August 2022

[Stratton20]

Im frankly surprised the NHC still has the wave in the caribbean highlighted considering there is no model support beyond the GFS

[Rip76]

Sure looks interesting to me.

[Cpv17]

Sure looks interesting to me.

Judging by that picture it looks like most of that wants to head towards Louisiana. Hope I’m wrong.

[DoctorMu]

Monday is looking really wet for us. Mesoscale models are starting to come into play for Monday and they all look wet. Starting first thing in the morning.

Yep, the disturbance currently in the Gulf moves inland on Monday.

Watching closely. Dying fronts in the GOM this time of year can always spawn a surprise.

Exactly. Whether Lemonade or "Hard Lemonade."

[DoctorMu]

Someone's making a roux out in the GoM. It's bubbling. Carmelized andouille, trinity of peppers, onions, celery are next?

[sambucol]

Could the blob in the GOM affect the track of the first system in the Caribbean?

[Stratton20]

Sambucol i wouldnt* worry about the first system in the caribbean, the GFS is out to lunch, though its consistently cant be ignored completely , as for affecting it, no this GOM blob will have no effect really

[sambucol]

Not worrying. Just wondered. I didn’t see the blob yesterday in the Gulf. I was wondering could that blob affect system 1 in the GOM . Thanks, Strat!

[Stratton20]

Sambucol no problem! And i totally get it! Honestly this gom blob deserves more attention than the caribbean considering this one has a much more healthy convection with it

[sambucol]

Homegrown is always a possiblity

[Stratton20]

Even though the GOM blob likely will move on land something monday, I think the NHC might highlight this with a 10-20% chance, definitely looks very healthy, cant tell if its got any sort of spin though

[davidiowx]

The RGEM has some pretty nice precip totals through the end of August

[jasons2k]

For now, another miss. Several close calls today actually.

[don]

From HGX in regards to next weeks rain.

.LONG TERM...
(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 319 PM CDT Sat Aug 27 2022

It is still looking like the area will be getting a surge of deep tropical
moisture beginning Sunday night and persisting on into at least midweek.
The blob currently located across much of the western Gulf of Mexico
will slowly work its way toward the Texas coast and will spread across
our area during the first half of the week. High precipitable water
values courtesy of this system and weaknesses aloft will be supportive
of an increasing risk of locally heavy rainfall, especially in association
with any slow moving storms or where any training manages to set up.
Any high rainfall rates occurring in a short period of time or over
the same locations could lead to our usual minor flooding in low-lying
and poor drainage areas and also in/around road construction locations.
There might be a brief break in the heavy rain threat toward the middle
to end of the week as some drier air tries to edge in from the north
and northeast, but this fall in moisture levels will be associated with
a southward sagging front which could become a focusing boundary for
more showers and thunderstorms and the potential for additional locally
heavy rain. How far this boundary gets will be a factor as to where
the heaviest rains will fall.

[jasons2k]

The "blob" looks like it's developing a mid-level spin. This was depicted on the NAM, but maybe a little early/fast. Bears watching.

[Stratton20]

Call me crazy, but I wouldnt be that shocked if we see a quick spin up with this

[Rip76]

Yep

[Rip76]

Still cranking through DMIN.

[Stratton20]

It does appear the blob is at least sustaining some of its convection in DMIN, we will see if it does anything tommorow, has roughly 36-48 hours over water before moving land Monday afternoon

[Cromagnum]

Still cranking through DMIN.

The cloud tops warmed up a ton. We'll see what happens overnight.