September 2022

[Stratton20]

We got absolutely hammered here, fans and students including me were scrambling like rats trying to get out of the heavy rain during and after the game, everyone got soaked, many wallets and shirts were ruined today

[don]

Picked up 1.72" today.

[jasons2k]

Everything is offshore.

My rain chances for today have been cut in half - down to 40% now. Sound familiar? Another big time bust for me. Why bother with “maybe next time” when my “next time” was supposed to have come and gone about 5x now. I’m over it. I’m glad I didn’t waste my money on fertilizer and brown patch control. I’d be stuck with granules to water in with sprinklers.

[user:null]

Yep, these forecasters suck.

[Cromagnum]

Fail cast like usual with these setups.

[Cpv17]

I literally picked up nothing and had an 80% chance of rain both yesterday and today lol. The mesoscale models aren’t showing any redevelopment over the area today due to the atmosphere being too worked over from yesterday and everything is offshore. This will definitely go down as a big disappointment and bust for my area. Hell, we were in the 3-5” zone and nothing lol

[djmike]

We had one local met that said “it MAY end up pushing far enough into the gulf that we dont see anything”. The minute I heard that I even said out loud, “watch that’s exactly whats going to happen!” …well sure enough.

I have ALWAYS told myself, when forecasts always call for 3-5” of rain and flooding. Its not going to happen. We end up with a 5 min sprinkle. Its when forecasts say we wont get much of anything but a few sprinkles when we get TONS of heavy rain and the flooding everywhere starts.

All week we were told this weekend was supposed to be tons of rain. For 3 months its been told my area can see up to 4, 5, 6 inches and then we get a shower and never get more than .50”. I know forecasting is a science and our guys thats put forecasts out are not psychic and dont know either how everything will play out, but it seems all summer long forecasts and even hurricane forecasts/predictions have just been waaaaaaay off. Just about the complete opposite of what’s mentioned every time.

I call this weekend a bust. Again. And no its not because “my house” just didnt see the 3-5” of heavy flooding rains. It just didnt happen again per what was forecasted.

[Stratton20]

It is not cool to say that forecasters suck, these people are doing there best to provide forecasts for the general public, my area was forecast to have heavy rain this weekend and I picked up a few inches. They are right and sometimes they are wrong as well, thats just human nature, lets not bash these folks, thats not cool at all

[tireman4]

And we got a boatload of rain in Humble yesterday. It hapoens. Still in a rainy pattern
.

[Cromagnum]

It is not cool to say that forecasters suck, these people are doing there best to provide forecasts for the general public, my area was forecast to have heavy rain this weekend and I picked up a few inches. They are right and sometimes they are wrong as well, thats just human nature, lets not bash these folks, thats not cool at all

True on that, but I don't think there is anything wrong with saying a lot of the models the forecasts are based on are awful. How many times have they been absolutely wrong this year already?

[Stratton20]

Cromagnum oh i agree the models have been wrong this year with these forecasts, but I just don’t think its fair for anyone to say that these forecasters suck when hell even the most reliable of the models haven’t been good this year

[TexasBreeze]

It is not only our local weather, but also the National Hurricane Center having fits about tropical waves and systems too alongside the quietness of the season so far compared to preseason outlooks.

[djmike]

True. I am amazed at the lack of hurricanes this season. I dont wish one on anyone but this season was again forecasted to be above average like every year. It is quickly running out of time. We would need 2-3 hurricanes to form a week now to catch up to what was even close to predicted. The gulf has been null this year. Good thing. But again, sooooo not what was predicted or forecasted. The US may go a season without even a devastating TS/hurricane. I do have to admit though, this is one prediction Im glad was waaaay off.

[Dls2010r]

I don’t think season is even close to being over. Let’s just be careful what we wish for!

[cperk]

True. I am amazed at the lack of hurricanes this season. I dont wish one on anyone but this season was again forecasted to be above average like every year. It is quickly running out of time. We would need 2-3 hurricanes to form a week now to catch up to what was even close to predicted. The gulf has been null this year. Good thing. But again, sooooo not what was predicted or forecasted. The US may go a season without even a devastating TS/hurricane. I do have to admit though, this is one prediction Im glad was waaaay off.

Damn dj now that you brought up a subject that i myself has been pondering,but was scared to post it in fear of jinxing it we will surely see action in the GOM soon.

[jasons2k]

It's one thing to say you're disappointed with the forecasts. It's another thing to say the forecasters "suck." That's not OK. They are human beings too. Saying that on Storm2k would earn you an unplanned vacation from the site.

[Stratton20]

Far out but im noticing some interesting things showing up on the models around the day 9/10 period, both the GFS and CMC have the cut off low retrograding back into Texas, which could help to create a weakness over the state, the CMC towards the end of its run has a strengthening tropical storm on approach to the tecas coast line, just something to watch as we go forward

[tireman4]

All,

Let me say this. The men and women who are forecasters have forgotten more than I will ever know. Do they miss, yes? Do they hit more than they miss? Absolutely. Manu of our pros come in, and we thank them so much, and try to make sense of what is hoing on. Make sure you all remember that when you are frustrated with an outcome you thought you might get. By the way, rain or not, it is cooler.

[Dls2010r]

It’s been a very wet month. Again careful what we wish for!!!

[Stratton20]

This map says be careful what you wish for, GOM is favored to be above normal in terms of precipitation in September… CMC sniffing something out next week