September 2022

General Weather Discussions and Analysis
Cpv17
Posts: 6019
Joined: Fri Aug 31, 2018 1:58 pm
Location: El Campo/Wharton
Contact:

Cromagnum wrote: Thu Sep 15, 2022 12:08 pm CMC is on board with the Euro and GFS eastern solutions now. Besides Ike, have we ever had one this far north "shoot the gap" between Florida and Hispaniola and come our way? I know some have certainly tried it, but then turned north into Florida or Alabama.
Yes, there’s been quite a few actually. Don’t know the names or anything but I’ve seen the climatology tracks.
Stratton20
Posts: 4942
Joined: Tue Feb 09, 2021 11:35 pm
Location: College Station, Texas
Contact:

Looks lime the 12z Euro is beginning to cave towards the CMC solution
User avatar
sambucol
Posts: 1103
Joined: Wed Feb 03, 2010 5:43 pm
Location: Mont Belvieu
Contact:

Stratton20 wrote: Thu Sep 15, 2022 1:58 pm Looks lime the 12z Euro is beginning to cave towards the CMC solution
As in coming west into the Gulf?
Stratton20
Posts: 4942
Joined: Tue Feb 09, 2021 11:35 pm
Location: College Station, Texas
Contact:

Sambucol not quiet but very close, goes right up the spine of florida, ridging is stronger on this run, not as strong as the CMC, but a similar setup really, last run was out to sea, this was a huge shift west
Cpv17
Posts: 6019
Joined: Fri Aug 31, 2018 1:58 pm
Location: El Campo/Wharton
Contact:

Stratton20 wrote: Thu Sep 15, 2022 1:58 pm Looks lime the 12z Euro is beginning to cave towards the CMC solution
Like I said yesterday that’s a plausible solution if it stays weak from getting tangled up in the islands. It would miss the trough and get caught under the ridge building to its north and be forced further west.
User avatar
sambucol
Posts: 1103
Joined: Wed Feb 03, 2010 5:43 pm
Location: Mont Belvieu
Contact:

I shouldn’t have taken a nap because I woke up to the Euro going a bit west. I’ll watch this one closer. If it gets in the GOM that could be bad. Yesterday, if I’m recall correctly, the CMC had it coming in at Galveston/Houston. The CMC might have it right with this one.
Cromagnum
Posts: 2866
Joined: Thu Feb 03, 2011 10:42 pm
Contact:

Thing thing is completely exposed. I would not be surprised if it dies off completely like this.

https://imgur.io/LV6P42l
User avatar
jasons2k
Posts: 5589
Joined: Thu Feb 04, 2010 12:54 pm
Location: Imperial Oaks
Contact:

My rain chances for Saturday have been lowered down to 40%.

I’m shocked.
Cpv17
Posts: 6019
Joined: Fri Aug 31, 2018 1:58 pm
Location: El Campo/Wharton
Contact:

jasons2k wrote: Thu Sep 15, 2022 5:38 pm My rain chances for Saturday have been lowered down to 40%.

I’m shocked.
It never was supposed to rain much north of I-10 so it never should’ve been that high to begin with.
User avatar
jasons2k
Posts: 5589
Joined: Thu Feb 04, 2010 12:54 pm
Location: Imperial Oaks
Contact:

Cpv17 wrote: Thu Sep 15, 2022 6:10 pm
jasons2k wrote: Thu Sep 15, 2022 5:38 pm My rain chances for Saturday have been lowered down to 40%.

I’m shocked.
It never was supposed to rain much north of I-10 so it never should’ve been that high to begin with.
I was being sarcastic ;)
Cpv17
Posts: 6019
Joined: Fri Aug 31, 2018 1:58 pm
Location: El Campo/Wharton
Contact:

jasons2k wrote: Thu Sep 15, 2022 6:42 pm
Cpv17 wrote: Thu Sep 15, 2022 6:10 pm
jasons2k wrote: Thu Sep 15, 2022 5:38 pm My rain chances for Saturday have been lowered down to 40%.

I’m shocked.
It never was supposed to rain much north of I-10 so it never should’ve been that high to begin with.
I was being sarcastic ;)
Lol yeah I know. I’m just surprised it was a high chance there to begin with.
TexasBreeze
Posts: 972
Joined: Sun Sep 26, 2010 4:46 pm
Location: NW Houston, TX
Contact:

If current trends continue, all of a sudden Florida and the southeast needs to watch Fiona. The 18z gfs took a big step towards the Euro. North Caribbean island runners love offering up suprises. : ;)
User avatar
DoctorMu
Posts: 6494
Joined: Sun Jun 28, 2015 11:58 am
Location: College Station
Contact:

Yeah, besides the 30% chance of Lucy tomorrow, this week's Omega Block become more serious next week. No TS is headed this week. If I had to guess, Fiona will be a Florida coast hugger on the Atlantic side. High and dry for us.

Dang it - hate to run the water tonight.

Any further waterings will have to be during the day, as we inch closer to brown patch season.

Image


Image
Last edited by DoctorMu on Thu Sep 15, 2022 10:30 pm, edited 1 time in total.
Stratton20
Posts: 4942
Joined: Tue Feb 09, 2021 11:35 pm
Location: College Station, Texas
Contact:

DoctorMu its simply to som to say that especially since Fiona is already a good 70 miles south of where models where initiating it today and its still moving to the WSW, if it keeps moving in that direction it could miss the weakness between the ridges entirely
Last edited by Stratton20 on Thu Sep 15, 2022 10:27 pm, edited 1 time in total.
User avatar
DoctorMu
Posts: 6494
Joined: Sun Jun 28, 2015 11:58 am
Location: College Station
Contact:

Yeah, between FL and Bahamas is the GFS solution. CMC has another attack on LA refineries.
User avatar
DoctorMu
Posts: 6494
Joined: Sun Jun 28, 2015 11:58 am
Location: College Station
Contact:

Stratton20 wrote: Thu Sep 15, 2022 10:26 pm DoctorMu its simply to som to say that especially since Fiona is already a good 70 miles south of where models where initiating it today and its still moving to the WSW, if it keeps moving in that direction it could miss the weakness between the ridges entirely
Almost irrelevant because almost all the models and ensembles feature a strong omega block.
User avatar
DoctorMu
Posts: 6494
Joined: Sun Jun 28, 2015 11:58 am
Location: College Station
Contact:

I'm not buying the CMC.

Image
Scott747
Posts: 1632
Joined: Tue Feb 23, 2010 9:56 am
Location: Freeport/Surfside Beach
Contact:

It's not called the 'crazy uncle' for nothing. Huge shift to the right with the Canadian and more realistic with the other guidance.
brazoriatx
Posts: 409
Joined: Tue Nov 08, 2011 12:09 pm
Contact:

Any signs of our first fall front yet?
User avatar
snowman65
Posts: 1193
Joined: Thu Feb 04, 2010 6:39 am
Location: Orange, Tx
Contact:

what about the cluster building up behind Fiona?
Post Reply
  • Information
  • Who is online

    Users browsing this forum: Ahrefs [Bot], Bing [Bot] and 74 guests