipate from 13-15Z. Thereafter, VFR conditions
expected across all TAF sites. E-SE winds will pick up in the
afternoon but remain at 10 KTS or less. Winds become light and VRB
again by late evening.

24

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 330 AM CDT Thu Oct 6 2022

The period of benign conditions (light winds/low seas) continues
through Friday night. A weak cold front pushes offshore early
Saturday leading to moderate northeasterly to easterly winds and 3-4
foot seas that prevail through Sunday. At least caution flags will
be needed over the weekend as a result. Occasionally moderate
onshore flow returns early next week leading to 3-5 foot seas and
the potential for another round of caution flags.

Batiste

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 92 62 93 64 / 0 0 0 0
Houston (IAH) 90 65 92 66 / 0 0 0 0
Galveston (GLS) 85 72 86 74 / 0 0 0 0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

[tireman4]

Batiste is a funny one, I tell you.

Global models are still pointing towards a deeper upper level trough
digging down into the Northwestern CONUS mid next week that could be
the source of a stronger cold front towards the end of the week.
Uncertainty still remains with it being more than a week out, but
I choose to be hopeful! NBM temperature trends have been downward
after Thursday for the past few days. If I was doing a Lee Corso
style headgear pick for this, I`d have a cold front on my head...
#TeamFROPA

Batiste

[DoctorMu]

#TeamFROPA haha

If we're going to live in a d*amn desert, as least it could cool off...